England v Senegal tips: World Cup 2022 best bets, predictions and preview
England take on Senegal in the last 16 of the World Cup, looking to book a place in the quarter finals. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game.
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Football betting tips: England v Senegal
2pts England to win and Under 3.5 Goals at evens (bet365)
England made light work of what many thought would be an easy Group B, though it turned out be more competitive than imagined, with Iran and the USA showing improvements on recent tournaments.
The draw with the US aside, England were mightily impressive, creating an abundance of chances in forward areas, while looking very solid defensively. The Three Lions have allowed just 0.66 non-penalty xGA per game in the group stage.
Senegal will be their toughest test to date, even without Sadio Mane, with the AFCON champions proving to be a very well-coached and well-organised team.
However, while they have generally been a solid defensive team, it's fair to say that they haven't really been tested.
The Netherlands have underwhelmed in attack so far this tournament, Qatar were, well, rubbish, and Ecuador were a team who had mustered a total of 1.85 xG across their two games before playing Senegal, firing blanks in six of their seven games entering the tournament.
That means this is the best attacking opponent that they will have faced, with England making light work of Iran and Wales while racking up the chances (5.42 xGF in those two games).
At the other end of the pitch, the AFCON champions haven't exactly set the world alight, averaging just 1.29 non-pen xGF per game.
With two of their four non-penalty goals coming from set-pieces, it's clear that is a strength of the Senegalese and may well be their best chance of scoring in this match, but, it just so happens that England are a very dominant teams from dead-ball situations themselves.
That could negate the main threat of the AFCON champs, and mean for a relatively easy evening for the England defenders, especially with star man Ismaila Sarr likely to be up against Kyle Walker, a player more than capable of taking on those one-on-one situations.
I can quite easily see the Three Lions keeping a clean sheet here, and that would mean just one goal would be required to progress, which, given the creativity we have seen from them so far in Qatar, seems likely.
Therefore, I like the look of ENGLAND TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS here at even money.
Gareth Southgate understands the need for control in these knockout games, and since taking charge, six of England's seven knockout matches across World Cup 2018 and Euro 2020 have seen Under 3.5 Goals, with those seven games seeing an average of just 2.29 goals.
They have the attacking quality to cause major issues for a decent Senegal defence, while at the other end of the pitch, the AFCON champions don't have the same advantage.
A controlled, low-scoring win for the Three Lions is expected.
England v Senegal best bets and score prediction
- 2pts England to win and Under 3.5 Goals at evens (bet365)
Score prediction: England 2-0 Senegal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1435 GMT (02/12/22)
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