Richard Mann previews the second Ashes Test which begins in Adelaide on Thursday morning – he has five bets in his staking plan.
Cricket tips: The Ashes second Test
2pts Jos Buttler to make a first-innings fifty at 100/30 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Jos Buttler top England batsman at 10/1 (bet365)
2pts Marnus Labuschagne top Australia batsman at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Marnus Labuschagne to make a first-innings century at 9/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Mitchell Starc top Australia bowler at 3/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
As the old saying goes, ‘it’s the hope that kills you’. Well, that certainly felt like the case as England’s Ashes hopes were dealt a hammer blow at The Gabba, Australia running out convincing nine-wicket victors in the first Test, leaving the tourists with much to ponder ahead of the second Test in Adelaide.
The frustration for England fans is that Brisbane showed that Australia are not unbeatable. England shot themselves in the foot throughout, most significantly when Joe Root handed the hosts an early advantage when opting to bat first on a green surface resembling Leeds in April, with overhead conditions also favourable to seam and swing bowling.
After England’s ill-prepared batting line-up stuttered to 147 all out, the bowling attack defied expectations by turning in a collectively skilful and wholehearted display that would have kept their side in the match, but for a glut of catches being spilled in a woeful fielding effort.
Even then, a 162-run partnership between captain Joe Root and Dawid Malan in England’s second innings briefly raised hopes of an unlikely victory, before an all-too-familiar batting collapse allowed Australia to wrap up the match on the fourth day.
It was a Test of missed opportunities for England and while Australia looked strong in certain areas – Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne with the bat; Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood with the ball – there were other times when their weaknesses were on show, particularly when England’s seamers were able to build pressure for long periods or when Mitchell Starc and Nathan Lyon struggled to find the right line and length. It paints a bleak picture for England that they rarely looked like taking advantage.
Anderson pushing for second Test return
As is the case ahead of every Ashes series in Australia, much of the talk beforehand was centred around England’s recent inability to take 20 wickets in these conditions. While it’s still early days, I think there were enough positive signs in Brisbane to suggest England have the resources to bowl this Australian side out, especially if their catching can improve and Mark Wood is still standing by the time the fifth Test comes around.
Confirmation that James Anderson and Stuart Broad are ‘fully fit’ for the second Test and that they have been practicing hard with the pink ball ahead of the day/night affair is a timely boost for Root’s side. Conversely, news that Hazlewood won’t be playing in Adelaide due to a minor side strain that he picked up in the first Test, and that he is also a doubt for the Boxing Day showpiece at the MCG, will be a significant test for Australia’s bench strength, something I have had my doubts about since the retirements of Peter Siddle and James Pattinson.
With Hazlewood missing, and possibly David Warner who is suffering from sore ribs having felt the wrath of a frustrated Ben Stokes last week, this feels like England’s chance to get back into the series. With their greatest ever bowler in Anderson back in the fold, and Australia having changes to make, England might not get a better opportunity, with the pink ball and a day/night Test one they would have had high expectations for when the Ashes itinerary was first released.
However, there is a real danger that England are being cute here, and putting all their eggs in the pink-ball basket might not be the way to go. It seems Anderson missed Brisbane as a precaution to ensure he was fully fit for the day/night Test, but the start of any series is so important, particularly an Ashes one Down Under, and England would be better served focussing on the present and not getting too far ahead of themselves. If Anderson was fully fit last week, he simply had to play.
Plainly, there is no guarantee that Anderson, and potentially Broad, will bowl the hosts to victory this week. In this fixture in 2017, Anderson and Broad toiled for 61 overs, claiming three wickets between them for 146 runs as Australia amassed 442-8 declared when batting first.
While there is an expectation that the pink ball swings around corners, that is just not the case for the most part, and when the floodlights aren’t on, the Adelaide sun bakes a generally flat batting pitch and the ball rarely moves sideways. In the middle session, when the lights first come on, the ball will move around for an hour or so, but banking on Anderson being armed with a new ball at that specific time is very optimistic. In the second innings in 2017, that did happen, and Anderson bowled beautifully to take 5-43, but England were so far behind in the game at that point that his efforts were in vain.
