Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30
0.5pt Mads Andersen to score anytime in Peterborough vs Luton at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00
3pts Under 2.5 goals in Barrow vs MK Dons at 8/11 (General)
0.5pt No first goalscorer in Barrow vs MK Dons at 17/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Stockport to beat Wycombe at 9/5 (General)
Saturday 17:30
2pts Both teams to score in Sheffield United vs Bristol City at 5/6 (Coral)
There was no column last weekend because I was sick. Apologies.
To be honest though, I don’t know if I was exactly champing at the bit for the new season. It might have been the fever but it’s been a long, lovely summer and with no football, I’ve had no responsibilities.
A concoction of circumstances that have turned me ever so slightly feral, and the thought of getting stuck into a new campaign with the scars from the last one still very raw didn’t appeal.
Then, Luton against Wimbledon charmed the pants off me. What a game under the lights. And across the weekend I realised I’d not lost interest in football, I’d just missed it and I hadn’t gambled in months.
"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in". [Gesticulates in Italian].
Reinvigorated, I’ve spent the week getting my teeth stuck into the EFL and remembered all the fun you can have.
This weekend gets under way with Thursday and Friday night EFL games, with the latter a cracking clash at St. Andrew's between a well-backed Birmingham side and the pre-season title favourites Ipswich.
Peterborough vs Luton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a battle between a good set-piece side and a not so good at defending set-pieces side.
Luton racked up an xG of 19.15 from dead balls in the Championship last term (fourth most in the division), netting 17 times (joint-third most goals). Opponents Peterborough conceded an xGA of 20.61 and 25 actual goals from them last season. It is also worth noting that 10 centre backs netted against Posh last term.
MADS ANDERSEN could be the Hatters prime set-piece threat at London Road and his price TO SCORE ANYTIME is worth a poke.
With eight goals across 201 league appearances, Andersen hasn’t scored as many goals as I expected. Injuries have restricted him to 10 starts across the last three seasons though, netting once against West Ham in the Premier League.
Barrow vs MK Dons
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Paul Warne has overseen five games as MK Dons boss and there’s been a combined total of one goal scored.
Unsurprisingly, his side are creating barely anything. Across those 450 minutes of League Two action they managed 13 shots, three ‘big chances’ and a combined total xG of 3.16.
To their credit, they do not give much away either. Per game, their opponents have averaged; 0.62 xG, 0.6 shots on target and 0.2 ‘big chances’.
Next up are Barrow, a side that has drawn three of their last five games 0-0; this one doesn’t take a genius.
UNDER 2.5 GOALS is 8/11 and NO FIRST GOALSCORER can be backed at 17/2. The latter is the same as 0-0 but covers us if the only goals of the game are own goals.
Wycombe vs Stockport
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I like STOCKPORT’s price TO WIN at Wycombe a lot.
Their opening weekend victory over Bolton was so Dave Challinor. They were clinical, never looked like losing but perhaps didn’t deserve to win; it is what top sides do.
I think this clash will be an easier assignment.
It might be circumstantial but Wycombe boss Mike Dodds may have tried to change his team's style over the summer. At Valley Parade, Wycombe had 69% possession and completed 394 passes, a big increased on last season - it is worth noting though that Bradford raced into a two-goal lead.
At the back end of last season, Dodds played the most awful, boring, stodgy style of football. His side failed to score in nine of 19 league games under him, they averaged fewer than a goal a game and somehow, Dodds managed to stifle Richard Kone who was bagging for fun before he rocked up.
Style change or not, Wycombe’s record under Dodds against the top six last season was rotten. In seven games (including the play-off semi final matches) they didn’t win a game, only scored one goal and conceded 11.
Sheffield United vs Bristol City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Sheffield United’s clash with Bristol City is the TV match on Saturday evening.
It’s a repeat of last season's play-off semi final where the Blades ran out 6-0 winners on aggregate but I don’t think this game will be as lopsided, a lot changed at both clubs.
At Bramall Lane, the new owners have brought new ideas. It is why Chris Wilder was sacked and why 11 players have left the club. Vini Souza and Anel Ahmedhodzic are the headline departures, two defensive stalwarts in United’s failed promotion push last season.
