England xG World Cup 2022 review after quarter-final defeat

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

• We rank every scoreline by comparing it against the range of possible scorelines that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created. The higher this ranks on a scale of 0-100 the closer it reflects the balance of chances created or the 'fairer' the scoreline is.

England 6-2 Iran

• Infogol xG: 2.41-1.47
• Fairness rating: 76.67%
• Bellingham 35', Saka 43', 62', Sterling 45+1', Rashford 71', Grealish 90' | Taremi 65', 90+13' pen

England thrashed Iran to get their campaign off to the best possible start, with only a contentious 113th-minute VAR penalty denying them a record-equalling World Cup victory.

The clinical nature of England's performance is exemplified by their six goals coming from 12 shots equating to only 2.35 xG; Infogol calculates there was just a 3.3% chance of that xG total leading to six goals being scored.

A huge positive for Gareth Southgate's men, criticised in the build-up for a lack of attacking ambition, was their creation of three ‘big chances’ (0.35 xG+) in the game - scoring all of them.

England also allowed just 0.34 xGA in normal time with a late chance for Sardar Azmoun (0.33 xG) and Taremi’s penalty (0.80 xG) giving the xG scoreline a misleading look.

This was an emphatic display from the Three Lions.

England 0-0 USA

• Infogol xG: 0.91-0.94
• Fairness rating: 98.84%

England all but qualified for the round of 16 despite an underwhelming performance in a goalless draw with the USA in their second Group B game - the 'fairest' result we have seen so far this tournament according to our ratings.

They now need only avoid a four-goal defeat by Wales in their final group match to ensure a place in the knockout stage.

Comparisons were quickly made with England's goalless draw against Scotland in the group stage of Euro 2020, but on that occasion Gareth Southgate's side created more than enough opportunities (1.76 xG) to win the match according to our model.

But the 0.91 accumulated against the USA is one of the lowest totals created in a major tournament under Southgate, and the fourth time they have failed to breach 1.0 xG.

The three previous occasions were their final group game against Belgium (0.91) at the 2018 World Cup, their semi-final defeat by Croatia (0.73) at the same tournament and the final of Euro 2020 against Italy (0.76).

Wales 0-3 England

• Infogol xG: 0.33-3.11
• Fairness rating: 96.91%
• Rashford 50', 68', Foden 51'

It was as easy as you like for England as they beat Wales to secure top spot in Group B and eliminate the Dragons.

The Three Lions notched three times and racked up over 3.0 xGF in what was a stellar attacking display.

It was the first time since England beat Panama 6-1 in the 2018 World Cup that Gareth Southgate's side generated 3.0+ xG in a 90 minutes game at a major tournament.

Marcus Rashford, brought in from the start by Southgate, scored a brace on the night to take his World Cup tally to three and was a constant threat throughout the game.

He has been extremely clinical with the attempts he has had, netting his trio of goals from chances equating to 1.40 xG.

At the other end of the pitch, three was again the magic number, as England limited Wales to just 0.33 xGA on a dominant night in Qatar.

Wales have had a torrid tournament, being comfortably second best against England and Iran, while only impressing in one half against the USA.

England 3-0 Senegal

• Infogol xG: 1.59-1.16
• Fairness rating: 62.01%
• Henderson 38', Kane 45+3', Saka 57'

England survived a scare in the opening half hour to ultimately book a quarter-final meeting against holders France with relative ease.

Senegal missed a huge opportunity through Ismaila Sarr in the 23rd minute - rated as the best chance of the match by Infogol with an xG of 0.67 - when the Watford winger blazed over from close range.

The African champions were made to pay for that profligacy as England did not concede another chance of more than 0.09 xG in the rest of the game.

In fact, between the 32nd and 84th minutes, the Three Lions did not allow a single shot from inside the penalty area.

In attack, England created three opportunities of 0.25 xG or greater - Jordan Henderson (0.42), Harry Kane, (0.27) and Bukayo Saka (0.48) - and scored all of them.

A clinical performance at both ends of the pitch.

England 1-2 France

• Infogol xG: 2.68-1.41
• Fairness rating: 57.02%
• Scorers: Kane 54' (pen) | Tchouameni 17', Giroud 78'

Reigning world champions France advanced to the semi-finals at England's expense thanks to an Olivier Giroud winner, though Harry Kane missed an 84th minute penalty which would have levelled proceedings.

England won the xG battle convincingly on the night, but did really struggle to create chances from non-penalty situations.

The Three Lions mustered just 1.08 xGF on the night, failing to generate a non-penalty big chance (0.35 xG+).

It was the first time since England's 2018 World Cup exit against Croatia that Gareth Southgate's side failed to generate a single non-penalty big chance in a tournament game.

France also struggled to create chances on the night, with Kylian Mbappe kept extremely quiet, but Les Bleus did seem to step up a gear for a few minutes before Giroud's goal, catching England off guard.

The ex-Arsenal man had two big chances in the 77th and 78th minute, scoring the second one after Jordan Pickford saved the first. Those were France's best chances of the game.

On the whole, England were unfortunate to bow out. Based on the chances created, Infogol calculates that the Three Lions would win the game 62.5% of the time.

Ultimately, it was Kane's penalty miss that proved extremely costly for England, who were reliant on spot-kicks from a good chance perspective on the night.

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