Cricket betting tips: Indian Premier League outright preview and best bets
Richard Mann provides his outright betting preview for IPL2024, with bets ranging from 18/1 to 5/1 in his staking plan.
Cricket betting tips: Indian Premier League
3pts Chennai Super Kings to win the IPL at 5/1 (General)
1pt Chennai Super Kings/Mumbai Indians IPL final at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
2pts Delhi Capitals to finish bottom of the IPL table at 6/1 (General)
IPL cream can rise to the top
T20 franchise cricket has come a long way and while it was initially viewed as unpredictable in nature, that is no longer the case. In terms of outright betting, I think you can make a good case for saying that this is one of the most predictable formats to bet on in cricket.
I'm not necessarily talking about individual matches, but over the course of a tournament, the outcomes, at least in terms of who contends in the latter stages of franchise tournaments, have become more and more predictable.
Take the Big Bash for example. Just over a year ago, Brisbane Heat were beaten by Perth Scorchers in the final and then went one better 12 months on by beating perennial challengers Sydney Sixers in the final. Heat finished top of the league table in the regular season, ahead of the Sixers, with old foes the Scorchers back in third.
In IPL2023, CHENNAI SUPER KINGS won the competition for a fifth time when narrowly defeating Gujarat Titans in the final, that after the same two teams and had finished second and first in the league table. Titans were champions in 2022 having again topped the league table. Lucknow Super Giants finished third in the regular season in both 2022 and 2023.
IPL pedigree is so important, as is having match-winners ready to step up in big games, and that’s just what Ravindra Jadeja did in the final last year when hitting the final two balls of the match for six and four to seal a remarkable comeback victory.
CSK’s history is littered with performances like that and having recruited well at the latest auction before Christmas, the men in yellow rate good value to land their third IPL title in just four years.
This squad looks incredibly strong from top to bottom, and in releasing Ben Stokes, who only played twice all last term, CSK have been able to bring in Rachin Ravindra and Daryl Mitchell, while Shardul Thakur is another terrific, multi-faceted cricketer who also appeals as an excellent pick-up.
One can certainly see the appeal with the Kiwi pair. Mitchell made two hundreds at the Cricket World Cup in India, averaging 69 in ten games, while Ravindra’s elevation to the top of the order saw him crack three centuries and finish just shy of 600 tournament runs.
While injury to fellow Kiwi and opening batsman Devon Conway is a blow, it opens up another overseas slot which Ravindra appears in pole position to fill. When you throw his very handy left-arm spin into the mix, there’s lots to like and his potential opening partnership with Ruturaj Gaikwad promises plenty.
Dhoni's boys have all bases covered
After that, there are a plethora of options, with veteran Ajinkya Rahane surely a frontrunner for the number three spot having finished with an impressive strike-rate of 172.48 last term, along with Mitchell and the highly-rated Sameer Rizvi. Shivam Dube scored 418 runs, while there’s Moeen Ali and Jadeja to fit in the middle order, too.
That’s certainly a very strong batting unit and expect captain MS Dhoni to keep things fairly settled as soon as he makes his mind up on what formula he wants. Dhoni remains the grand master and though offering less with the bat nowadays, his captaincy and wicket-keeping both remain top class.
Much of CSK’s success has been built around a formidable record at home where spin generally dominates, so having the likes of Jadeja, Moeen, Maheesh Theekshana and Mitchell Santner in their ranks ensures they are regularly picking up wins which in turn means they are always in the mix for one of those priceless top two league table positions which guarantees two bites of the cherry to get into the final.
With Thakur, Deepak Chahar and Matheesha Pathirana ensuring the pace stocks are strong, I can’t see many holes here. In fact, I reckon this might be an even better CSK squad than last year and I find it very hard not to see them contending at the latter stages of the competition. From there, history tells us there is no better team to finish the job than CSK.
The 5/1 that is currently readily available looks very fair, and I expect CSK will trade a good deal shorter in just a few week's time when things settle down, so getting involved now must be the play.
Expect another solid showing from 2022 champions, Titans, but losing captain Hardik Pandya to Mumbai Indians is a potential hammer blow, as is not having the services of strike bowler Mohammed Shami for the entirety of the season.
Much will depend on the form of Shubman Gill, but he scored 890 runs last year and that still wasn’t enough to secure back-to-back titles for his team. A repeat performance would be some feat, and Titans might just come up short again.