Wilder’s replacement Ruben Selles brings a new approach. The Blades appear to be moving away from signing Championship experience to developing young players and playing with a high-press.
In the long-term it could bear fruit but in the short term there could be some teething issues as the squad transitions and this could lead to a goal-laden game this weekend, especially with the hosts' shortcomings in central defence - loanee Tyler Bindon and Jack Robinson have missed some of pre-season with injuries.
Like their opponents, Bristol City have had a change in the dugout with Gerhard Struber replacing Liam Manning.
If his spell at Barnsley was anything to go by, he’ll want his side to press high in chaotic style. Again, this will be quite a shift from his predecessor's out of possession approach as Manning favoured a more controlled, structured block but the Robins certainly have the attacking players to play Struber’s way.
They could cause some issues for Sheffield United and the 5/6 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals.
Already advised
1pt Yousef Salech to score anytime in Port Vale vs Cardiff at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Leif Davis 1+ assist in Birmingham vs Ipswich at 4/1 (bet365)
Port Vale vs Cardiff
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Although speculation suggests otherwise, YOUSEF SALECH insists he is happy at Cardiff.
The frontman netted eight goals in the Championship after moving to the Blue Birds in January last season (0.56 goals per 90) and looks a cut above League One level.
All those goals last season were inside the box and although Salech didn’t net in Cardiff’s opener against Peterborough, he had four shots from within the box and notched up an xG of 0.38.
At 9/4, his price TO SCORE ANYTIME appeals at Vale Park.
Port Vale’s campaign got off to a disappointing start against Rotherham. They ended the first half a man and two goals down and although the second half was better, it was too late.
Darren Moore must shoulder the majority of the blame. Despite ending last season playing two up top, he went for a front three at the weekend which left his side a man light in midfield and they got overrun.
Although Moore did fix it after the interval, he cannot afford to mess about against Cardiff because they are a level above Rotherham, more than capable of ripping Vale to pieces if given chance.
Odds correct at 1805 BST (05/08/25)
Birmingham vs Ipswich
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Live odds, form and stats
Friday night under the lights on the telly.
Championship football I’ve missed you and what a corker to kick off the season. Two new boys entering the division through different doors square-off in the Midlands.
Birmingham, buoyed by a record-breaking League One title, host ante-post title favourites Ipswich in a game where I’d be leaning towards the visitors.
I haven’t got anything against Birmingham. I swear. I didn’t like how short they were last season in League One and I was made to look like a fool. I cannot help feeling they have been significantly overestimated this season though.
Tom has them sixth in his Championship predictions, Joe was saying he wouldn’t be surprised if they went up automatically in This Week's Acca's Championship preview and our resident "EFL expert" Gab Sutton believes they will go up - although he is a Blues fan.
There is a lot to like about them. They really are a club on the up.
Chris Davies' side passed their way to a record points tally last term in his maiden season as a manager, while St. Andrew’s has sold out as the club has again invested in the squad this summer. For me though, the Championship is another kettle of fish and cliched as it may be, they’re not the big fish anymore - (I like fish).
They’ll be pitting their wits against some big clubs backed by the wealth of parachute payments, one of whom they face on Friday, all with a squad I just don’t think is good enough for the top two.
As for the Tractor Boys, Kieran McKenna could look to the blueprint of Ipswich’s promotion from the 2023/24 season. At home they were gung-ho and on the road they were tough to beat.
No side took more points on their own patch that season (54) and no team lost fewer games away from home (5). What was particularly striking though was the difference in goals per game. Games at Portman Road averaged 3.96 goals and on their travels the games averaged 2.56.
Although I want to, I just can’t pull the trigger on something pro-Ipswich in the traditional markets, not on Birmingham’s big day back in the division. LEIF DAVIS’ price for 1+ ASSIST is worth a look at 4/1 though.
Davis set up 18 goals the last time he was at this level, and he managed 14 the season before in League One. With a career assists per 90 rate of 0.36, bet365’s quote on Friday is a lovely slice of value.
Odds correct at 1805 BST (05/08/25)
Odds correct at 1745 BST (07/08/25) *unless stated otherwise
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