Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked: 277.85pts | Returned: 307.92pts | P/L: +30.07pts | ROI 11%
Football betting tips: EFL
Sunday 16:00
1pt Draw in Burnley vs West Ham at 13/5 (General)
Burnley vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Ding-dong. Two of the division's powerhouses going toe-to-toe in their first game of the season.
Burnley have proved themselves to be masters of Championship promotion in recent seasons - albeit perennial Premier League strugglers.
Last time they were in the second tier they won 100 points to finish second and they got 101 points the time before en route to the title.
They host West Ham, a club generally priced at 7/4 for the title.
Although their financial might justifies that price, their business so far this summer doesn’t.
Nuno Espírito Santo won the title in this division with Wolves in 2017/18, but a lot's changed in the division since then, and at this moment in time there are some questions over how suited his defence-minded approach is to the second tier in its current guise.
Since his Wolves side, the vast majority of title winners have done it by dominating possession and territory, playing with a high tempo game. He’ll have to adapt.
That said, even if the Irons don’t sign another player - highly unlikely - an attack that features Jarrod Bowen and Tati Castellanos will stand them in good stead.
I’d file Sunday’s clash as a game neither side will want to lose.
Cliché but looking at early season games between recently relegated sides, they all follow a similar pattern. Plus, these sides have made a habit of starting slowly across the last few seasons.
Last term, Ipswich drew 1-1 with Southampton in the second game of the season. In fact, the Tractor Boys drew four of their opening five in all competitions and the Saints drew half of their other opening 12 fixtures.
The season before, Luton went without a win in their opening five and Burnley and Sheffield United only won two over the same sample.
And in 23/24, Southampton lost five of their first nine games and Leeds drew five of their first nine. Leicester were the exception, winning their first six.
But on the whole, the losing mentality these sides come down with has proven tough to shake.
At 13/5, THE DRAW appeals or you could back the 1-1 correct score at a general price of 6/1, if you are greedy.
Already advised
Football betting tips: EFL
Friday 20:00
1pt Fer Lopez to score anytime in Wolves vs Blackburn at 17/5 (William Hill)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Bromley to beat Barnsley at 5/2 (General)
2pts Bristol Rovers to beat York at 9/4 (General)
Saturday 17:30
0.5pt Femi Seriki to be carded in Sheff Utd vs Birmingham at 11/2 (bet365)
The EFL returns this weekend for the first round of 2026/27 fixtures.
It kicks off on Friday in the West Midlands where Wolves welcome Blackburn in the Championship and concludes with an all Welsh affair between Cardiff and Wrexham - who’s excited?
The first month of the season is the time to put all your preconceived ideas to the test. To get with the teams you fancy to go well, or against the clubs you think are in trouble, and back the players you think will hit the ground running. Price permitting of course.
That’s what I’m doing for the columns first proper appearances of the season, focusing on the most intriguing televised games, with a couple of Saturday 3pm kick-offs thrown in for good measure.
Wolves vs Blackburn
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Last campaign was miserable for Wolves. Two managers, three wins and 20 points.
But after a confusing start to the summer, the Rob Edwards debacle, things are starting to take shape at Molineux.
Despite appearing in Raul Jimenez's announcement video, the Old Gold parted ways with Edwards.
At first glance it seems hasty, but once you understand Edwards is a TikTok sensation across the pond, it makes a lot of sense. It’s all about the content these days.
There’s something that the Wolves want you to know… ✍️ pic.twitter.com/YyuEW44Qqc
— Wolves (@Wolves) June 9, 2026
Cesar Peixoto will lead them into the new season and he’s blessed with a great squad. Adam Armstrong, Jimenez and Kieran Trippier are all proven at the level, Mateus Mane and Andre perhaps too good for it and with Jordan James’ transfer imminent (it could have been confirmed by the time you read this), their midfield looks stacked.
The most exciting new addition though isn’t really an addition at all though. FER LOPEZ was signed from Celta Vigo at the start of last season but only started two league games for Wolves before getting loaned back.
He’s returned to the club and has had a good impact this summer making three appearances in pre-season and scoring three goals. He adds real quality to their attack, operating behind Armstrong alongside Mane.
Lopez’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals at 17/5, although I wouldn’t put anyone off the 7/5 available for him to score or assist.
Opponents Blackburn look set for a long old season. A poorly run club that has been circling the drain for several of the last few seasons.
Tony Mowbray returns for his second spell but this looks like a task too big for one of the nicest men in football.
Barnsley vs Bromley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
The love affair with BROMLEY continues.
I’ve already waxed lyrical about them in my outright preview, but here are the bullet points.
Andy Woodman has had the Ravens on an upward trajectory since he joined the club.
They finished in the top half of League Two in their first season in the EFL, then won the title at an antepost price of 40/1 in the following campaign.
