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Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Matty Cash to score anytime at 12/1 (Unibet)
In what feels like a bizarre statement to make after a 5-1 defeat, I don't think Aston Villa were particularly bad in their opening contest away at Newcastle.
Naivety is probably the most appropriate word to use when reflecting on their approach - something uncommon to associate with a manager of Unai Emery's calibre.
A home contest against Everton presents a good opportunity to record their first win of the campaign, even with a mounting injury list and the Toffees earning plaudits of their own last weekend.
Despite a 1-0 defeat to Fulham, Everton's 2.73 expected goals (or xG as it's more commonly known) tally was impressive, though not for Sean Dyche, who fell one step short of the full Shania Twain approach by revealing that he's "not that big a believer" in the metric.
Sunday's hosts are a much better side, and they shouldn't see the sheer amount of opportunities that they did last time out.
Even with certain figures unavailable for Emery, Villa have the quality necessary to secure victory, although there is little appeal in backing them to do so at prices of 4/6.
What are the best bets?
Instead, I'll point you in the direction of a big outsider in the goalscorer market, and one that I've had my eye on since watching Villa in the Premier League's Summer Series.
At 12/1, with 10/1 elsewhere a completely fine price too, I like the look of MATTY CASH TO SCORE ANYTIME in this contest.
The right-back finished last week's game with two shots, one of which was on target, and he should have found the net having blazed a close range effort over the bar following a counter-attack.
I mean, look at the above, while it was disappointing that he couldn't strike (although to be fair it was following up a save from Nick Pope), it outlines just how advanced he finds himself in attacking situations.
And that comes from the system during the series mentioned above.
In possession - which Villa should have a fair bit of on Sunday - they become a 3-2-5 with Cash effectively playing as a winger. It's why he found the net in one of those games.
With Everton's potential to sit deeper in games such as this, Cash will be allowed to push forward, although perhaps with the understanding that he will have to get back in the case of counter-attacks.
He failed to score last season but I'm excited by the potential of this bet in the early parts of the season - it's worth the gamble at the prices available.
BuildABet @ 13/1
- Moussa Diaby 1+ shots on target
- Matty Cash 1+ shots on target
- Idrissa Gueye 3+ tackles
- 5+ Aston Villa corners
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Cash's potential impact has already been discussed, while Moussa Diaby has been a great addition for the home side.
He joins Ollie Watkins as a striker when Villa have the ball, and he should see further opportunities to score as he did last weekend.
We're expecting the home side to be on the front foot which plays into their potential for corners. Hoping to stop them is Idrissa Gueye, who recorded six successful tackles against Fulham.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Team news
Aston Villa were hit with the news that defender Tyrone Mings sustained a significant knee injury in that defeat at Newcastle on Saturday.
He'll be out long-term, joining Emiliano Buendía, Jhon Durán, Alex Moreno and Jacob Ramsey on the sidelines. Leon Bailey is doubtful for the game.
Everton have some issues of their own with Dwight McNeil and new signing Jack Harrison out. Dominic Calvert-Lewin will also be assessed having missed the opening weekend.
Predicted line-ups
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Carlos, Torres; Kamara, Luiz; Diaby, Tielemans, McGinn; Watkins
Everton: Pickford; Patterson, Keane, Tarkowski, Young; Garner, Onana, Gueye, Iwobi; Doucoure; Maupay
Match facts
- Aston Villa lost 5-1 to Newcastle in their opening league game of the season, their heaviest defeat in their first game since 1985-86 when they lost 4-0 to Man Utd. They last lost their opening two league games of the season in 2019-20.
- Everton lost 1-0 to Fulham last Saturday in their first Premier League game of the season. The Toffees lost their first two games last season, last starting a league season with two defeats in back-to-back campaigns in 1955-56 and 1956-57.
- Everton had an xG of 2.73 in their 1-0 defeat to Fulham, their second-highest expected goals total in a Premier League game under Sean Dyche. It was the highest expected goals tally by a team who failed to score since Newcastle against Crystal Palace in September 2022 (2.83).
- Aston Villa faced 13 shots on target in their loss to Newcastle in their opening league match of this season, their most in a Premier League game since December 2012 vs Chelsea (15). In his 563 matches managing in Europe's top-five leagues, Unai Emery has only seen one of his teams face more in a game once, with Barcelona having 15 shots on target against his Valencia side in February 2012.
- Neal Maupay had the joint-most shots (4), the most shots on target (3) and registered a higher xG (1.35) than any Everton player in their 1-0 defeat to Fulham. Maupay has now failed to score in his last 26 Premier League appearances, attempting 29 shots (17 on target) and having an xG of 5 across those games.
Odds correct at 1055 BST (18/08/23)
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