Southampton v Man City tips: FA Cup best bets and preview
Jake Pearson previews the FA Cup quarter-final between Southampton and Manchester City, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Southampton most corners (+4 handicap) at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Southampton’s route to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup hasn’t exactly been the smoothest, needing extra time to get the better of Sky Bet Championship sides Swansea and Coventry.
Somewhat ironically, their most straightforward tie in this competition so far came against fellow Premier League side West Ham in the last round, Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men running out 3-1 winners against the Hammers.
That victory over David Moyes’ side came at the end of a run of six matches without defeat for the Saints though, and as is the up-and-down nature of this club, Southampton now find themselves arriving into their fixture against Manchester City on the back of three successive losses.
City themselves arrive into the tie in a bit of a rut – a rut for Manchester City that is – without a win in their last two, drawing 0-0 against both Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League and Crystal Palace in the Premier League.
If the prices are anything to go by though, the layers certainly expect the Citizens to snap that streak here, Pep Guardiola’s men as short as 1/4 in places to brush Southampton aside in 90 minutes.
That may be on the stingy side, particularly given the Saints have held City to a draw in both of their Premier League meetings this season, but it is difficult to oppose the champions of England with too much confidence.
There is a large gulf in quality between Manchester City and Southampton, the league table tells us that, but one area in which these two are much more closely matched is their ability to win corners.
Nobody puts Ralph Hasenhüttl in the corner
Here we have Manchester City, the Premier League’s top corner takers, taking on Southampton, who have averaged the fourth-most corners per match.
The Saints have averaged 6.37 corners per game this term – 6.6 at St Mary’s – and while that is not quite on the level of City’s 8.6 per match, it demonstrates their ability to work promising position that are likely to lead to corner kicks.
There is reason for this as well, with Southampton residing in the top seven in the league in terms of shots per game, shots on target per game and crosses per game, all precursors to corners.
Given City’s ability to excel beyond compare in this department, coupled with the fact that Guardiola’s men are expected to control this match from the offset, it is unlikely that the Saints will rack up more corners than their opponents.
Looking to back Hasenhüttl’s side with a head start does make appeal however, and the 11/10 on offer about SOUTHAMPTON MOST CORNERS (+4 HANDICAP) makes plenty of appeal.
It is a handicap line that the Saints would have covered in 86% of their league fixtures this season, and it is one that they should cover at St Mary’s on Sunday.
Southampton v Man City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Southampton most corners (+4 handicap) at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Southampton 1-2 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (16/03/22)
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