Now, they're in uncharted waters once again: League One. And although the bookies don’t rate them, I fancy Bromley to upset the odds again this season, starting with this trip to Oakwell.
They’re direct, physical and as fit as it gets, as well as being set-piece monsters.
It’s a concoction which will certainly makes life difficult for Barnsley, who didn’t make the best start to the season last weekend.
The Reds were outplayed by Wigan in the first round of the Carabao Cup. Although they went on to win the tie on penalties, they should’ve been three down at half-time.
Daniel Stendel - returning for a second spell as boss after leaving in 2019 - showed his class with a substitution and tactical tweak at the break, and while Barnsley did improve, it must have been a real eye opener for Stendel regarding the size of the task at hand.
At 5/2, backing the visitors TO WIN is the bet.
It isn't unusual for newly-promoted sides to hit the ground running in League One.
Last season's promoted crop all started the campaign well. Doncaster won their first three, Bradford went unbeaten in nine (W7), Wimbledon won four of their opening six in all competitions and even Port Vale picked up points in three of their opening four.
The season before, Crawley won their opening three games, Stockport won three of their opening four, Mansfield went three unbeaten and Wrexham took 13 points from the first 15 on offer.
York vs Bristol Rovers
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
York were promoted from the National League with 108 points, scoring 114 goals and conceding less than a goal a game.
They clinched the title in the most dramatic fashion as well, scoring a goal in the 103rd minute to pip Rochdale to top spot.
Morale must have been at an all time high heading into the summer. Back in the EFL, playing in a shiny - albeit strange - new stadium, EFL quality throughout the squad and a front two who score for fun. No wonder they are one of the favourites in the outright betting.
Then mother-and-son duo owners/majority stakeholders Matt Uggla and Julie-Anne Uggla made the galling decision to let last season's manager Stuart Maynard go.
They did the same thing the season before with Adam Hinshelwood after his side picked up 96 points and finished second a little under a year ago.
Any hope that 394 Sports Ltd had an ace of an appointment up their sleeve was quashed with the arrival of Scott Lindsey, who barring promotion with Crawley, has a poor record at this level.
The decision hasn’t gone down well with the Minstermen faithful either, who were booing before their Carabao Cup preliminary clash with Crawley even kicked off.
The Ugglas were serenaded with "we want Maynard back and stand up if you love Maynard" as Crawley (4/1) beat them 2-0.
Lindsey also had to cop "you’re getting sacked in the morning" 80 minutes into his tenure, sung by all four sides of the ground.
Only 80 minutes into his first game as #YCFC coach and Scott Lindsey has "you're getting sacked in the morning" sung to him.
— ßen (@BCAFCBH) August 3, 2026
League 2 inconvenience is undefeated. pic.twitter.com/tJ6HvLyggP
Lindsey’s choice to shrug the chants off with “it is what it is” yielded the exact response expected and now I sense there’s an opportunity to use this hostility to our advantage.
BRISTOL ROVERS are in town on Saturday, managed by the wily, slimline Steve Evans.
The Gas went from a League Two relegation battle to finishing the season like a train, going unbeaten across their last nine, winning eight of those games and 10 of their last 13.
No doubt they’ll thrive in this atmosphere. Evans will be more then happy to dish out a direct, physical welcome to the fourth tier.
It’s worth noting the sides promoted from the National League last season struggled to adapt. Oldham didn’t win any of their first eight games and Barnet lost their first three.
The season before, Bromley lost three of their first five and Chesterfield only won one of their opening six.
In 2023/24 even Wrexham only won one of their opening seven, while Notts County lost their first two.
At 9/4, backing Bristol Rovers TO WIN is the bet.
Sheffield United vs Birmingham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
To Bramall Lane where my beloved Sheffield United take on Birmingham.
The Blades are expected to struggle this season, relative to their financial might and recent success. The parachute payments ended this summer but if anything this, alongside the lack of expectation will only spur Chris Wilder on.
That's not to say they have been priced as underdogs here, in fact at 6/4, the hosts are marginal favourites. Blues are expected to compete at the top of the division, but their poor away form must have been a factor in the 1x2 prices.
Last season, only three teams took fewer points than Chris Davies’ side on the road, two of whom were relegated.
With 12 cards, two of which were red, flashed across last season's league meetings, cards are probably the best way in here; the Sky cameras should only add to the bite.
FEMI SERIKI’s price of 11/2 TO BE CARDED is the standout.
A career cards per 90 average of 0.20 suggests this is slightly too big but it is also worth noting he was carded last Sunday against Mansfield in the cup.
He should also be opposing Jay Stansfield, who’s no stranger to a card himself, picking up 10 last season and drawing just shy of two fouls per 90 minutes.
Odds correct at 15:25 BST (13/08/26)
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