Chris Oliver previews Saturday's second edition of Oleksandr Usyk v Anthony Joshua, where he's strongly in favour of the Ukrainian.
Boxing betting tips: Usyk v Joshua II
2pts Oleksandr Usyk to win by stoppage 2/1 (Sporting Index)
Anthony Joshua is hoping history will repeat itself as he returns to Saudi Arabia for his highly-anticipated rematch with OLEKSANDR USYK on Saturday night.
Joshua's only previous fight in the country saw him avenge his first career loss to Andy Ruiz Jr in 2019 and he now bids to do the same here against the second man to beat him.
However, this revenge mission is a very different one. Having been outgunned when stopped by Ruiz, he was able to comfortably outbox an overweight version of the Mexican-American in the return, but Joshua was given a boxing lesson by Usyk last year and faces the prospect of the latter potentially being even better this time.
The stakes couldn't be higher, with Joshua's legacy on the line as he attempts to become a three-time champion while knowing another 'L' against his name would leave him with a long road back into title contention.
What did we learn in London?
With any rematch, the biggest clues are in the first encounter, and it was 11 months ago that they clashed in front of a sell-out crowd at the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. With three of the main four heavyweight belts in his possession and being the bigger man, Joshua naturally started as favourite at 2/5, but it wasn't all one-way traffic in the betting and the 7/4 about the unbeaten Usyk reflected his tremendous pedigree.
Usyk was quick out of the blocks and, having surprised many by grabbing the centre of the ring, he landed several straight left hands from the southpaw stance whilst proving an elusive target for the champion. With the challenger putting in a big first three rounds, Joshua then came into the fight and was able to find a home for a few of his big right hands, forcing Usyk to take a backward step for the first time.
There didn't appear to be too much between them on the scorecards at the halfway stage and it was all to play for going into the final third of the contest, but that is when Usyk really stamped his authority on the fight. Maintaining his high work-rate as Joshua tired, the Ukrainian was able to outwork the now sluggish home favourite in the championship rounds and even came close to stopping the shattered champion in the dying seconds. Usyk was deservedly awarded a unanimous decision by margins of five, four and three rounds respectively.
The betting roles are very much reversed in the return, with Usyk a best price of 4/7 and Joshua finding himself in very unfamiliar territory as the underdog at 7/4. The latter's odds have shortened a little in recent days as the patriotic punt has begun and that could well gather pace on the day of the fight.
It wasn't the result that proved the biggest surprise that night, it was the tactics that Joshua employed, as he appeared to try and outbox the master boxer. Usyk had already displayed sublime skills in a stellar amateur career that saw him win two Olympic gold medals before rapidly unifying all the belts at cruiserweight as a professional, so it was widely regarded that Joshua's best chance laid with him imposing his size and strength on the smaller man. However, a tactical affair played right into the hands of Usyk, who won the battle of the jabs despite his shorter reach.
🥊🏆 "This is my 12th consecutive world title fight. I’ve been in world title fights back to back 12 times. This is the third Olympic gold medallist I’m fighting. I’m fighting good fighters. But if the game doesn’t need me any more…"#UsykJoshua2 https://t.co/m8LzXAHVdj
— Sporting Life 🎯🔴🎾⛳️🥊🏏🏉 🏈 (@SportingLifeFC) August 18, 2022
Usyk stood his ground and stayed in range but, thanks to the kind of footwork and head movement you don't usually see in the heavyweight division, proved tough to hit cleanly for much of the fight. With Joshua rarely landing with his jab, he was then reluctant to throw the right hand on the back of that and became tentative, which perfectly suited his more skilful opponent.
In truth, Joshua had been in a transitional period in terms for his fighting style for some time, ever since his up-and-down thriller with another Ukrainian in Wladimir Klitschko. That transformation quickened up after he was stopped by Ruiz, as the Brit regained his belts with a fine display of stick-and-move tactics behind his jab in the rematch and it appeared he believed he could do the same with Usyk.
So, it's Joshua who needs to make all the changes here and he began by replacing long-term coach Robert McCracken with Robert Garcia. A former world champion at super featherweight, the Mexican-American trainer has worked with a plethora of top-level students and is generally associated with aggressive, come-forward fighters. That certainly suggests we can expect a more positive approach from Joshua, which is seemingly the only way he can regain his belts. It's clear he needs to land something meaningful early doors and try to stop Usyk from getting into his rhythm, because we have already seen what happens when the latter is in full flow, and he is very hard to beat when he does.
It was thanks to his aggressive approach that Joshua made his name in the professional ranks, as he bludgeoned his way to the top with his seek-and-destroy tactics. That mentality appears to be what he needs here, but the big question is can he recapture the 'old' AJ and effectively impose his size advantage on the new champion?
