Morocco v Spain tips: World Cup 2022 best bets, predictions and preview
Pipping both Belgium and Croatia in Group F, Morocco are set to embrace their underdog status once more against Spain in the last 16. Cam Pope picks a best bet.
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Football betting tips: Morocco v Spain
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (BetUK, Unibet)
The Atlas Lions’ World Cup campaign has been a roaring success so far, kicking into gear with a respectable draw against the 2018 finalists before a shocking 2-0 win over Belgium before holding their nerve against Canada, with qualification still on the line, in a 2-1 victory.
Morocco certainly have the look of a team buoyed by belief and if we look at the statistics, that seems to ring true. In terms of expected goals (xG), the group winners have overperformed in their matches so far, scoring four goals despite generating just 2.15 xGF.
They have also ridden their luck defensively, shipping 3.05 xGA in total but conceding just once against Canada.
In all three games, they have lost the xG battle and yet Walid Regragui’s men have consistently emerged better off.
And though, as with all overperforming teams, this level of overachievement is unlikely to last long-term, the beauty of knockout football is the way in which it rewards performances in the short term, unlike its league equivalent.
For this Round of 16 encounter, my attention is focused on a bet on OVER 2.5 GOALS.
Let’s break down this bet in terms of the price offered.
Firstly, the market-leading price of 13/10 offers a likelihood of 43.5% that the game will see three goals or more in 90 minutes. But if we consult Infogol’s modelling, the price majorly underestimates that probability – Infogol predictions put the chances of at least 2.5 goals being scored at 52%, leading me to believe that the price on offer is just too big.
I am backing Morocco, one of the World Cup’s most actively supported teams given geographical proximity and the availability of direct flights from Rabat – laid on specially with the event in mind – to continue their run and, if not directly upset Spain, at least outperform what is expected of them in the goal stakes.
Spain’s defence has been pretty measured; the three goals they have conceded is a slightly unfair reflection of their ability to shut teams out based on xGA – which stands at 2.23 from the group stage, compared to the three actual goals they have conceded.
But in attack they have fared well, almost doubling their xGF of 3.65 against Costa Rica (a 7-0 win) while netting twice in their remaining two games (xGF 1.99).
Both teams have been clinical, taking their chances when the opportunity has arisen and with Morocco’s giant-killing abilities clear to all, Luis Enrique’s side will be well aware that a lack of cutting edge could earn them an early ticket home.
To sum up, two teams performing well in front of goal have had their chances of scoring underestimated in the betting stakes – punters should take advantage and jump on the OVER 2.5 GOALS market.
Morocco v Spain best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (BetUK, Unibet)
Score prediction: Morocco 1-3 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1315 GMT (02/12/22)
World Cup: More from Sporting Life
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