There's a Christmas treat for boxing fans in the shape of Saturday's 'Night Of The Samurai', where two Japanese stars can set up a showdown in 2026.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday December 27
2pts Naoya Inoue to win in rounds 7-12 at 2/1 (William Hill)
1pt Junto Nakatani to win in rounds 1-6 at 13/5 (William Hill)
Boxing fans are in for a Christmas treat with a quality double-header from Riyadh on Saturday morning.
NAOYA INOUE and JUNTO NAKATANI are the joint-headliners on a big card in Saudi Arabia and, providing both prevail, they are set to face each other next year in the biggest fight ever in Japanese boxing.
However, boxing is littered with shock victories when similar scenarios have been set up in the past and both men must tread carefully when negotiating these potential banana skins, even though their respective odds suggest there is little threat.
Inoue (31-0, 27 KOs) is a best price of 1/20 as he defends his undisputed super bantamweight titles against Alan Picasso, who can be backed at 12/1 to derail the seemingly unstoppable train of the Japanese superstar.
Picasso is unbeaten in 33 outings, with his one draw coming in just his fifth fight over seven years ago, and is dangerous in the sense that he doesn’t know how to lose yet.
At 5’8”, the Mexican has decent height and reach advantages here and he has a good left hook, the same punch that both Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas dropped Inoue with in 2024 and 2025 respectively.
However, Inoue is generally ranked near the top of everyone’s pound-for-pound rankings for good reason and this represents a step up in class for Picasso.
A four-weight world champion, Inoue has dominated the lowered weights for some time now and he stopped 11 opponents in a row from October 2020 to May this year.
He was taken the distance by Murodjon Akhmadaliev when last seen in September but claimed a unanimous decision with ease and made a fight with a very good opponent look easy.
Some did take the fact that Inoue went the full 12 rounds for the first time since 2019 as a possible sign of decline, and he has subsequently spoken about holding back at times in that fight. He admits his eagerness to please fans may have been the cause of his knockdowns versus Nery and Cardenas, and even though he roared back to stop those opponents, he may be a little more cautious now at 32.
Picasso, who likes to come forward, is fairly easy to hit and should be tailor-made for Inoue, so the 1/6 for the latter to win by stoppage shouldn’t be in danger, and you can get 11/10 about him doing so in the first six rounds.
However, the physical advantages of his opponent and the manner in which Inoue boxed with more restraint last time out suggest the value could lie with him winning in the second half of the fight at 2/1.
It’s still too early to suggest Inoue is on the slide but, having risen through the weights, he is fighting bigger men now and may be looking to prolong his career by boxing in a more calculated manner.
Winning Nak
At a top price of 1/14, Nakatani also faces a young, unbeaten Mexican in the shape of Sebastian Hernandez, who is available at 9/1.
The intrigue in this one is the fact it is Nakatani’s first outing at super bantamweight, having looked brilliant in holding titles at the three weights below and amassing an impressive record of 31-0 (24 KOs).
The 27-year-old has won his last five outings in the first six rounds and this offensive whirlwind looks very much at the peak of his powers right now.
Ready to welcome him to the 122lb division is Hernandez, who has 18 early wins from a perfect 20-fight record and that suggests he has the power to cause the smaller man some problems if he lands clean.
That is a big ‘if’, though, as the outsider has been mixing in relatively mediocre company and, as he marches forward behind his high guard, he could be walking straight into the fire of the Nakatani’s varied arsenal.
The favourite has every punch in the book at his disposal and puts them together very well. He is 4/9 to get this done inside the distance and with their respective styles possibly spelling fireworks from the first bell, I am leaning towards Nakatani winning in the first six rounds at 13/5.
Let’s hope they both do the business and we get to see a genuine super fight between Inoue and Nakatani, which will be near the top of most boxing fans’ wish list for 2026.
Posted at 1810 GMT on 24/12/25
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Both of these like to go for the knockout and they carry power, but I expect Marshall to have too much on her return to boxing and the 4/1 about her getting a stoppage looks too big to me.
