It’s been a disastrous 2021 for Tottenham Hotspur, a calendar year of collapse we can trace back to the moment they were knocked off the top of the Premier League table on December 16 2020.
Things have unravelled at breath-taking speed since then: from Jose Mourinho’s implosion to Daniel Levy’s part in the botched Super League plans to the clumsy search for a new manager to Harry Kane’s refusal to turn up for training, Spurs has been sucked into a black hole these last eight months.
The root of the problem is Levy’s mismanagement and indeed his hunt for a new head coach neatly captured the baffling incongruity and mixed messaging of his decision-making throughout his tenure as chairman. Having begun the search promising a “return to playing football with the style for which we are known — free-flowing, attacking and entertaining” he landed, eventually, on Nuno Espirito Santo, a man far closer to his predecessor Mourinho than Mauricio Pochettino.
But predicting Spurs’ tactical direction under Nuno isn’t as simple as it first appears. He knows that attacking football is demanded, and while his Wolves outfit were hardly entertainers their counter-pressing and intricate interchanges among the front three spoke to a flexible and tactically astute manager.
What will Nuno's Spurs look like?
The 3-4-3 for which Nuno was renowned at Wolves will not be utilised in north London if their pre-season friendlies are anything to go by.
The Portuguese has instead gone for a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 in which Dele Alli plays a hybrid role of central midfield (when Spurs are defending) and a traditional number 10 (when they are on the front foot). In Kane’s absence Heung-Min Son has started up front, a role he may continue in the long-term as Bryan Gil comes in on the left.
But while there is excitement surrounding Gil it is Dele who will come to represent the Nuno project. The use of the 25-year-old is a test of Nuno’s man-management skills and his commitment to expressive and progressive football, given that Dele came to symbolise all that was right and all that was wrong about Pochettino and Mourinho respectively.
In broad terms, however, Nuno will be closer to the latter – albeit his compatriot’s conservative instincts have been updated for the modern game. His Wolves side tended to remain compact and in a safe midblock with a low defensive line, happy to concede territory and lure the opposition forward before counter-attacking in a three. But crucially they were also counter-pressers; enacting a quick wave of pressure after losing the ball.
This won’t be a passive Spurs side then, but rather a compact and gritty team capable of holding the ball for long periods and tackling high up the pitch - despite the general aesthetic tending towards defensive diligence. Instead of Mourinho, think Diego Simeone or Antonio Conte.
Wolves focused heavily on the flanks, using over or under-lapping wing-backs to link with the central midfielders and inside forwards to create overloads out wide – with Ruben Neves and the centre-backs tasked with playing raking long passes into the wings. Nuno is a direct coach both when counter-attacking opportunities arise and during longer periods of possession.
We have already seen this feature heavily in pre-season, as Lucas Moura and Stephen Bergwijn receive long passes and wait for support from Japhet Tanganga and Sergio Reguilon. The drifting Dele, who intelligently plays in the half-spaces that Nuno so expertly utilised with inside forwards at Wolves, is going to be a key player.
How can Spurs beat Man City?
Wolves beat Man City twice in 2019, first recording a 2-0 win at the Etihad and then coming from two goals down to win 3-2 against 10-man City at Molineux. The first victory in particular sheds light on how Nuno will approach his Tottenham debut on Sunday when he faces a baptism of fire against the current champions.
That 2-0 win was textbook Wolves and a perfect example of how to beat a Guardiola team. Happy to concede the vast majority of possession (76% to 24%), the visitors simply sat as compact as possible and denied City any room in the half-spaces thanks to some diligent work from a midfield three (Wolves went 3-5-2) that shuffled across to drown out Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, and David Silva.
City were reduced to aimless sideways passing and, drawn ever further forward, produced some reckless defending to allow Wolves to counter with incisive long balls through the high defensive line. Nuno’s side missed two one-on-ones before taking the lead through Adama Traore, whose pace and direct dribbling was vital in both of Wolves’ wins.
Spurs, then, will sit off City and presumably deploy the 4-3-3 to again shut down the half-spaces.
That’s easier said than done, not just because Dele and Oliver Skipp – excellent in pre-season – could struggle to fulfil their defensive duties but because City could have two players available that did not play in that 2-0 defeat to Wolves: Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish - Phil Foden has been ruled out.
Nevertheless Spurs can be quietly confident of creating a stifling game, especially with Pep Guardiola admitting after the Community Shield defeat that his team are not at full fitness and could make a slow start to the season.
Will Harry Kane play against Man City?
It seems increasingly unlikely that Kane will be in the matchday squad, despite Nuno saying he is available as recently as this week.
But going forward, the England captain's expected absence might not actually be too much of an issue because the direct running of Lucas, Bergwijn, and Son should be better at mimicking the patterns Nuno likes on the counter-attack.
Perhaps that is too optimistic, too detailed a view of a far simpler equation: Man City have a significantly stronger squad than Spurs, whose best player is absent because the opposition are trying to snatch him away.
Plus it’s often safer - given the catastrophic year Spurs are having - to predict the worst. The Nuno era begins on the back foot, his playing style and reputation underwhelming for many supporters, and so he needs a fast start; a statement win to avoid a toxic atmosphere again descending on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Depending on how you look at it, Man City are either the best or the worst possible opponents for matchday one.
