Chris Oliver expects Canelo to win over the judges in his trilogy fight with Gennady Golovkin – this time without any controversy.
Boxing betting tips: Canelo v Golovkin III
2pts Saul Alvarez to win by unanimous decision at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Almost four years to the day since their epic rematch, we finally get to see the trilogy fight between Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin in Las Vegas this weekend.
The two modern-day greats treated the fans to a pair of fantastic battles in 2017 and 2018 and, while the outcome of each bout was hotly-disputed, the verdict was unanimous among fans about wanting a third contest. Live on DAZN-PPV for UK fans, this classic rivalry could be put to bed in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Their first clash was arguably the most eagerly anticipated middleweight title fight since Marvin Hagler versus Tommy Hearns in 1985 and it didn't disappoint. Boasting a perfect 37-fight record, Golovkin was very much the king of the 160lb division and had left a trail of destruction in his wake during long and brutal reign. Canelo had rebounded from his sole loss to Floyd Mayweather with seven straight wins and the Mexican idol was very much the cash cow in his first title tilt at the weight.
Canelo moved well and looked to pick off the champion with his combinations, but Golovkin's relentless pressure soon began to take its toll and he had plenty of success as he regularly found a home for his ram-rod jab and walked the younger man down. Canelo finally held his feet late on and gave us a rousing finish, but most believed the champion had done more than enough for win number 38.
However, only one judge saw it that way and with one scoring it level, we ended up with a draw thanks to Adalaide Byrd's 118-110 verdict to Canelo. The latter scorecard is one of the worst in living memory and, unfortunately, the fight is remembered for that horrific piece of judging, rather than being a great night for the middleweight division.
Seemingly robbed of a deserved victory, Golovkin was very much the fan favourite heading into their rematch 12 months later, especially as Canelo has served a six-month suspension for two failed drugs tests in the interim. This time Canelo took the centre of the ring and looked to engage from the off, something Golovkin was all too happy to oblige, and an all-time classic was served up on the biggest stage of all.
After the high-level chess match first time around, this was a high-level war as they took turns in exchanging blows in a 'you go, I go' approach that left fans breathless and divided at the end of 12 enthralling rounds. Canelo certainly had greater success with his more positive tactics, but Golovkin did plenty of damage of his own and the manner in which he rallied after looking heavily fatigued at the end of round eight was the mark of a true champion.
Both technically brilliant, they exchanged non-stop blows for 36 minutes in one of the best fights of the modern era. I scored it 115-113 (seven rounds to five) in favour of 'GGG' and the majority seemed to make him the winner too, but it was clearly very close, and it was no robbery that all three judges delivered that same score in favour of Canelo.
Canelo odds-on to end trilogy with win
The general consensus is that Golovkin shouldn't have a loss on his record and was treated a little unfairly by the judges over those 24 rounds. However, life is rarely fair, and neither is boxing, especially for the Kazakh legend who finally gets his shot at redemption as a 40-year-old and now seemingly past his best. That is reflected in the betting as the best on offer about Canelo is 2/9 and he is as short as 1/7, while Golovkin, despite his brilliance in their previous encounters, is available at 5/1.
Golovkin has won all four outings since that one defeat on his record but has looked far from impressive in doing so and put several more miles on the clock in the process. Steve Rolls (KO4) and Kamil Szeremeta (RTD7) were dispatched easily enough, but Sergiy Derevyanchenko (UD) pushed 'GGG' extremely close in their 12-round tear-up in 2019 and Ryota Murata (TKO9) give him hell early doors on his latest outing in April. We had never really seen Golovkin hurt before, but he was clearly in trouble at times in those latter two victories, mainly to the body, and his output dropped.
In Golovkin's defence, he was entitled to be a little ring-rusty after 16 months out last time and fighting in Japan is never easy for away fighters. There is also the fact that he may not have been motivated by those challenges in the same way that he will be for the third instalment of this fierce rivalry, and we can expect better from him now Canelo is in the opposite corner again.
In contrast, Canelo has taken his career to new heights in his nine subsequent appearances. Good wins over Daniel Jacobs (UD) and light heavyweight Sergey Kovalev (KO11) preceded a stunning 11-month venture in the super middleweight division, which saw him become the undisputed champion in four fights and beat three previously unbeaten champions in great style along the way.
