A busy weekend in boxing begins with a Friday night blockbuster as two stars of the women's sport complete their trilogy. Chris Oliver has the preview.
Boxing betting tips: Friday July 11
2pts Katie Taylor to win by decision at 19/10 (Unibet)
1pt Alycia Baumgardner to win by stoppage at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Savannah Marshall to win by stoppage at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano return to the venue of their first encounter in New York as they complete their trilogy in the early hours of Saturday morning.
They headline a tremendous all-female card staged by Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions that will be watched by a huge worldwide audience as it is streamed for free to all Netflix subscribers. Paul takes plenty of stick for his involvement in boxing but the good he has done for the women’s game, and especially their bank balances, cannot be denied.
Taylor and Serrano made history in April 2022 when they contested the first female headline bout at the iconic Madison Square Garden and the sell-out show exceeded all expectations in front of a deafening crowd.
Two legends do battle once again
After a frenetic 10 rounds of back-and-forth action, Taylor nicked a close and debated decision, and she did the same in their rematch at the AT & T Stadium in Arlington in November. Serrano was doing well until a clash of heads opened up a huge gash on her eye and Taylor closed the show to get another decision which was hotly disputed among fans.
It’s unusual to see a trilogy fight when it is two-nil to one of the combatants, but it tells you how close and good the first two bouts were that we’re seeing this for a third time.
Even before they gave us possibly the two greatest female fights of all time, their legacies were cemented. Serrano is having her 20th world title contest and has been champion at seven different weights, while Taylor’s CV is stacked full of top-quality opponents and 17 consecutive world title fights makes her achievements arguably as impressive as Serrano’s.
What are the best bets?
While there was very little separating their prices in the first two encounters, Serrano is a little shorter for this one at 4/6, with Taylor available at 8/5.
The perception of the layers appears to be that the younger Serrano (36) will be the fresher against the 39-year-old Taylor, who has had plenty of wars in her 25-fight career (one loss). Also, many feel that Serrano ‘deserves’ a victory in this trilogy, but Taylor seems to keep pulling big performances out of the bag and it would be foolish think she isn’t capable of doing so again.
On both occasions so far, Taylor has had the speed advantage and being the naturally bigger of the two, the undisputed super lightweight champion has enjoyed success with her quick feet and rapid combinations.
Serrano (47-3-1), on the other hand, has been the puncher despite stepping up from her more natural division of featherweight. The Puerto Rican southpaw has looked to walk Taylor down and do damage with her heavy hands, which she has done in both fights – most famously in the fifth round of the first encounter when Taylor came very close to being stopped.
However, in her eagerness to land power shots, Serrano has, at times, played into the hands of Taylor, who sets a very high pace for the 10, two-minute rounds and catches the judges’ eyes with her lightning-quick punches in bunches before spinning out of range.
Their first two fights will have taken something out of both ladies and if Taylor has slowed down, then she may not be able to get her combinations off and skip away like she has done before.
Her ability to keep bouncing back has been nothing short of remarkable, though, and just when she looked to be on the slide in her sole defeat to Chantelle Cameron in May 2023, she came back to win the rematch in style six months later.
These two are so well matched and there is likely going to be very little between them every time they fight, so another cracking 10 rounds of action looks in store.
I have been with Serrano on points for both fights to date, but that outcome was a 2/1 chance last time and is only a best price of evens now, so Taylor to claim another decision at 19/10 is the value call.
After all, that has been the outcome of the last two contests between this pair and the fact that Serrano is fighting well above her natural weight again could be a deciding factor.
Baumgardner backed for stoppage win
Undisputed super featherweight queen Alycia Baumgardner returns to action against Jennifer Miranda, who is unbeaten in 12 but only has one stoppage and has never fought outside of Spain.
The visitor is in deep against the very talented Baumgardner (15-1), who hasn’t been seen since September when she dropped Delfine Persoon before a clash of heads caused a cut that led to a no contest in the fourth round.
Baumgardner is a warm favourite, having mixed in much better company, while she also has seven knockouts to her name and can certainly dig a bit. Therefore, the 15/8 available about stopping an opponent who looks a level below could be worth taking.
Big night for the Brits
There are three British fighters on the undercard, and I fancy them all to prevail.
It’s great to see Ellie Scotney and Chantelle Cameron being signed up by MVP and appearing on this show. They can notch decision wins against Yamileth Mercado and Jessica Camara respectively, but they are both priced accordingly and Savannah Marshall by stoppage may be where the value lies.
The Hartlepool native takes on Shadasia Green in a battle of big-hitting super middleweight champions, with 21 KOs between them in 28 wins.
Having lost her unbeaten record to the self-proclaimed ‘GWOAT’ in Claressa Shields, Marshall bounced back with a comfortable points success over Franchon Crews Dezurn and although that was two years ago, she has been active in MMA since.
Green (15-1) was beaten by Dezurn five months later and only just scraped by Melinda Watpool via a split decision to win her WBO strap when last seen in November.
Posted at 1500 BST on 10/07/25
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Both of these like to go for the knockout and they carry power, but I expect Marshall to have too much on her return to boxing and the 4/1 about her getting a stoppage looks too big to me.
