Boxing expert Chris Oliver previews Saturday night's big-fight action as Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez bids to get back to winning ways when he takes on Christian Mbilli in Riyadh.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday October 31
2pts Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez to win by unanimous decision at 7/5 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez is hoping he won’t be in for a fright on Halloween when he takes on Christian Mbilli in Riyadh on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
Canelo (63-3-2, 39 KOs), who was once the biggest draw and best fighter in the sport, hasn’t fought since losing a unanimous decision to the weight-jumping Terrence Crawford last September and he is bidding to regain the WBC super middleweight title he lost that night.
This is not just about the man in the opposite corner, though, as the Mexican legend is also fighting Father Time and that may be his biggest battle here after more than 20 years as a professional.
What does Canelo have left in the tank?
Canelo is a 2/5 chance to make a winning return and a few years ago this fight with Mbilli, who can be backed at 5/2, would have been considered an easy night’s work for the favourite. However, Canelo isn’t the fighter he once was, and the outcome this weekend will likely be decided by how much the 36-year-old has declined in his 13 months out of the ring.
The former pound-for-pound number one was arguably at his best when scooping up all four belts at this weight with a brilliant quartet of wins against unbeaten champions in a superb 11-month period over 2020 and 2021. After losing to Dimitry Bivol at light heavyweight, Canelo returned to 168lbs to with six points wins before coming up against Crawford and he now has to prove he still has enough left to remain at boxing’s top table.
At his best, Canelo was a joy to watch with his excellent upper body movement, vicious combination punching and aggressive style. However, he has understandably slowed down now and doesn’t throw punches in bunches anymore, with his engine also a major concern.
Mbilli a tough test
That’s why Mbilli is such an interesting opponent, as he is a high-volume pressure fighter who can make Canelo work harder than he would like to.
The Frenchman is unbeaten in 30 outings (29-0-1, 24 KOs) and was upgraded to full champion after winning the WBC interim title when knocking out Maciej Sulecki in a round and then defending it with a split draw against the unbeaten Lester Martinez on the Canelo-Crawford undercard.
That victory over Sulecki highlighted his power and he can really whack, while he goes to the body very well and takes a good shot, too.
So, if Canelo’s decline has quickened and his body isn’t up to the tough examination that is sure to come from a physical fighter like Mbilli, then an upset could well be on the cards.
However, even though he was a betting favourite when losing to Crawford, Canelo performed well in that narrow points loss and if he is still at that sort of level, then he should have too much skill for Mbilli.
Superior skills point to Canelo
The latter has a high work rate and can certainly bang, but there isn’t much creativity or skill to his attacks as he marches forward looking to land heavy hooks and uppercuts. With a lack of head movement, the champion is quite easy to hit and is pretty basic in his approach.
Canelo Alvarez and Christian Mbilli FACE-OFF ahead of their fight Saturday‼️
— Source of Boxing (@Sourceofboxing) October 29, 2026
Canelo looks to become a 3x super middleweight champion with a win 🏆 pic.twitter.com/lYFdhG338t
Therefore, someone as skilled and clever in the ring as Canelo should be able to avoid the heavy stuff and land plenty of power shots of his own. Even if Mbilli does land, Canelo has always shown a tremendous chin and has never been down, so you would expect him to stand up to the power of the underdog.
Mbilli will look to outwork the challenger and drag him into the trenches, but he is predictable and could end up plodding forward with little gameplan. Providing his body is still up to it, then Canelo can ensure this step up in class is a bridge too far for Mbilli.
Canelo’s feet may have slowed but he still has better footwork than the methodical Mbilli and while the former’s output has dropped, his accuracy remains and he should be able to regularly find the target against his defensively limited opponent.
Canelo, who has a huge edge in ring IQ, will aim to slow the pace down and land the cleaner shots. That sort of fight will be right up Canelo’s street and it’s not hard to see it playing out that way, especially if Mbilli becomes hesitant to let his hands go because he’s regularly getting countered.
What is the best bet?
You have to go back nearly five years to when Canelo last stopped an opponent and all the clues point to him regaining the title on the scorecards, but it is only 8/11 for him to win by decision.
However, you can get 7/5 for Canelo to win by unanimous decision in the exact method of victory market and, in what represents a drop in class for the former champion, he can make his class tell on his way to a clear points victory.
Posted at 12:10 GMT on 30/10/26
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