Jake Pearson's profitable Beat the Market column returns to preview the upcoming Premier League action, attempting to identify early value.
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- Beat the Market tipping record: 31.5 points staked | +37.61 points returned
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leeds to beat Newcastle at evens (General)
For all the magnificent technical footballers on the pitch at the Etihad in Saturday’s lunch-time kick-off, there always seems to be too much control when either of Manchester City or Chelsea play.
The same certainly cannot be said about either Leeds or West Ham, who put on a wonderful display of quality-laden chaos on Sunday afternoon.
Leeds won the game 3-2, exacting revenge on the Hammers for the 2-0 defeat they had suffered at their hands in the FA Cup a week prior, but much more important than the result was the fact that Marcelo Bielsa’s side looked like the Leeds of last season.
Tomáš Souček’s absence was a huge boost for Leeds – Manuel Lanzini is a brilliant footballer but does not provide the same stability in midfield as the Czech Republic international.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Leeds 19/20 | Draw 11/4 | Newcastle 13/5
The match was open as a result, suiting Leeds perfectly, and swift moves from one end of the pitch to the other resulted in a hugely entertaining game of football.
With no midweek fixture to fulfil, Leeds will arrive into their upcoming home fixture fresh, and with the weekend’s win moving them nine points clear of the relegation zone, this game no longer has the same ‘six-pointer’ feel that it did prior to the weekend’s results.
Eddie Howe and Newcastle may feel hard done by not to have taken all three points against Watford on Saturday, a late equaliser earning the Hornets a point, but Claudio Ranieri’s men were good value for their draw, creating just as many chances as the hosts and ultimately deserving the 1-1 scoreline.
Newcastle need a result, particularly with Watford and Norwich meeting on Friday evening, but it is the current price of even money about LEEDS TO WIN that makes immediate appeal this week.
A rating system using closing line prices (with margin removed) from sharp books, is one of the ways I arrive at selections in this column.
By doing home team rating + home field advantage - away team rating, we arrive at a supremacy. The supremacy is then run through an equation – generated by the correlation between the historical supremacies produced and the Asian handicap lines offered – to arrive at a predicted handicap line for the weekend’s match.
In this instance, Leeds are expected to be 0.74 goals better than Newcastle, which would put the prices at a handicap line of 0.75 at about even money either side (betting to a 100% book).
The fact that the line amongst bookmakers is currently set at 0.5 means our system rates Leeds higher than the layers do.
Given we are assuming Leeds -0.75 should be around the even money mark, the implied price for Leeds -0.5 should be odds-on.
Backing Leeds -0.5 is the same a backing LEEDS TO WIN, so that is the recommended selection this week.
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