10/1 pre-tournament selections South Africa take on Australia in the Cricket World Cup semi-finals on Thursday morning – read Richard Mann's preview here.
Cricket betting tips: Australia v South Africa
1pt Marco Jansen Man of the Match at 18/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Aiden Markram top match batsman at 13/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Heinrich Klaasen top match batsman at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
The famous Eden Gardens stadium stages the second Cricket World Cup semi-final when South Africa and Australia renew hostilities on Thursday, 8.30am, UK time.
Renewing hostilities is reference to the wonderful five-match ODI series these two teams played out in September as warm up for the World Cup, with South Africa coming from 2-0 behind to eventually win 3-2. Having then trounced Australia by 134 runs in the group stage, the Proteas have now won the last four meetings between the sides.
It’s somewhat surprising, then, that South Africa are currently on the drift and available to back at 6/5 to win the match. The feeling is that Australia are peaking at the right time, while it seems punters aren’t willing to forgive South Africa for their chequered past in knockout matches.
South Africa the pick on recent form
The last point is fair, but I’m not sure I’m completely buying that Australia are a much stronger team now than when South Africa bullied them earlier in the tournament, or at the end of that aforementioned series.
I’d argue that Australia have had lots go their way at this tournament. Without Glenn Maxwell’s heroics, or with some competent catching from their opponents, they would’ve lost to Afghanistan who traded at 1.01 in-running on the exchanges. New Zealand ought to have chased down 400 against them, Jimmy Neesham somehow failing to hit a wayward full toss in Mitchell Starc's final over for a boundary that would’ve all but sealed victory, while Sri Lanka and England both threw away positions of dominance before losing to Pat Cummins' side.
South Africa weren’t bombproof in the group stages, either, and losing to the Netherlands was a particular low point. But they made much lighter work of the likes of England, New Zealand, and Afghanistan. Furthermore, when they were good, they were frighteningly good, producing a level of cricket that only India appear capable of matching and surpassing.
If South Africa produce their best game on Thursday, they’ll win.
Much of the pre-match talk will focus on concerns about South Africa’s ability to chase down a score in a high-pressure match, but they won a thriller against Pakistan in a similar scenario earlier in the competition and kept their cool to chase down 245 against Afghanistan's strong bowling attack only last week. As I’ve already stated, it was a much better overall run chase than Australia produced against the same opposition.
Make no mistake, I’d prefer South Africa to bat first – given they were the only outright selection in the pre-tournament preview at 10/1 – but that’s also because batting first has generally proved a big advantage throughout the tournament, for all teams. I can’t do anything about that now, but am not inclined advise a cover bet on Australia for a match I still favour South Africa to win.
Jansen primed to attack Australia top order
Another factor in South Africa's favour is the match-up between Marco Jansen and Australia's openers David Warner and Travis Head – both left handers. Warner is enjoying a fine tournament, amassing 499 runs already, including two centuries, while Head struck a magnificent comeback hundred against New Zealand. But both might meet their match in Jansen.
The giant left-arm paceman has come of age at this World Cup, claiming 17 wickets in eight matches and proving especially potent with the new ball in the first powerplay. Jansen has taken 12 first powerplay wickets in all, and his penultimate outing reaffirmed his liking for left handers when he knocked over heavy-scoring Kiwi opening pair Devon Conway and Rachin Ravindra inside the first 10 overs.
Prior to that, Jansen picked up three wickets against Pakistan, two of which were left handers, and I just feel this match could be set up for Jansen to shape its course in the powerplay with a big opening spell. If South Africa can make early inroads, that Australia middle order hasn’t entirely convinced so far, barring the occasional bout of Maxwell brilliance, and the route to the final could well be decided here.
Given my preference for South Africa, backing MARCO JANSEN to be MAN OF THE MATCH at 18/1 looks the obvious way forward, especially when adding his excellent batting at number seven to the mix.
The outstanding tournament Adam Zampa has enjoyed so far – 22 wickets at an average of18.90 – and the relative ineffectiveness of Australia seamers who are all averaging over 30 with the ball, along with the fact Zampa is the only frontline spinner in the squad, means the wrist spinner jumps off the page at 3/1 for top Australia bowler.
Power pair stand out for Proteas
Eden Gardens has spun all through this tournament, so ought to suit, but South Africa took him down in their earlier meeting when he returned figures of 1-70, and they were even more brutal on him when he finished that aforementioned ODI series with an economy rate of 7.00. The Proteas clearly play him well, well enough to put me off betting him on Thursday.
South Africa’s highest two runscorers in that series were HEINRICH KLAASEN and AIDEN MARKRAM, two men who have both impressed at the World Cup so far, the former with a century and one fifty, the latter having registered a century and three half-centuries.
Markram in particular is an excellent player of spin who has looked very comfortable against Zampa, while Klaasen took him down in devastating fashion when blasting 174 from only 83 balls at Centurion Park in September.
With Starc struggling for form, and Josh Hazlewood looking the main threat with the new ball, I like the look of the South African middle-order duo at numbers four and five.
Markram was a 10/1 winner for these pages in the TOP MATCH BATSMAN market not so long ago, so I’m happy to row in with him again at 13/1, along with Klaasen (12/1) who is currently one of the most destructive white-ball batsmen in the world.
Preview published at 1235 GMT on 15/11/23
Related links
- Click here for Sky Bet's World Cup odds
- Paul Krishnamurty's cricket betting masterclass
- Latest cricket Only Bettor podcast
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