Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Birmingham or Draw at 9/5 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Ryan Allsop to be shown a card at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt No Goalscorer at 22/1 (bet365)
All in 90 minutes
BuildABet @ 23/1
- Birmingham +1 handicap
- Under 2.5 goals
- Ryan Allsop card
All in 90 minutes
An impressive win over Arsenal on Wednesday secured Newcastle’s second Carabao Cup final appearance in three seasons.
It’s quite an achievement to add to the success achieved by Eddie Howe in the Premier League during his three-and-a-half years in charge.
The FA Cup, though, has often been much trickier.
Newcastle lost in the third round in Howe’s first two campaigns, at home and then away to League One's Cambridge and Sheffield Wednesday.
Last term was a marked improvement, reaching the quarter-finals, but penalties were needed against Championship strugglers Blackburn.
In this season’s third round Bromley - in their maiden campaign as an EFL club - took the lead at St James’ Park and were level at half-time, with the Magpies eventually battling through thanks to two second-half goals.
All this tees us up beautifully for their trip to Birmingham City, a League One club with a borderline Premier League budget.
What are the best bets?
The timing could hardly be better, and not just because Super Bowl Sunday will provide the coverage with endless links to Blues’ NFL legend minority owner Tom Brady, who there's every chance will be otherwise engaged on the other side of the Atlantic.
Birmingham are unbeaten in 18 games and Newcastle aren’t exactly in the best of form.
Prior to victory over Arsenal they’d lost their two previous home matches to Bournemouth and Fulham, conceding six goals. Those defeats sandwiched a hard-fought win at Southampton, whom they fell behind to early.
Although a round further on, it’s remarkable how much this game mirrors the Magpies' trip to Sheffield Wednesday two years ago.
Again, their League One-leading opponents are on track to break the third-tier points record set by Wolves back in 2013/14. Again, Newcastle have enjoyed a strong season in their two other domestic competitions.
This Birmingham team are far superior to the Owls side which knocked Newcastle out in 2023. Wednesday were 7/4 on the DOUBLE CHANCE that day and with BIRMINGHAM OR DRAW at 9/5 we should back it.
The controlled nature of the Blues’ displays under possession-obsessive first time manager Chris Davies, a former assistant to Brendan Rodgers and Ange Postecoglou, has me willing to chance the enormous 22/1 that is available for there to be NO GOALSCORER.
Three of their past five games have ended 1-0, with nine of 13 involving under 2.5 goals.
Playing in to this same angle it also feels worthwhile taking the generous 6/1 about Blues goalkeeper RYAN ALLSOP TO BE SHOWN A CARD.
For a keeper of a team top of their division to have been booked four times already this season is unusual - for three of the cards to have been shown in home fixtures is more unusual still.
You can be sure the experienced Allsop, a 32-year-old veteran of almost 400 games, will be pulling out all the tricks to help frustrate their Premier League opponents.
Unless, of course, Davies starts second choice Bailey Peacock-Farrell in goal, which he has in two of the three rounds so far.
At least we'd get our stake back.
Team news
Newcastle could rest a host of first-team regulars, with striker Callum Wilson a possible starter after recovering from injury to come off the bench against Arsenal. Fellow understudies Joe Willock, Sean Longstaff and Lewis Miley may also come in.
Harvey Barnes and Jamaal Lascelles remain out injured.
Birmingham have a fully-fit squad to choose from.
Predicted line-ups
Birmingham: Allsop; Klarer, Davies, Cochrane; Laird, Dowell, Iwata, Gardner-Hickman, Anderson; Dykes, Stansfield.
Newcastle: Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn, Targett; Murphy, Miley, Longstaff, Willock; Wilson.
Odds correct at 2130 GMT (06/02/25)
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