France welcome Poland in World Cup round of 16, James Cantrill previews the game picking out two best bets.
Football betting tips: France v Poland
2pts Kylian Mbappe anytime goalscorer at 21/20 (bet365)
0.5pts Kylian Mbappe hattrick at 22/1 (bet365)
Poland made it out of their group by the skin on their teeth.
Their most recent game with Argentina was both a great example of their limitations and a glimpse of what to expect for this clash with France as the South American’s and Les Bleus are two teams of a similar ilk.
The Red and Whites goal lived a charmed life against La Albiceleste, with Lionel Scaloni’s side generating an xG of 3.72 from 23 shots and missing six big chances.
Wojciech Szczęsny stopped Messi’s penalty well, then, Argentina's all-time leading goalscorer also scuffed a shot at the end of a trademark, weaving run.
Lautaro Martinez dragged his shot wide after being put clean through, then, Nicolás Tagliafico had a dinked effort headed off the line.
How Poland lost by just two goals beats me, and it was crucial that they did as goal difference proved to be the difference between them and Mexico.
They have a wasteful Mexico to thank, El Tri only managing two goals against Saudi Arabia, and I say only because the Mexican racked up 26 shots, 10 on target, and generated an xG of 3.05!
Czesław Michniewicz set up his side to contain and counter, though they did not do much of the latter as Robert Lewendowksi was isolated.
The Poles were slow and laborious which is why I think this meeting with France will be the end of the road for their WC campaign.
Maximum points from their opening games allowed the French to rotate for their last group match, meaning the big hitters could rest up ahead of this clash.
KYLIAN MBAPPE, Antoine Griezmann and Oliver Giroud were all benched meaning the world champions coming into this well rested which could see them blow their European counterparts away here.
The question is, how do you squeeze some value out of the odds on favours here?
According to the odds, Les Bleus have a 77% chance of winning inside the 90 minutes.
Despite a rocky start, going a goal down inside 10 minutes, Didier Deschamps' side cruised to a 4-1 victory over Australia and I expect this game to go a similar way.
At odds against, I think backing their talisman, Mbappe, to SCORE ANYTIME has to be the play.
Much to his disgruntlement, PSG’s frontman was rested against Tunisia, so will be raring to go and add to his tally of three goals as he chases down the golden boot.
Sticking along similar lines, I think at 22/1 a KYLIAN MBAPPE HATTRICK is worth a punt.
I touted this exact bet on the podcast for France’s second round clash with Denmark at 66/1, and with two goals to his name, Mbappe missed a ‘big chance’ on the stroke of full time.
Close but not close enough.
Even at a fraction of that price, the price about an Mbappe hattrick still represents value, especially considering the calibre of the opposition.
Mbappe has hit the double in 17% of his 355 appearances for club and country, taking home the matchball on 13 occasions.
Crucially, and somewhat unsurprisingly, the majority of these have come in his last couple of seasons as he develops as a player.
And as he goes from strength-to-strength in this tournament, I really fancy him to put Poland to the sword.
France v Poland best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Kylian Mbappe anytime goalscorer at 21/20 (bet365)
- 0.5pts Kylian Mbappe hattrick at 22/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: France 4-0 Poland (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1620 GMT (01/12/22)
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