Will Dean has enjoyed a profitable month so far and now provides four selections across three fights at UFC Vegas 60.
MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 60
2pts Joe Pyfer to win in round one at 11/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1.5pts Sara McMann to win at 6/5 (Coral)
0.5pt Sara McMann to win by decision at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Gillian Robertson to win by submission at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
The UFC’s business model makes no secret about its reliance on up-and-coming stars born from Dana White’s Contender Series, but UFC Vegas 40 will take things to a whole new level. Of the 28 fighters competing on the card, 13 of them begun their journey with the Tuesday night show.
Many have argued that the overall calibre of UFC fighters has decreased as a result of the show, but Dana White and the matchmakers certainly know how to create stars, and the opportunity to get to know the fighters better has been instrumental in launching the careers of fighters such as Sean O’Malley and Kevin Holland.
'Be Joe Pyfer'
The Contender Series returned for its sixth season in July, but the opening episode of the show caught headlines for all the wrong reasons. White often describes the premise as 'the toughest job interview ever', where he expects fighters to hunt for an emphatic finish and not settle for a decision. After unimpressive displays by all participants in the first four fights, you could tell the UFC President was not best pleased. That was until JOE PYFER entered the cage for the fifth and final fight.
BodyBagz displayed a clear desire to secure a finish against his opponent, ultimately landing a spectacular one-punch knockout in the second round – forcing White and the rest of the UFC brass to their feet amongst a chorus of excited screams. In that moment, the frustrations of the wasted opportunities from other fighters were forgotten, and the UFC had found their next star to promote. White doubled down in his post-fight interviews, scolding the other fighters and imploring future candidates to simply 'Be Joe Pyfer' – further adding to the excitement around the fighter from Pennsylvania.
The symbol of what the #DWCS is all about - Be Joe Pyfer.
— UFC (@ufc) September 15, 2022
[ #DWCS Next Level is LIVE on https://t.co/YEBaVfKkqi ] pic.twitter.com/CVjYy3jhfP
The UFC’s gratitude towards Pyfer has clearly been factored into the matchmaking for his first fight, as he faces struggling Middleweight Alen Amedovski. The Macedonian entered the UFC in 2019 and has clearly looked a step behind his opponents – losing almost every second of a decision loss to Kryzsztof Jotko, followed by consecutive stoppage losses in 14 and 64 seconds to John Phillips and Joseph Holmes respectively.
The stage seems to have already been set for Pyfer, now he just needs to go out and perform. Amedovski has shown clear defensive and durability issues inside the cage, and his defensive grappling is unlikely to be enough to stop the 25-year-old’s submission threat.
Whether by knockout or tap-out, Pyfer can add to his ever-growing popularity with a quick and dominant finish here, so backing PYFER TO WIN IN ROUND ONE is the preferred play at 11/10.
Olympic credentials
Athletes who begin their careers in wrestling often find their way to Mixed Martial Arts, with the grappling-based discipline widely respected as the most important skillset to succeed inside the cage. Many of the sport’s key names in the last 25 years have come from a wrestling background, but few are as qualified as SARA MCMANN, who became the first American woman in history to receive a silver medal in Olympic Wrestling in Athens in 2004.
The 41-year-old McMann has had a long and prosperous career in MMA since then, even challenging Ronda Rousey for the UFC Bantamweight title in 2014. Though McMann may have been unsuccessful in her quest for gold, she has cemented herself as one of the most difficult stylistic challenges for any fighter, due to her grappling dominance. On Saturday night, the former Olympic wrestler faces another dominant grappler in Aspen Ladd.
Ladd has made a name for herself with her vicious ground striking, winning three of her first five UFC bouts via TKO. Since initially being touted as a serious young prospect, the Californian has fallen on hard times – struggling with weight cut issues and fighting with some questionable gameplans in her two most recent fights.
The winner of this fight will almost undoubtedly be decided by whoever can establish more time in the top position. Ladd is clearly the more dangerous of the two and will be the much more likely to secure a finish from the ground, but McMann has a clear advantage in the wrestling department and should be able to prevent Ladd from ever getting there.
In short, McMann is slightly better at everything Ladd is good at. However, the former Olympian still finds herself as the betting underdog on Saturday night – most likely due to her age. At 41, many instantly denounce an older fighter and believe that time could catch up with them at any moment. Contrary to this, McMann is just six months removed from one of her best career performances and shows no signs of slowing down any time soon.
Ladd has concerns of her own, having recently caught COVID, returning from a recent knee injury, and continuously struggling with her weight cuts, which to me cancels out any concerns about McMann’s age. In a fight where one woman is clearly the better grappler than the other, I am more than happy to trust MCMANN TO WIN this weekend, especially as a 6/5 underdog.
Ladd has always been a durable competitor, which McMann herself has also acknowledged in pre-fight interviews. She has never been much of a prolific finisher, having won on the scorecards in seven of her 13 wins. For an added wager, MCMANN TO WIN BY DECISION also appeals at 2/1.
Submission Savage
Despite having not yet competed for a UFC title or entered the division’s top five, Canada’s GILLIAN ROBERTSON is a clear fan favourite. The Savage is such a strong submission threat that any fight she is paired into turns into a stylistic clash, with fans eager to see whether her grappling ability can outmatch her opponent’s likely striking advantage.
Saturday night’s preliminary bout against Mariya Agapova should be no different, as the Khazakhstan-born striker is the epitome of aggression and hot-headedness. Ten of Demonslayer’s professional fights have ended inside the distance, with her front-loaded style so difficult to overcome in the early goings.
Conversely, Agapova has struggled to manage her cardio over 15 minutes due to her style, leaving her vulnerable to being finished herself in the latter half of fights. As a result, Agapova was the unfortunate victim of the second biggest underdog victory in UFC history, when she fatigued and suffered a second-round knockout loss as a 1/10 favourite.
Agapova’s style is so imposing that it has led many of her opponents to seek solace in initiating the grappling, which is where Robertson excels. The Savage holds the record for the most UFC submission victories by a female fighter (seven), and will undoubtedly be looking to use Agapova’s forward momentum against her as quickly as she can.
We have seen the Kazakh fighter display some poor defensive manoeuvres from the bottom in her UFC career so far, most notably with the frequency at which she gives up her back. Against Robertson, this would be a fatal error, as the Canadian specialises in locking up a lightning fast Read Naked Choke.
Robertson has the potential to win this fight early or late, and a finish is likely any time she holds a dominant position. Given the defensive holes of Agapova, as well as Robertson’s dedication to hunting for chokes, a bet on ROBERTSON TO WIN BY SUBMISSION at 7/4 is definitely worth investing in.
Posted at 1300 BST on 16/09/22
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