Football betting tips: FA Cup
3pts Arsenal to win at 3/4 (Betway)
1pt Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 13/5 (bet365)
1.5pt Lisandro Martinez 1+ total shots at 6/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Martinez 1+ shots on target at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Martinez 25/1 anytime (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
BuildABet @ 12/1
- Arsenal to win
- Both teams to score
- Martinez 1+ shots on target
"We kicked a lot of balls over the bar. It’s tricky. This ball flies a lot. It’s just very different to the Premier League ball."
For those of us who cringed our way through All or Nothing: Arsenal, Mikel Arteta's latest comments are no surprise.
The suggestion of this apparent Pep Guardiola disciple that the Carabao Cup match ball impacted Arsenal’s 2-0 defeat by Newcastle was more akin to something from the Jose Mourinho deflection playbook.
It worked too, with analysis aplenty on Puma (Carabao) vs Nike (Premier League) vs Adidas (Champions League), and the Gunners' comparative shot on target percentage with each this season; 53%, 52% and 58% to save you Googling.
"It's just different, very different to the Premier League ball" ⚽
— Sky Sports (@SkySports) January 8, 2025
Mikel Arteta suggested the Carabao Cup ball was a contributing factor in their loss to Newcastle, and rued Arsenal's wastefulness in front of goal... 👀 pic.twitter.com/HTM9rPTI1R
Arteta could, of course, be genuine in his assessment with it entirely possible that he is in fact just a bit strange; something the Amazon Prime documentary makes abundantly clear.
Beyond debate is the fact that result, combined with the Gunners' faltering title challenge, has increased the pressure to deliver his second major trophy.
Luckily for Arsenal, they have had four clear days to dust down, regain focus, and practice with a Mitre.
What are the best bets?
For both Arteta and Ruben Amorim this competition now represents the best opportunity to win silverware this season, both practically (Arsenal are out to 8/1 for the Carabao Cup) and historically.
No-one has the FA Cup more times than Arsenal, whose 14th victory came against Chelsea at an empty Wembley in 2020.
The only other club in double figures are Manchester United, the current holders thanks to a shock win over Manchester City in May, which took them to 13.
United arrive at the Emirates revitalised following an encouraging showing to draw at Liverpool on Sunday, a performance Amorim was more angry than proud of given the abject nature of previous displays since his arrival.
"I get more mad because of the other games...we need to fight REALLY bad to get out of this situation"
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) January 5, 2025
Ruben Amorim says that today's result has made him 'really mad' with Man United's previous results across the Premier League 😯 pic.twitter.com/MNIvEAlVWo
As is often the case with United, there has been an overreaction to one result.
This fixture took place little over a month ago in the league, with ARSENAL a general 4/9 TO WIN.
Given the Gunners are W6 D2 L1 since and United are W2 D1 L6, the drift to 3/4 makes no sense, and should be backed accordingly.
The response to Arsenal's most recent match has been a touch hysterical too, with them unlikely to pass up the opportunities they did so against Newcastle (xG: ARS 3.22-1.22 NEW) in successive home games.
Taking ARSENAL TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is also advised at 13/5 as the double comes out as excellent value.
Arteta's side haven't been quite so secure lately, with their sole clean sheet in past six games coming against relegation-battling Ipswich; their only win of their most recent four that didn't see this bet land.
New man Martinez
Having advised against overreacting to one match I'm at pains to point out that there is more to this LISANDRO MARTINEZ angle than him simply scoring at Anfield, although that is what triggered my looking a little more deeply into whether we should have seen that coming.
Lisandro Martínez unleashes a thunderbolt strike beyond Alisson! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/z3vmqkbIol
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) January 5, 2025
He is 25/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME on Sunday, unsurprising given he ended a two-year drought by belting home against Liverpool.
At such a big price he is worth taking to small stakes as his goal was no fluke thanks to a newfound willingness to shoot.
Under Amorim, Martinez has had nine attempts on goal in nine matches, only failing to have 1+ TOTAL SHOTS - best price of 6/4 - in the two matches he was substituted before the 65th minute in.
- CLICK HERE to back Martinez to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Martinez 1+ total shots with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Martinez 1+ shots on target with Sky Bet
Playing on the left of a back three has pushed him into advanced positions like the one he scored from last weekend and United having more central defenders in the team has allowed him to get more space at set-pieces too.
The majority of Martinez's attempts are coming from close-range at corners. With just over a third of his shots hitting the target, taking the 8/1 about 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET also feels worthwhile.
Team news and predicted line-ups
To follow
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (9/1/25)
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