That’s not to say Anderson shouldn’t play in Adelaide. Of course he should. He remains England’s best bowler and his record in day/night Tests – 14 wickets at 19.28 – demands his selection. Even when conditions aren't in his favour, there is nobody better at playing the containing role as England look to take wickets by building pressure in the absence of swing or extreme pace. Expect him to replace Wood, who surely won't be asked to play back-to-back Tests this early in the series, with Woakes' superior batting potentially keeping him ahead of Broad. Adelaide does generally spin, so Jack Leach could retain his place despite his struggles at The Gabba.
While the selection debate around the make-up of England’s bowling attack is an interesting one, the real issue with this side is patently the batting. The fact Root is the only England batsman averaging over 40 (64.33) in 2021 illustrates just why England have struggled for consistent results, and that Malan is next best with an average of 38.80 since returning to the side in the summer begs the question as to why it took so long for England to recall him in the first place.
Buttler worth a spin in Hazlewood's absence
The numbers really do make for dismal reading, though I thought JOS BUTTLER looked in good touch in both innings when asked to perform repair jobs in circumstances that England really should be protecting him from if they want to get the best out of this dynamic, free-scoring batsman. In the first dig, Buttler came in at 60-5 on a raging green seamer, but played positively to top-score with 39. Second time around, he was tasked with facing the second new ball as he battled to 23.
Coming into this series on the back of a fruitful T20 World Cup where he looked back to his best, with his resolve to back his attacking instincts and play with the freedom that has served him so well in white-ball cricket, I’m hoping Buttler can enjoy a productive series, and a good batting surface in Adelaide should be to his liking, as will Hazlewood’s absence.
I wouldn’t fancy Buttler if he’s forced to bat against the new ball in that twilight period already discussed, but that is unlikely, and I’m happy to back him to make a first-innings fifty at 100/30 and to top-score for England at 10/1. The presence of the in-form Root of course makes the latter market a hard one to win, but he remains without a Test match hundred in Australia and given England’s struggles at the top of the order, he might well be facing more tough work against the new ball this week. Buttler could take advantage.
Elsewhere, I’m really keen to have MARNUS LABUSCHAGNE in my staking plan. Labuschagne has proven himself a run machine since returned to the Australia side in 2019 and he batted really well for his first-innings 74 at The Gabba. Labuschagne’s early exchanges with Ollie Robinson saw the former give a masterclass in how to construct a Test innings and but for Australia’s eagerness to take down Leach and make an early statement to England’s spinner, I’m sure he would have gone on to make a three-figure score.
What we know about Labuschagne is that when he gets in, he generally goes very big, and I’m keen to snap up the 9/2 for him to make a first-innings century. Despite the presence of Smith in the Australian line-up, Labuschagne has consistently outscored him since the 2019 Ashes and the 11/4 for him to top-score for Australia again is worth taking. I’ll be splitting my stakes accordingly, while just about resisting a third wager on Labuschagne in the Man of the Match market.
Streaky Starc to continue Adelaide love affair
Finally, MITCHELL STARC makes a rare appearance in the betting plan this week in the hope his happy knack of taking wickets, even when not necessarily bowling at his best, can continue in Adelaide.
Starc wouldn’t be everyone’s cup of tea, and he’s not mine, but his ability to mop up the tail with his express pace and pinpoint yorker has been proven time and time again, as has his effectiveness in Adelaide. Starc has taken 33 wickets at this ground in only six Tests, including a five-wicket haul in this fixture four years ago and 4-53 against India last year.
I also think Hazlewood’s absence improves Starc's chances of picking up plenty of wickets for two reasons. Not only is this market now missing Australia’s best new-ball bowler, but Hazlewood’s injury will mean that Australia captain, Cummins, knows he desperately needs Starc firing and full of confidence for the rest of the summer. With strong criticism from the likes of Shane Warne clearly knocking Starc, Cummins is sure to want to build him back up, so don’t be surprised if Starc is afforded an extended spell at England’s flaky lower order in a bid see him finish with a nice haul that he can ride on for the rest of the series.
Given we know how effective Starc can be in such circumstances, and that he clearly enjoys bowling with the pink ball, I think there is plenty in his favour, especially when considering that the aforementioned Lyon will again be asked to play a containing role in the first innings. Take the 3/1.
Published at 1400 GMT on 13/12/21
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