Things would get very interesting if Joshua were to land something big in the opening few rounds and, knowing he has to be more assertive, there will plenty who see value in the prices quoted about him gaining revenge via stoppage. If he is to win, it might well have to be inside the distance.
However, while Joshua's best chance lies with him being more aggressive, that could also be his downfall. He isn't built for stamina and, not for the first time, we saw him tire badly in the first fight. If Joshua increases his output here and Usyk is still standing at the halfway mark, the red light will be flashing on AJ's petrol tank from there on in.
By applying pressure with his superb feet and providing a constantly moving target while always being in range, Usyk forces you to work harder than you want to, and this is both physically and mentally draining for his opponents. He does 12 rounds extremely well and becomes more and more dangerous as the fights goes on, as he steps it up a gear just as his opponents are beginning to flag.
There is also the southpaw factor to consider, with Joshua's limited previous experience against 'lefties' proving a big issue in London last September, and there have to be concerns whether he learnt enough from those bruising 36 minutes to make the necessary adjustments.
The trouble in Usyk's homeland must be mentioned as we don't know how the war in Ukraine has affected him. There have been concerns that he may not be in the best shape mentally for this bout given what his countrymen are going through. However, the opposite could also apply, as he may be galvanised and spurred on even more in a bid to do his people proud and lift their spirits.
What's the best bet for Usyk v Joshua II?
There is no doubt Joshua has the power to make things very tough for Usyk, who can look uncomfortable when pushed back and not given the room to slide out of range with his fancy footwork, and the physically gifted Brit could certainly have some success, especially early on. That said, he did land big right hands on a few occasions last time and Usyk took them well. The Ukrainian has always displayed a very solid chin and, when caught, has a habit of riding the shots to take the sting out of them, so he is very hard to nail cleanly.
Limited to landing only single shots in the first encounter, Joshua needs to score in bunches, but landing combinations against such a smart and defence-savvy opponent is easier said than done.
🤩 "Usyk is a special, special talent. It’s his ring generalship that brought him to the dance and kept him there. Some said he was too small for Joshua but his movement, jab & boxing IQ were superior."
— Sporting Life 🎯🔴🎾⛳️🥊🏏🏉 🏈 (@SportingLifeFC) August 15, 2022
📝 We analyse how he can win #UsykJoshua2 👇https://t.co/qX8DdITNva
Joshua deserves plenty of credit for going straight back with a man who, stylistically, is all wrong for him, not just on paper but also on the evidence of the 12 rounds we have already witnessed between the pair. However, all the clues points towards this being another very tricky night for the Watford man, one that ends in a third defeat as a professional.
Joshua simply must throw more and be more aggressive, so this should be thrilling stuff early doors and Usyk may well have to overcome some hairy moments. However, the latter's superior skill set, boxing brain and experience can see him through those pressure points before he begins to take control.
It's 2/1 that Usyk repeats the dose with another points victory and that would come as no surprise. However, Usyk came close to getting the stoppage when the opportunity presented itself last time and that opening may arrive sooner here, as Joshua feels the effects of the higher pace of this encounter.
The value-seekers may want to opt for the 15/4 available for Usyk winning in rounds 7-12, but the ANYTIME STOPPAGE for the champion at 2/1 is the bet for me and I believe he can really put an exclamation mark on his second victory over British boxing's golden boy.
Once again, it can be the brain of Usyk that prevails over the brawn of Joshua, only this time in more exciting and conclusive fashion.
Posted at 1210 BST on 19/08/22
Oleksandr Usyk v Anthony Joshua 2: Date, start time, TV channel and cost
The blockbuster rematch is taking place on Saturday, August 20 at at King Abdullah Sports City, also nicknamed The Shining Jewel, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
The undercard is expected to begin from around 1800 BST, with the main event to start between 2230 BST and 2300 BST.
The fight will be shown on Sky Sports Box Office (Sky channel 491) and Sky Sports Box Office HD (Sky channel 492), with their broadcast starting from 1800 BST and will cost £26.95 for UK customers and €31.95 for Republic of Ireland customers.
You can also listen to the fight on talkSPORT.
Oleksandr Usyk v Anthony Joshua 2: Running order and undercard
- Oleksandr Usyk v Anthony Joshua (Approx 2230 BST)
WBA (Super), IBF, WBO and IBO heavyweight titles - Callum Smith v Mathieu Bauderlique
Final eliminator for WBC light heavyweight title - Filip Hrgovic v Zhilei Zhang
Final eliminator for IBF heavyweight title - Badou Jack v Richard Rivera
- Ramla Ali v Crystal Garcia Nova
- Andrew Tabiti v Tyrone Spong
- Daniel Lapin v Jozef Jurko
- Ziyad Almaayouf v Jose Alatorre
- MoneyKicks v Paevie (from around 1800 BST)
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