Cricket betting tips: England v India third Test preview for Headingley
A wounded England take on India in the third Test at Headingley on Wednesday – Richard Mann has three selections in his betting preview.
Cricket tips: England v India third Test, August 25-29
3pts India to beat England at 11/8 (William Hill)
1pt Rohit Sharma to be Man of the Match at 12/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jos Buttler to make a first-innings fifty at 7/2 (Betway)
First Test, Trent Bridge: Joe Root and James Anderson keep India at bay before the tourists take early control of their second innings run chase, only for rain to save England on day five with a frustrated Rohit Sharma well set and itching to finish the job. 0-0.
Second Test, Lord’s: England win a crucial toss and opt to bowl in favourable conditions, but once again meet classy resistance from India’s openers who dominate day one before the ageless Anderson hits back with his seventh five-wicket haul at Lord’s. Another sparking century from Root promises to keep India at arms-length until his batting colleagues collapse in the face of some brilliant Indian fast bowling on a dramatic final day. 1-0 India.
Third Test, Headingley: Is there any way back for an injury-ravaged England so low on confidence?
The bookmakers aren’t so sure, INDIA now general favourites for Headingley having started as second favourites for the first two matches, though a top price of 11/8 hardly demonstrates a seismic shift in the betting and the tourists are once again too good to ignore.
Put simply, India are a much stronger side, one boasting a pack of pace bowlers who all offer their unique challenges. With the number one spinner in the world, Ravi Ashwin, likely to make his entrance either in Leeds or at The Oval a week later, India’s bowling trumps this England attack from every angle – the incomparable Anderson apart – with injuries to Stuart Broad, Jofra Archer Olly Stone and now Mark Wood certainly worth taking into account when the jury casts its verdict at the end of the series.
The batting is already looking like a mismatch, too, with Rohit and KL Rahul excelling at the top of the order and the bowlers chipping in with runs lower down – the lack of significant contributions from Ajinkya Rahane and Virat Kohli easily papered over. For England, not even 386 runs in two Tests from the admirable Root has been enough to keep them in business, so badly has the rest of the batting line-up performed.
You can usually get a sense of where a side is at by selection, and for all head coach Chris Silverwood has portrayed calmness and insisted he would rather give his players one too many chances to prove themselves than one too few, England’s top three in Leeds is set for its third reshuffle in as many matches. It all screams of panic stations and at present, it isn’t easy to make a clear judgement of the players, or even the type of cricketers, Silverwood wants in his batting group and, indeed, who he is backing to make a long-term impact in the Test side.
Malan returns to bolster fragile England
The recall of Dawid Malan is long overdue and something I have been calling for since the end of the winter tours. A fine player of pace bowling, Malan should be locked in for the upcoming Ashes series Down Under, and I think it’s fair to argue that his outstanding international performances in white-ball cricket since his first crack at Test cricket illustrate that he is a much-improved batsman. A Test century in Perth in 2017 confirms Malan has always been a fine player, but he is a better one now and it is important Silverwood and Root make him feel valued in the current set-up. As we know only too well, finding batsmen who can make hundreds in Ashes series’ – particularly away from home – is no easy task and England need Malan to add some substance and quality to that top order.
He will have his work cut out returning against an Indian attack as good as this one – particularly with many of them especially dangerous against left handers – but Malan is a class above the man he will replace on Wednesday, Dom Sibley, and England should have no issues with going back to a man who will very soon celebrate his 34th birthday. The aforementioned Anderson is proof of that.
A lack of recent red-ball cricket for Malan in recent weeks is a negative for him and England, but by the time this series moves to the faster, bouncier surfaces on offer at The Oval and Old Trafford, and with a run under his belt, I’ll want the Yorkshire number three in my staking plan. Given the red-hot form of Root, I suspect I’ll need to stay away from the top England batsman market to do so, but following a watching brief in Leeds, I expect to make my move with Malan. Here’s hoping I’m not a week too late.
As for the rest of the home batting line-up, only Root can hold his head up high with Jonny Bairstow comfortably appearing best of the rest.
It's a lack of runs from the hosts that points to another India win in Leeds, their case strengthened further by a promising weather forecast which invariably means conditions are much better for batting in Leeds. As the old saying goes: look up, not down, at Headingley. If the sun shines, it’s hard to see England having the ammunition to roll out India’s resilient batting unit cheaply enough to keep their own misfiring batting outfit in the game.
Rampant India have sorry England covered
Furthermore, the promise of some good weather will surely see Ashwin in the mix for a recall, though don't forget that India’s awesome pace foursome did the damage on a flat pitch at Lord’s last week when not enjoying the best of conditions. I dare say Leeds – sun or no sun – won’t hold too many fears for Jasprit Bumrah and co.
All in all, I’m struggling to make any sort of case for the home team who are set to field another much-changed starting XI from Lord's and will also be shorn of Mark Wood’s pace due to a shoulder injury.
As well as Root is batting at present, and as good as Anderson is, this talismanic pair can’t keep carrying the side, and in truth, it’s hard to see what more they can do. And even now, despite their heroics, it hasn’t been enough to get England’s noses in front, or even keep them on parity. Should either or both have quiet matches in Leeds, England could be in for a mauling against a keyed-up India side who appear to be relishing the challenge of trying to master these conditions, just as they did in Australia last winter.
With the prospect of Kohli coming to the party sooner rather than later, too, 11/8 for another away win has to warrant considerable investment.
Rohit and Buttler appeal for side wagers
The submarkets less so, but I’m not about to jump ship from my Man of the Match project on ROHIT SHARMA, having watched him cruise to 83 at Lord’s before being undone by a beauty from Anderson. The fact his opening partner, Rahul, had only laboured to 33 at the time, before eventually claiming Man of the Match honours with his 129, highlights that Rohit backers weren’t far away from a winning return. I’m happy to go in again at 12/1 in the hope for some quick compensation.
Finally, I’m going to take a hunch on the apparently struggling JOS BUTTLER to make a first innings half-century.
Regular readers of these pages will know that Buttler is a firm favourite of mine, in this format of the game as much as any other, and I don’t think he’s far away from showing some form. In fact, returns of 0, 17, 23 and 25 in the series so far don’t paint the picture of a man desperately out of touch; perhaps just a little bit off the pace following no red-ball cricket since taking on this very same opposition in Chennai back in early February.
He’s had a few niggles to content with since, too, but I thought he battled hard in the second innings at Lord’s when happy to play a different role to the one he is used to in trying to save the Test for his side. He wasn’t that far away from succeeding, either, and I sense a real steel in his resolve to do well this summer in such a big series.
Were Root not making hundreds for fun, I might have taken a stab on Buttler in the top England batsman market with double-figure odds certainly tempting, but the Root Factor is too hard to ignore at present. Instead, I’ll advise a small bet at 7/2 (Betway) for Buttler to make a fifty in the first innings.
That aside, expect more of the same from India in Leeds as they eye up their wounded prey and circle for the kill. Once again, it might be left to Root and Anderson to keep their blood-thirsty visitors at bay – but just how much longer they can resist remains to be seen.
Published at 1250 BST on 23/08/21
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