Alex Keble's Premier League match-ups: Battles of the midfield
- Alex Keble (@alexkeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game
Outgunned with no Rodri?
- Arsenal vs Man City
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 16:30
- Home 19/20 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/8
A central midfield partnership of Matheus Nunes and Matteo Kovacic is the kind of thing you’d expect to see at a club chasing down a top-four finish.
It does not look like a Pep Guardiola midfield, and in the 2-1 defeat to Wolves it was pretty obviously too slow, too porous, and too flat to function against a deep block.
Arsenal is a completely different challenge of course, but at The Emirates Mikel Arteta will expect to dominate the midfield battle in a way he has never previously managed.
Declan Rice is a brilliant ball-carrier and he can drive the hosts forward, pushing beyond Nunes and Kovacic, neither of whom are good enough at pressing to take control of this contest.
If that wasn’t worrying enough for Man City, Martin Odegaard is in exceptional form and it is unlikely the visitors can stop him getting on the ball.
His interactions with Bukayo Saka will be around Nathan Ake, where Jeremy Doku will probably fail to track back often enough.
Throw in the fact that Man City’s injuries mean they have very few attacking options on the bench, and it looks as though Arsenal should be considered clear favourites.
Man City have lost five of 15 Premier League games in which Rodri has been absent, and just five of the last 67 in which he has featured.
The reason for that isn’t all about his defensive work stopping counters: he tops the City charts this season for shot-creating actions (33) and passes into the final third (72), and in Kevin De Bruyne’s absence is a vital attacking component.
In other words, Man City are weaker in all three thirds without Rodri.
Arsenal couldn’t have asked for a better chance of ending the sequence of 11 straight Premier League defeats against them.
Wild, end to end, basketball match
- Brighton vs Liverpool
- Sky Sports: Sunday, 14:00
- Home 19/20 | Draw 3/1 | Away 23/20
Aston Villa copied West Ham’s model for beating Brighton, refusing to press the centre-backs and be drawn into the kind of game that Roberto De Zerbi wants to play.
Unai Emery slowed Brighton down, surrounded their central midfielders in a midblock to stop De Zerbi’s sharp interchanges in the central column, and went long at goal kicks to unsettle them.
That’s all well and good – but Liverpool won’t do any of it.
Jurgen Klopp is not going to show the same humility when Brighton have possession, which should allow the hosts to manoeuvre around the press and expose the big holes at the base of Liverpool’s midfield, where Alexis Mac-Allister is struggling alone.
It should be similar to the chaos of Liverpool’s game at Spurs prior to the first red card.
Brighton are just as vulnerable if we get a basketball match.
They were torn apart by Aston Villa in the transitions and have been very open through midfield in many matches, struggling to adapt without Moises Caicedo in the team.
Consequently, Liverpool should be able to counter at speed, with Dominik Szoboszlai helping release the three forwards behind Brighton’s high line.
This wild end-to-end battle of counters and counter-counters will play out most obviously on the wing that involves Tariq Lamptey and Kauro Mitoma, with De Zerbi confirming that Pervis Estupinan is unlikely to play for "one month, more or less", due to a muscular injury.
For Liverpool on the right, it will be Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Mohamed Salah.
At one end, Brighton will consistently look to play long passes out to the touchline-hugging Mitoma to drive into the spaces that Alexander-Arnold leaves open – although even if the Liverpool right-back is in position, he will surely be skinned more often than not.
At the other, Lamptey will likely struggle without support from Mitoma and should be horribly outnumbered by Salah’s driving runs and the infield support of Alexander-Arnold. As in the 3-0 win over Villa, look out for Alexander-Arnold pumping long passes over the top of Brighton’s high line towards Salah.
This one should be a lot of fun.
'All down to Fernandes'
- Man Utd vs Brentford
- Saturday, 15:00
- Home 4/6 | Draw 3/1 | Away 15/4
The visit of Brentford is a deceptively tricky game for Manchester United, who have had statistically their worst ever start to a Premier League season.
Thomas Frank’s team are without a win in five in all competitions – and yet they have the kind of tactical strategy that this passive, creatively-lacking United team will struggle against.
Brentford switched to a back five for the 1-0 defeat to Arsenal and looked considerably more secure than they have done in other games, which fits a pattern: they are stronger when allowed to sit deep and launch long-ball counter-attacks, but rarely enact this strategy unless playing big clubs.
They will undoubtedly drop back at Old Trafford, potentially frustrating Erik ten Hag’s side in a hunched 5-3-2.
One of Ten Hag’s many problems is that his attacking players are quick and direct, lacking the guile to break down a low block.
Marcus Rashford and Rasmus Hojlund are highly unlikely to get space in the final third, plus the hosts won’t be able to go around the Brentford shell very easily, not with Sofyan Amrabat checking inside from left-back.
As usual, it all comes down to Bruno Fernandes, by far United’s most creative player. He has made 21 key passes this season, 250% more than the club’s second-best player Rashford, and has attempted 46 crosses, 350% more than the second-best Diogo Dalot.
The main issue with having one orchestrator is that managers like Frank will simply double up on him and man-mark Fernandes out of the game.
Assuming Brentford frustrate United by camping on the edge of their own box, they can go on to win by launching long balls up to Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa – who will target Victor Lindelof.
With Amrabat playing out of position and on Lindelof’s side, the Brentford forwards should get joy by leaning over to this wing.
They’ll certainly win set-pieces, from which Man Utd have already conceded three times this season and rank joint-seventh with Everton for set-piece shots against (28).
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