Euro 2020: Why England should fear Denmark in semi-final
June 26 marked the anniversary of Denmark winning the European Championship in 1992, a shock win for a nation that was only invited to the then eight-team tournament after Yugoslavia were disqualified as a result of the breakup of the country and the ensuing warfare.
Twenty-nine years — a number that carries significant meaning for Denmark in this year’s competition, too.
An emergency doctor that helped Christian Eriksen after he suffered a cardiac arrest in their Euro 2020 opener in Copenhagen claimed that the Danish talisman said "I’m only 29 years old" shortly after his resuscitation on the pitch. Thankfully, Eriksen has recovered enough to support his teammates, who are looking to repeat the colossal feat that was achieved in the same year of his birth.
It was a moment that will frame the narrative of Denmark's Euro 2020 journey.
Although the notion that Denmark are surfing a wave of emotion following such a traumatic incident is undoubtedly true, their performances thus far have been nothing short of exceptional in spite of circumstance, offering hope that a similarly stunning Euros win is a real possibility.
Defensively sound Denmark
Denmark were on the verge of being knocked out of this tournament after losing their opening two games, but both defeats are infused with caveats, masking admirably solid performances based on expected goals (xG). What is more, they've been every bit the sound unit we've known Denmark to be for years.
It was distressing to watch the Danes resume their match with Finland so soon after the Eriksen incident, we can only imagine how difficult it was to compete in. Still, they conceded from Finland's sole shot of the game in the 1-0 loss, a Joel Pohjanpalo header valued at 0.41 xG, and missed a penalty that would have most likely gained Denmark at least a point.
When Kasper Hjulmand's men faced group favourites Belgium in an emotion-filled Parken Stadium, they were victim to a clinical second-half display from a nation that had the resource to bring on Axel Witsel, Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard to support Romelu Lukaku.
Denmark held Belgium to only six shots in total, proving to be the better team according to both underlying metrics (xG: DEN 1.99 - 0.82 BEL) and the eye test, despite losing 2-1.
On the brink of elimination, Denmark dispatched of Russia with consummate ease, excelling at both ends of the pitch in a 4-1 win to seal a place in the knockout stage. An expected goals against (xGA) total of 1.16 was boosted by a Russian penalty (0.80 xG), otherwise limiting their opponents to five low-probability efforts.
Their round of 16 tie with Wales was comparably comfortable (xG: WAL 0.73 - 2.96 DEN), overcoming a slightly shaky start to dominate their opponents, winning 4-0 in front of a large Danish following in Amsterdam.
Hjulmand, who has been a calming influence as Denmark's head coach throughout the chaotic experience, deserves sizeable praise for a tactical switch that changed the game. After allowing six shots in the opening 15 minutes (0.43 xG), Andreas Christensen was moved into midfield, a seamless shift between a three and four-man defence, which could prove valuable in further rounds.
Denmark went on to yield five shots equating to 0.30 xG, completely nullifying their opponent.
A 2-1 quarter-final win over Czech Republic last time out is a sturdy example of the importance of game state when assimilating xG data.
- Game state refers to the circumstances of the match in which two teams are playing. Simplistically, there are three generic types of game state that a team can find itself in; winning, drawing or losing.
The Danes afforded themselves the opportunity to invite pressure by taking an ultimately decisive early lead, allowing their highest xGA total (1.70) in the competition from primarily low-probability chances.
Entering the semi-final clash with England, Denmark have conceded chances equating to an average of 0.96 xGA per game, allowing just three non-penalty 'big chances' in five matches — elite metrics in comparison with the seven other nations that have played five times in the competition.
High-class defensive displays are not the only distinctive feature of this courageous Danish side, though.
They've become far more expansive under Hjulmand, flashing brilliance going forward — even without the considerable quality Eriksen provides.
Collective effort in Eriksen's absence
At this stage of the tournament, only Spain have a higher expected goals for (xGF) total than Denmark.
Admittedly the small sample size, game state oddities, extra time minutes played and varying levels of competition in the group stage means some teams totals need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
However, Denmark deservedly sit in the upper bracket of the xGF standings given how consistent their underlying numbers have been. The Danes have created an average of 2.23 xGF per game in their five fixtures, moving into good scoring positions on a regular basis.
It is a level of production that indicates a true triumph of the collective without Eriksen, with multiple players filling the substantial void.
Wing-back Joakim Mæhle may well be the breakout star of the tournament at this point, a menacing presence on Denmark's left, both scoring and creating chances. Energetic youngster Mikkel Damsgaard has sparkled in his appearances, while Martin Braithwaite has been a constant threat for opponents.
Despite limited minutes in the group stage, Kasper Dolberg has shone deputising for Yussuf Poulsen, exhibiting the depth Denmark have at their disposal.
Can Denmark win Euro 2020?
Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised at how good Denmark have been, sporting a number of top individuals who ply their trade at big European clubs.
Leicester's Kasper Schmeichel and AC Milan's Simon Kjær are the foundation behind a solid spine, with Borussia Dortmund's Thomas Delaney and Tottenham's Pierre-Emile Højbjerg at the base of the midfield.
That foundation has allowed Denmark to be consistently good, even if early results never quite matched performances, posting a +6.35 xG differential across the five matches played at Euro 2020 – a strong sign that this squad is playing at an excellent level.
As a result, Denmark's probability of winning the tournament (11.6%) is higher than would previously be expected given the teams remaining. They shouldn't fear the tournament favourites and de-facto hosts based on their own form.
It started with near tragedy, but the story of Denmark's Euros will be told for years to come, no matter when their dream run ends. They almost lost a teammate a day into the tournament and looked to be out of the competition less than a week later.
Now, Denmark can't be dismissed from the conversation when discussing potential Euro 2020 victors. A lesson we should have learned in 1992.
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