Euro 2020 betting tips: England v Germany best bets and preview
It's a huge round of 16 game on Tuesday as England face Germany and Tom Carnduff has three tips including a 16/1 shot.
Euro 2020 betting tips: England v Germany
2pts Harry Kane to have 1+ tackles at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime at 8/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pts Kalvin Phillips and Toni Kroos to be shown a card at 16/1 (Betfair)
The loser of this tie will know how much of a missed opportunity it is. The Netherlands' shock exit to the Czech Republic on Sunday leaves these two as the only 'big-hitters' on one side of the Euro 2020 bracket - it's rare that you would avoid the six best nations in Europe in the quarter-final and semi-final stages.
Of course, the World Rankings has Germany sat in a low 12th while the Netherlands are 16th but there is little doubt that those two countries boast some of the best individual talent in the tournament. You won't get a run like this in many, if any, major tournaments.
For England, it's a chance to finally reach the final of a major tournament - something that has evaded them since winning the World Cup in 1966 - while Germany can answer their critics in the best way possible with an appearance in the last two. It's added incentive for a game already with plenty on the line - very little separates these teams.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Tuesday
TV channel: BBC One
Venue: Wembley Stadium - London, England
England 6/4 | Draw 9/4 | Germany 15/8
The Infogol model had this tie as the closest one in the round of 16. It gives England a 52% chance of progression compared to Germany's 48% - based on those probabilities and the odds available, there is little desire to delve into the outright markets because you're not getting value either way.
England's defence has been spot-on so far as they went through the group stages without conceding a goal. However, they could count themselves lucky to have zero in that column given how they finished on 1.7 xGA. It's a great return for individual games but equally shows that they could have conceded at some stage. Germany's attack can capitalise.
Both teams to score is around the 10/11 mark, with the no option also around the same price. We'd lean towards yes here given how we could see a couple of good chances and the situation of knockout football - although the 9/4 draw looks to be a better price given the pre-game percentages.
The first best bet in this game comes as no surprise to anyone who has read previous Bayern or Germany previews but it's a tip constantly worth backing until the prices are more 'reasonable'. LEON GORETZKA TO SCORE ANYTIME is 8/1 and that is far, far too generous given the attacking threat he brings to Die Mannschaft from midfield.
He scored from the bench in the 2-2 draw with Hungary but the expectation among the German media is that he will start in this game - Joachim Low would be wrong to leave him out for such a big occasion.
Despite playing just 62 minutes of the tournament so far due to injury at the start, Goretzka has posted two shots, one of which resulted in a goal and an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 0.18. It's hardly a surprise for a player who scored eight and assisted a further nine in all competitions for Bayern.
The one thing I don't really understand about this price is that he was lower than 2/1 to net against Hungary - a price that went as low as 6/4 in places. Regardless of the opposition, how can a player be so heavily fancied to score one week and then not at all the next? Germany will never be major outsiders in any game - an implied probability from 40% to 11% doesn't make sense.
You can point to England's defence throughout the tournament so far and the difference in quality between the opposition but it's such a significant jump and it's a price that indicates goals are fairly rare for the midfielder - that just isn't the case. It's a value play - a big one at that - but one that has delivered this season on a couple of occasions.
Delving into the statistics and one price that immediately jumps out is the 10/11 on HARRY KANE TO HAVE 1+ TACKLES. He's having a quiet tournament so far but his preference to drop deep has helped his defensive metrics this season - particularly when he has been playing for the Three Lions.
Kane had a tackle in 15 separate Premier League games this season and his showings with England give hope to at least one here at near enough even money.
The striker saw two successful tackles in the 1-0 win over Croatia in England's opening group match while he also had two in the World Cup qualification victory over Albania in March. Days later, he followed it up with one tackle in the win over Poland. Essentially, three of Kane's last five competitive appearances for England have seen at least one tackle.
In what could become a cagey affair at times, the tackle count could start to increase particularly when we take into account how important the midfield battle could be in this game. Kane will get drawn back into the centre of the pitch - much deeper than other strikers - and that should hopefully lead to at least one tackle across the 90 minutes.
I've found myself moving away from cards throughout this tournament due to some 'interesting' refereeing styles. They've clearly been told to be more lenient, allow play to flow more, but that has meant some clear and obvious fouls have been ignored and it's just not right. Luckily, some referees haven't changed their usual cards approach and the appointed official in this game is one of those.
The Netherlands' Danny Makkelie has shown seven cards in two games at this tournament but five of those came in his last outing - a 1-0 win for Russia over Finland. That gives hopes to bookings here and the fact that we may see more as we hit the knockout stages.
At around 16/1 with Betfair, delving into the bet builder and backing KALVIN PHILLIPS AND TONI KROOS TO BE CARDED looks appealing considering the fouls count for both in this tournament and across the season.
Phillips has played every single minute of the tournament so far for England and his performances in the heart of midfield have drawn admirers from across the continent. The statistics show how his fouls have broken down opposition attacks though and that could catch the referee's attention - he's seen an average of 2.3 fouls per game so far.
It's a fairly even split across the games with at least two in each. It's not a massive surprise when we factor in the ten yellows earned in the Premier League from an average of 1.6 fouls per 90 minutes.
On the Germany side of things, Kroos helped deliver a 22/1 winning card double when Real Madrid were beaten by Chelsea in the Champions League and we're hoping that he can play his part here.
His Euro 2020 so far has seen an average of 1.7 fouls committed per game - with 2.2 per 90 in five Nations League appearances this season too. That led to him picking up two cards in that competition but he has gone through this tournament having avoided a booking so far - his luck will surely run out with statistics like that.
With both players battling it out in midfield, there's every chance they will be among those who the referee will speak to on more than one occasion. The high averages show that anything double figures to one or higher is on the generous side.
While not putting any points behind it, backing HARRY MAGUIRE TO HAVE 1+ ASSISTS in 90 minutes feels like an interesting bet in this game.
One thing that stood out from Maguire's return to the starting XI was his ability to carry the ball out from defence and how useful that is for England. Alongside that, it's the distribution he brings to the table and he could have easily had an assist last time out.
Despite only playing 93 minutes at the tournament so far, Maguire's Expected Assists (xA) stands at 0.36 from 62 completed passes. It's not necessarily a surprise when we factor in he had one assist from an xA of 0.86 at the 2018 World Cup.
It's not just the open play distribution that makes this possible but England's strength at set-pieces - something which pushed them throughout their last major tournament with Maguire a major factor in that. His ability in the air creates the possibility of headers going back across the box for someone else to finish. With Germany likely to try and keep Maguire quiet at corners or free-kicks, England's best route to goal in this situation may be using Maguire deep to knock the ball back across the area.
At a best price of 30/1 with Betfair, it's certainly a bet worth remembering if you're searching for value in the assists market.
As mentioned at the beginning of this preview, the percentage outcomes make this game almost too close to call and that means there is little appeal in the outright market. If we were forced to choose, on prices alone, we may lean more towards Germany given their near enough 50% chance of progression to the next round.
That only applies if they win the game in 90 minutes though and we may need more than that to separate them. The cliche of England's failings in a penalty shootout to Germany may worry Three Lions fans in this fixture - but it may be the way this tie is settled given how close the two sides are.
England v Germany best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Harry Kane to have 1+ tackles at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Leon Goretzka to score anytime at 8/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
- 0.5pts Kalvin Phillips and Toni Kroos to be shown a card at 16/1 (Betfair)
Score prediction: England 1-1 Germany (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1130 BST (28/06/21)
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