Mumbai can mount bold title bid
The biggest challenge to CSK is expected to come from Mumbai Indians who recovered from a poor start to the campaign to reach last year’s Qualifier.
It was a huge step forward for Mumbai, one of the giants of the competition, but very much in a rebuilding phase having finished bottom of the league table in 2022.
New talent has been blooded and last year was most encouraging, with the exceptional Suryakumar Yadav leading an exciting batting group also featuring bright talents Tilak Varma and Nehal Wadhera who slot in alongside Rohit Sharma and Tim David. Add Pandya to the mix this year, and the batting looks fearsome.
Another huge boost is the return to full fitness of Jasprit Bumrah who missed all of last season, and there’s no argument here with the thinking that the Indian spearhead is the best fast bowler in the world right now, across all formats. He will feel like a new signing to Mumbai, and a very good one at that.
Bumrah aside, the bowling is probably Mumbai’s weaker suit, but big runs are the norm at the Wankhede Stadium anyway, and with Bumrah back and firing in the recent Test series against England, one would think he will do enough to limit the damage with the ball, before letting the batting do the rest.
Following solid support in the last week or so, I can see why Mumbai are now 7/2 favourites to win the competition, though it is worth remembering that they haven’t performed particularly well in the regular season for a couple of years now.
CSK look the more solid option to me, particularly at bigger price, but I do like the look of 14/1 about a CHENNAI SUPER KINGS/MUMBAI INDIANS final. Remarkably, that has been the final in four of the 16 IPL seasons so far and given the strength of both squads and their rich IPL pedigree, it’s worth betting we will see number five come the end of the May.
I wouldn’t rule out another deep run from Lucknow who have a really settled squad and a powerful middle order when Nicholas Pooran and Marcus Stoinis get going. News that talisman opener KL Rahul is fit again is another big boost.
Of those away from the top of the market, Lucknow look much the best to me and the 9/1 of offer with Sky Bet and Betway could shorten a fair bit if they put up another strong showing in the regular season.
Capitals set for another tough campaign
One franchise I don’t have high hopes for is DELHI CAPITALS, and I can’t resist a few quid on them finishing bottom at 6/1.
Things have got progressively worse for Delhi since they were beaten in the final in 2020, reaching the playoffs the following year before managing fifth in the league table in 2022, and only ninth of 10 last year.
All that makes one wonder whether head coach Ricky Ponting has taken this team as far as he can. The Australian had done a wonderful job in picking the franchise off the canvas and making them into a formidable outfit, but they have gone backwards more recently, and I really fear for them this term.
As ever, Ponting has banked on his Australian overseas stars doing the job, but Mitchell Marsh only averaged 14.22 last season, and though David Warner struck 516 runs, his strike-rate of 131.63 didn’t put the fear of God into opposition attacks.
Given the promise he displayed last year, and his subsequent golden run for England, I was surprised that Ponting opted to let Phil Salt go, and confirmation that Harry Brook has pulled out of the competition due to a family bereavement isn't good news for Delhi.
Salt has since been snapped up by Kolkata Knight Riders, but in comes in the exciting but largely unproven Jake Fraser-McGurk. He looks a terrific prospect but as Brook found out when signed for big bucks by Sunrisers Hyderabad last season, this is a completely different ball game.
Though he might not have been an automatic pick, paceman Lungi Ngidi joins the absent list because of injury, meaning vital cover for spearhead Anrich Nortje is now missing. Nortje is himself currently working back from a lengthy injury layoff.
Delhi will be pinning their hopes on the returning Rishabh Pant, and it will be fantastic to see him back on the field again having missed so much cricket following a car accident that very nearly cost him his life. Still, it’s asking an awful lot of Pant to hit the ground running, and I’m sceptical.
For my money, Delhi have too many questions to answer and face too many potential blocks in the road. Were one of Nortje or Marsh – who are both injury prone – to break down again, this squad would suddenly look threadbare, and I have my doubts as to just how much petrol Warner has left in the tank.
There is a chance Ponting will refuse to accept mediocrity and will drag Delhi out of the mire should they again struggle, but as good a coach as he appears to be, that wasn’t enough last year, and there is plenty that could go wrong this time around.
Given how badly the batting struggled last term – Warner was the only man to score more than 300 runs in the season – the loss of Brook could prove catastrophic, and as such, 6/1 for DELHI CAPITALS TO FINISH BOTTOM looks very attractive.
Preview published at 1915 GMT on 17/03/24
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