- Jimmy's Punt: Staked 310.15pts | Returned 331.22pts | P/L +21.07pts | ROI 7%
Football betting tips: Saturday best bets
Saturday (12:30)
2pts Under 2.5 goals in Chelsea vs Everton at 10/11 (bet365)
0.25pt No first goalscorer in Chelsea vs Everton at 11/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday (15:00)
1pt Josh Sargent to score anytime in Middlesbrough vs Norwich at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Josh Sargent to score 2+ goals at 20/1 (Sky Bet)
0.25pt Josh Sargent to score 3+ goals at 175/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Mustapha Bundu to score anytime in Preston vs Plymouth at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday (17:30)
0.5pt Wrexham to win and Arthur Okonkwo to be carded at 22/1 (bet365)
1pt Wrexham double chance and Arthur Okonkwo to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
1pt Charlton to win and Will Mannion to be carded at 28/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Charlton double chance and Will Mannion to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
Easter weekend was good for punting, terrible for my achy-breaky Blades heart.
The scenes at Turf Moor and Elland Road on Easter Monday were brutal and the thought of another play-off campaign scares the life out of me.
For those unaware, this will be Sheffield United’s 10th attempt; we have failed nine times and lost in the final on four separate occasions.
I was relieved to see Chris Wilder deal with the disappointing end to the season with a touch of class and inspired by his optimism for the play-offs. I still can’t quite get to grips with the fact we were two points off Leeds on Friday evening and have ended up eight points in their wake.
That's the Championship though. Get over it, the show goes on and what a weekend of football we have in store.
The slate looks tricky, I have steered well clear of the 1x2 and got a little creative starting with a rare foray into Jake’s patch: the Premier League.
Chelsea vs Everton
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Home 11/20 | Draw 29/10 | Away 19/4
Chelsea’s clash with Everton has the distinct whiff of UNDER 2.5 GOALS.
Now Enzo Maresca has got his finger prints on this Blues side, he has managed to turn them into a turgid bunch of sideways, backwards bores.
I hope you’re happy Enzo.
Although their last two league games have gone overs, the previous four went unders, finishing either 1-0 or 0-0.
The run started after their 4-0 win over Southampton and ended with a 2-2 draw against Ipswich. Chelsea beat Fulham 2-1 in the league game since but there was a total xG generated of 1.15. Make of that what you will.
As for Everton, each of their last seven games have seen this bet click and nine of 14 since David Moyes returned to Goodison.
It landed in Everton's defeat against Manchester City, the draw with Arsenal and loss at Anfield. Moyes has a knack of frustrating the big boys.
At 11/1, backing NO FIRST GOALSCORER is also worth a punt.
Across the whole campaign, stretching back to Sean Dyche’s days, 15% of Everton’s games have ended 0-0 and six of their seven trips to top-half sides have seen two goals or fewer.
Middlesbrough vs Norwich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Away 17/4
All is not well at the Riverside.
Middlesbrough start the Championship’s penultimate gameweek three points off sixth spot, albeit with a goal difference five better than Coventry, the team they are chasing and (quite wonderfully) play on the final day of the season.
Michael Carrick’s side lost five games on the spin at the end of winter. He looked to have steadied the ship by taking 16 points from the next 21 on offer only to hit rocky shores again recently.
Their only win across their last four came via a very dubious penalty at home to basement boys Plymouth. Boro lost to Leeds, Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday and despite only conceding five goals across this four-game period, they shipped an xGA of 8.91. This shaking defensive form is what interests me here.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1/2, a 66.7% chance of at least three goals according to the bookies. With that in mind I have turned to the goalscorer market.
On Saturday Boro host Jack Wilshere's Norwich, with the former England and Arsenal midfielder having been placed in temporary charge following the sacking of Johannes Hoff Thorup.
It looks like Carrick will persist with Rav van den Berg alongside makeshift centre-back Jonny Howson at the heart of defence; Canaries striker JOSH SARGENT will be licking his lips given he still has a slim chance of topping the Championship’s goalscorer charts.
He is four goals behind leading scorer Joel Piroe but Norwich play Cardiff at home in their final game, the division joint-second leakiest defence at the time of writing.
Sargent is 14/1 to finish as top goalscorer with Sky Bet but I think it makes more sense taking his prices TO SCORE ANYTIME, 2+ and 3+ GOALS on Saturday.
- CLICK HERE to back Josh Sargent to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Josh Sargent to score 2+ goals with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Josh Sargent to score 3+ goals with Sky Bet
The frontman has netted 44 goals across his last three seasons in the Championship (0.58 goals per 90). He’s scored 11 goals across his last 14 league starts since returning from injury at the end of January and was at the double twice over that period.
Preston vs Plymouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 5/6 | Draw 5/2 | Away 16/5
MUSTAPHA BUNDU netted three goals over Easter weekend putting him on nine for the campaign.
Bundu's teammate Ryan Hardie has scored 10 times domestically yet Hardie is 3/1 to score at Deepdale and Bundu is 5/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME. Make it make sense.
With a goals per 90 average of 0.38, Bundu’s price is value and that is without considering his recent form, the context of the game and his opponents' shortcomings.
This match is must win for Argyle, while Preston have been dragged into the edge of the relegation battle by a six-game winless run in which they have conceded at least twice on five occasions.
Wrexham vs Charlton
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 2/1
This is a massive game in League One’s promotion race and it has top billing: 17:30 live on the tele.
Avid punters (to put it nicely) will know the presence of Sky means a rare opportunity to back League One players to be carded. And I am never going to turn a chance like that down.
Wrexham are second on 86 points, four ahead of Charlton in fourth. It means a draw will put Wrexham out of Charlton’s reach ahead of the final game.
On the other hand, victory for the Addicks would move them to within a point of Wrexham with a game to go.
Charlton host survival hopefuls Burton in their final game and Wrexham host nothing to play for Lincoln.
Oh the connotations, the sweet, sweet connotations.
The type of connotations to make a keeper act up, should his side be on course for the result they desperately require. And coupled with the referee appointment, keeper cards are a must.
Ben Toner has the whistle and in 39 appearances this season, he has carded a whopping 20 keepers.
Combining WREXHAM TO WIN and DOUBLE CHANCE alongside their stopper ARTHUR OKONKWO TO BE CARDED are two of four bets.
- CLICK HERE to back Wrexham to win and Arthur Okonkwo to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Wrexham double chance and Arthur Okonkwo to be carded with Sky Bet
The other two combine both CHARLTON TO WIN and DOUBLE CHANCE alongside their keeper WILL MANNION TO BE CARDED.
- CLICK HERE to back Charlton to win and Will Mannion to be carded with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Charlton double chance and Will Mannion to be carded with Sky Bet
I’ve had a point on Charlton to win alongside Mannion to be booked because that is the result they need, a point on Wrexham double chance and Okonkwo to be carded for the same reason and half a point on the other outcomes just in case.
Usually I nail my colours to the mast and pick a side, not in this game. Lets cover all bases and enjoy the ride.
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (25/04/25)
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