However, we got a reminder that he is human, after all, when his latest attempt at light heavyweight glory resulted in a humbling defeat to Dimitri Bivol in May. He dared to be great and there was no shame in coming up short, but he looked slow and ponderous for much of the fight, then tiring like we have never seen before in the latter stages.
Bivol controlled the distance brilliantly with his excellent footwork, used his size to take Canelo's shots when they did get close and then always fired straight back to make the Mexican work when he didn't want to. There is the blueprint on how to beat Canelo, but Golovkin has a very different style, and he does not have the size or the engine nowadays of Bivol.
What are @Canelo's best KOs? 🤔
— DAZN Boxing (@DAZNBoxing) September 16, 2022
Hear from the man himself. 👊#CaneloGGG3 pic.twitter.com/wg3LrXPALi
What's the best bet?
If that was just a blip and Canelo is back to his best now fighting at super middleweight again, then Golovkin could be in trouble. That is far from guaranteed, though, as history is littered with examples of boxers who have never been the same when coming back down in weight after chancing their arm against bigger foes. So, we must consider the possibility that, like Golovkin, Canelo is also on the decline.
Another weight-related subplot is this being Golovkin's first contest at 168lb after making middleweight for the whole of his long career as both amateur and professional. Not having to boil down as much may give him the new lease of life he needs at this stage of his career, but it could also go the other way and, similar to Canelo last time, the extra weight might not suit him.
These two are so well matched, and their styles gel so perfectly, that's it's hard to envisage anything but another fan-friendly dust-up. A fast start from Golovkin could amplify any lingering doubts in Canelo's mind after being outboxed last time and 'GGG' can do well early on if he can get his jab going from the off, a weapon he had plenty of success with in their first two fights. However, as in the rematch, I expect Canelo to come out firing again and it should quickly catch fire between these familiar dance partners.
Expect to see another close and exciting battle early on, with both men having success, but Canelo could really stamp his authority from the halfway mark as the older man begins to feel the pace. The Mexican targeted the body more in the second fight and it seems certain he will raid downstairs plenty again here, looking to slow Golovkin down and knowing he is vulnerable in that area.
By the later rounds, the underdog's petrol gauge could be flashing red and that brings the Canelo second-half stoppage into the equation at 3/1. However, having never been down or stopped, 'GGG' will be hellbent on ensuring that doesn't change against his bitterest rival.
Canelo's decision to make Golovkin wait for this third encounter can pay dividends and he is taken to pick up another decision victory, only this time without the controversy and debate after the final bell. The 11/10 about him winning on points looks very solid, but Sky Bet go 7/4 about a UNANIMOUS DECISION in the Mexican's favour and, given the Canelo-tinted glasses through which judges usually see his fights, that rates better value.
While most are hoping we see the Golovkin of old, we may instead just see an old Golovkin. Perhaps this time there will be no doubt as to the outcome of what promises to be a brilliant fight.
Posted at 1220 BST on 16/09/22
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Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez v Gennady Golovkin: Date, start time, TV channel and cost
The blockbuster trilogy fight is taking place on Saturday, September 17 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The main event is expected to get underway on at around 5am UK time on Sunday September 18, while the undercard is expected to begin around 1am.
It will be broadcast exclusively live by streaming service DAZN on their pay-per-view platform. Existing subscribers will be able to purchase the event at £9.99 in the UK while new subscribers will required to pay £16.98, which includes a one-month subscription to the platform.
You can also listen to the fight on talkSPORT.
Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez v Gennady Golovkin: Running order and undercard
- Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez v Gennady Golovkin (Approx 5am BST)
- Jesse Rodriguez Franco vs Israel Gonzalez – WBC super flyweight title
- Ali Akhmedov vs Gabriel Rosado
- Austin Williams vs Kieron Conway
- Diego Pacheco vs Enrique Collazo
- Marc Castro vs Kevin Montiel Mendoza
- Aaron Aponte vs Fernando Angel Molina
- Anthony Herrera vs Delvin McKinley
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