Liam Kelly previews the rather unexpected quarter-final clash between Czech Republic and Denmark, picking out a value play.
Euro 2020 betting tips: Czech Republic v Denmark
2pts Denmark to win in 90 minutes at 11/10 (General)
Czech Republic earned themselves a place in the last eight with a shock 2-0 win over the Netherlands, exceeding expectations despite finishing second to England in a solid group.
Their reward is a meeting with the tournament's sweetheart. Backed by a raucous crowd in Amsterdam, Denmark brushed aside Wales with consummate ease, continuing an inspired run after starting the competition traumatically.
After spending the group stage in Copenhagen, this will be the first game that the Danes won't have the advantage of more support, but they still look to have the edge in this match-up.
Kick-off time: 17:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: ITV 1
Venue: Olympic Stadium - Baku, Azerbaijan
Czech Republic 14/5 | Draw 11/5 | Denmark 21/20
Czech Republic's victory in the round of 16 comes with a fairly substantial caveat. Matthijs de Ligt's red card moments after Donyell Malen wasted a huge chance flipped the game on it's head, handing the impetus to a Czech side that had previously struggled to test the Dutch defence.
Jaroslav Silhavy's side did look solid up until that point, a quality they have displayed throughout Euro 2020 in averaging 1.37 expected goals against (xGA) per game across their four matches, but fabricating scoring opportunities has been an issue.
They created chances equating to an average of just 1.11 expected goals for (xGF) per game in the group stages before benefiting from indiscipline in the last 16.
Fortunately, Patrik Schick is in incredible form, looking supremely confident in front of goal. That may not be enough to hold off a Danish side in seriously good form, though.
Kasper Hjulmand's men have recovered from near-tragedy and the brink of an undeserved elimination to reach the quarter-final stage, beating Russia and Wales in very convincing fashion.
Denmark have impressed from a data standpoint all tournament, too, averaging 2.39 xGF and 0.78 xGA per game, an amazing accomplishment in the circumstances.
Therefore, it's pleasing to see DENMARK TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES at odds-against here, a surprising price given the outstanding nick the Danes are in right now.
I'm happy to back them to keep the dream alive, a dream that started as a nightmare.
Czech Republic v Denmark best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Denmark to win in 90 minutes at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: Czech Republic 0-2 Denmark (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct 1630 BST (29/06/2021)
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