FA Cup betting tips: Best bets and quarter-final shocks to back
With the FA Cup returning this weekend, our tipsters pick out their best bets for Saturday's fourth-round action, as well as some potential shocks that could be worth backing.
Football betting tips: FA Cup quarter-finals
2pts Crystal Palace to beat Everton at 21/20 (General)
1pt Middlesbrough to qualify v Chelsea at 17/4 (Mansion Bet)
1pt Southampton most corners (+4 handicap) v Man City at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Under 2.5 goals in Nottingham Forest v Liverpool at 8/5 (Unibet)
Bets are in 90 minutes unless otherwise stated
Who could cause an FA Cup shock?
This season's FA Cup has been littered with upsets.
The headline third-round scalps saw Cambridge win at Newcastle and Nottingham Forest beat Arsenal. Round four didn't disappoint as Middlesbrough knocked out Manchester United, Forest thumped holders Leicester 4-1, and Chelsea and West Ham needed extra time to scrape past Plymouth and Kidderminster respectively.
The fifth round was comparatively mild, with Boro's win over Tottenham the only shock, although both Chelsea and Everton made hard work of Luton and Boreham Wood respectively.
Forest, despite vanquishing both Arsenal and the 2021 winners thus far, are the longest price of the eight remaining teams at 11/1 to beat Liverpool at the City Ground in 90 minutes. As superb as Forest have been under Steve Cooper, Liverpool have looked close to unstoppable in 2022.
Southampton have held current FA Cup favourites Manchester City to two draws in the Premier League meetings, so could pose a real threat to Pep Guardiola's side particularly at St. Mary's.
Crystal Palace v Everton
Read Tom Carnduff's full preview
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: ITV 1
- Crystal Palace Evens | Draw 12/5 | Everton 14/5
Everton have been averaging a remarkably small 0.46 xGF on average per game across their last five in the Premier League, conceding 1.82 xGA per outing across that period.
That's right. Over the past five league contests, Everton have been averaging four times the amount of xGA to xGF.
At odds-against, the best bet in this one comes in backing CRYSTAL PALACE TO WIN. Everton may well be boosted by that late, late winner but the numbers are far from inspiring.
Everton's attention should firmly be on Premier League survival - even at this late stage of the FA Cup. Regardless of where the focus is, performances since the managerial switch make any opponent an attractive bet.
Southampton v Man City
Read Jake Pearson's full preview
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Southampton 9/1 | Draw 9/2 | Man City 2/7
Here we have Manchester City, the Premier League’s top corner takers, taking on Southampton, who have averaged the fourth-most corners per match.
The Saints have averaged 6.37 corners per game this term – 6.6 at St Mary’s – and while that is not quite on the level of City’s 8.6 per match, it demonstrates their ability to work promising position that are likely to lead to corner kicks.
The 11/10 on offer about SOUTHAMPTON MOST CORNERS (+4 HANDICAP) makes plenty of appeal. It is a handicap line that the Saints would have covered in 86% of their league fixtures this season, and it is one that they should cover at St Mary’s on Sunday.
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool
Read Joe Townsend's full preview
- Kick-off time: 18:00 GMT, Sunday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Forest 11/1 | Draw 5/1 | Liverpool 2/9
Five of Liverpool's last six matches have seen UNDER 2.5 GOALS and the one outlier only nudged over courtesy of a late consolation goal by Norwich in the previous round's 2-1 victory.
Stretching back a little further, nine of Liverpool's past 12 have gone under, which makes the standout 8/5 price impossible to ignore.
Forest have shown they can more than match Premier League opposition, knocking out Arsenal and Leicester, and with the Premier League giants so short for victory, I'm happy to avoid that angle and bank on a stubborn Forest making this a low-scoring affair.
Middlesbrough v Chelsea
Read Joe Townsend's full preview
- Kick-off time: 17:15 GMT, Saturday
- TV channel: BBC One
- Middlesbrough 6/1 | Draw 7/2 | Chelsea 4/9
Given each side's route to the last eight, and the well-publicised circumstances of Chelsea's build-up, it's difficult to look beyond the opening tie of the weekend for the most likely quarter-final shock.
Chris Wilder has overseen quite the turnaround at Middlesbrough, with their rise up the Sky Bet Championship table built on a run of nine straight home wins.
Having beaten Manchester United on penalties at Old Trafford and Tottenham in extra-time at the Riverside, Wilder's men will certainly fancy their chances. Boro were a respective 9/1 and 4/1 to win those ties in 90 minutes, and are a best price of 17/2 to beat Chelsea.
With no away fans in the stadium, and the visitors having restrictions placed on their travel - even with the added complication of playing in Lille on Wednesday night - that is an enticing price.
But the 17/4 about MIDDLESBROUGH TO QUALIFY is good enough for me, covering us for a 90-minute, extra-time and shootout victory for the Championship side.
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