Heinrich Klaasen can lead South Africa to Champions Trophy glory

Cricket betting tips: ICC Champions Trophy preview and best bets

By Paul Krishnamurty

Cricket

Fri February 21, 2025 · 10M ago

Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty is back with his best bets and key advice for the ICC Champions Trophy which starts on Wednesday.

Cricket betting tips: ICC Champions Trophy

4pts South Africa to win the Champions Trophy at 9.6 (Betfair Exchange)

4pts Afghanistan to qualify from Group B at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

2pts Afghanistan to reach the final at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The second biggest tournament in 50-over cricket, surpassed only by the World Cup, begins on Wednesday, hosted by Pakistan and the U.A.E. This will be the ninth ICC Champions Trophy but the first for eight years, after the Covid-19 pandemic forced its cancellation in 2021. Pakistan are the defending champions.

Basic rules for this 50 over format

Much to my frustration, the 50-over format has been somewhat squeezed out by Tests and T20 so, before getting to the teams, it is worth reminding ourselves of the important dynamics to consider when betting on ODIs. Prior to the 2023 World Cup, I wrote this preview for Sporting Life, which explains why the formbook tends to hold up extremely well in this format, and provides examples of how best to trade the innings runs markets.

India clearly the team to beat

Given that tendency towards the favourites, one might be tempted to back India at a best-priced 7/4. They are clearly the best side, boasting an abundance of riches with bat and ball. To demonstrate that, they just thrashed England 3-0, winning each match by a comprehensive margin.

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Both openers, Shubman Gill and Rohit Sharma, registered tons, while the rest of the top order, Virat Kohli and Shreyas Iyer, both showed good form with fifties. They look set to record some very big totals, perhaps in excess of 350, which will prove insurmountable to all but the very best opponents, playing at their best.

Moreover, they have yet again been the beneficiaries of a controversial ICC ruling. Because India refuse to travel to Pakistan, they get to play all their matches in Dubai. They can therefore prepare a team and tactics around one ground, whereas everyone else must adapt to different venues and conditions. That their squad contains five frontline spinners offers an obvious clue about what will be required at Dubai.

Three reasons to swerve short India odds

Betting, however, is rarely so straightforward and, without questionings their claims for this title, there are good reasons to swerve such short odds. First, they are without their talisman paceman Jasprit Bumrah. Described accurately by Sporting Life’s Richard Mann as arguably the best white ball bowler of all time, Bumrah was critical to India winning last year’s T20 World Cup, and was better than ever in their winter test series against Australia. Yes, they have back-up but Bumrah is irreplaceable.

Secondly, consider the venue in question. Evening dew is a huge factor at Dubai - perhaps more than any ground in the world. In one franchise series after another, we have seen a huge bias to chasing teams, batting in much easier conditions as spinners struggle to get grip on the wet surface. India could easily come unstuck if losing a toss.

Thirdly, it will take very little for these outright odds to drift. A bad hour in a key group match, or the semi. Remember what happened in that 2023 World Cup. They indeed proved imperious for most of the tournament, and offered a great trading opportunity if backing at 3.25 pre-tournament as they entered the final around 1.4. But they then lost a critical toss in the final and were back to 3.25 at the halfway point, before losing to Australia.

No Bumrah, no party?

Nevertheless, India’s presence in Group A is a strong deterrent to backing any of their opponents. The opening match of the tournament between Pakistan and New Zealand may well ultimately prove decisive for who progresses to the semis, alongside India. And while Bangladesh are rightly the tournament outsiders, they are always capable of producing an upset somewhere, especially if there is a toss bias.

For what it’s worth, I’m struggling to separate Pakistan and New Zealand. The former are probably superior on paper and have home advantage, but are perennial underachievers. Their leading batsman Babar Azam has also been below his best of late, and emerging superstar Saim Ayub is absent through injury. In contrast, no team has consistently excelled beyond expectations than the Black Caps.

Two cracking bets in Group B

For an outright bet, therefore, I’m focusing on Group B. Here, I think the odds are wildly wrong. Whilst one can understand world champions Australia starting as favourites, this isn’t the same side. Their squad, especially the bowling, has been decimated. Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Marcus Stoinis and Mitch Marsh are all missing.

Their replacements are decent players, and in Steve Smith, Travis Head and Glenn Maxwell, the Aussies still possess match-winning batsmen, but I think they will struggle to contain scoring with the ball. That is generally ruinous in the sub-continent and Dubai, and as I write they have just been hammered for a second straight match by Sri Lanka (who failed to qualify for this).

England, too, are easy to oppose. They were atrocious when defending the World Cup in 2023, and in the recent thrashing by India. They simply don’t have the batsmen to cope with spin - a pre-requisite in this part of the world. I don’t see their bowlers containing scoring either.

Back South Africa to finally deliver

That leaves the two group outsiders, both of whom rate outstanding value. In South Africa’s case, one is always aware of their persistent failure to deliver in big events, even when seemingly ideally placed. Their loss from what appeared an unassailable position in the T20 World Cup final remains fresh in the memory, and they were a bag of nerves in the 2023 World Cup semi.

Marco Jansen towers above his South Africa teammates

Marco Jansen is the man of the moment

However such grim runs cannot last forever. This is a huge period for South African cricket, and they possess an abundance of talent across all formats. They have breezed into the World Test Championship final, despite losing an entire set of bowlers to injury. Their batting is perfectly balanced, from explosive opener Ryan Rickelton to the reliable, more conventional run-getter Rassie van der Dussen.

In Heinrich Klaasen, they boast arguably the best player of spin in the world and in Tristan Stubbs, one of the best emerging white ball finishers. Marco Jansen is bowling better than ever, while Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi provide a competent spin team. I don’t see a weakness, besides historic memories, which shouldn’t deter a bet.

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Afghans remain hugely under-rated

As for Afghanistan, we have a team on the up, gaining confidence with each big event, set to enjoy ideal conditions. In the 2023 World Cup, they improved as the tournament progressed, handing out comfortable beatings to England, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Reaching the semis of the 2024 T20 World Cup semis represented a new pinnacle for Afghan cricket.

I’m convinced this longer format is ideal, as their weakness has been not scoring quickly enough with the bat. With the ball, there is arguably no better attack in the competition. Faz Farooqi is outstanding with the new ball, while Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad are ultra-reliable spinners. They have several all-rounders who can take pace off the ball.

Whether they progress to the semis from this group or not, I’m convinced the bookies have got Afghanistan badly wrong. They are huge value to qualify, to reach the final and will be in all their matches, especially against Australia and England, for whom the exact opposite value argument applies. Back these two sides and don’t worry about India until it will probably become necessary to cover, in the latter stages.