Everton should be encouraged by the amount of expected goals they created in their 1-0 defeat by Fulham says Sean Dyche, even though he "isn't a big believer" in the metric.
What is xG or expected goals?
- xG uses a huge bank of historical information from thousands of attempts on goal giving each a probability of being scored.
- Chances are ranked between 0.01 & 0.99. A long-range shot will have around a 3% chance of being scored, so the xG value is 0.03. A one-on-one will generally be between 0.35 and 0.60.
- Adding these values up for every attempt on goal in a game gives you an xG total for a team.
Neal Maupay, starting up front in place of the injury-plagued Dominic Calvert-Lewin who is expected to return within the fortnight, was particularly wasteful, extending his barren record to one goal in 30 appearances for Everton.
“One of our analysts said our xG, which I’m not that big a believer in but it’s still a reference point, was around three, which is high in the Premier League," said Dyche.
“Inevitably, it’s only a measure but we’ve got to look at where we were and where we are now – and that, I thought, was a big shift.
“Some of the breakaways, some of the moments, some of the quality of chances were excellent.
"Now we’ve got to find those moments to go and score goals. But there’s a real strong sign there, a strong sign of a good outfit that is creating lots of chances and a lot of good things, so we’ve got to maintain the belief in that."
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