Boxing betting tips: Day of Reckoning preview featuring Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder
Chris Oliver previews Saturday's stacked card in Riyadh, where Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder can set up their 2024 showdown.
Boxing betting tips: Day of Reckoning
3pts Jay Opetaia to win in rounds 1-6 at evens (Sky Bet)
2pts Anthony Joshua to win by decision at 13/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Deontay Wilder to win in rounds 7-12 at 11/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Christmas comes early for boxing fans with a mouthwatering feast of fights in Riyadh on Saturday night.
The blockbuster card is stacked with big names from top to bottom and the event has seen a host of rival promoters put their bad blood aside to work together, which shows just what can be achieved when the Saudis flash their cash, and they certainly have plenty of it.
We’re told that Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder have agreed terms to return to the Middle East and finally get it on in March, but they must both first win this weekend, and that is by no means a foregone conclusion. Both face potentially tricky tasks and questions over what they have left, so there are some nervous moments ahead for those of us who desperately want to see that long-awaited showdown between the former champions.
Long night ahead for AJ
We’ll start with Joshua, who is a 2/7 chance to overcome a man he knows very well in the shape of Otto Wallin (10/3).
‘AJ’ beat Wallin twice as an amateur and brought the Swede in as a sparring partner ahead of his first world title attempt against Charles Martin in 2016, but a lot of water has gone under the bridge since those days, and another victory for the Brit may not be straightforward.
As has been well documented, Joshua has become more tentative in recent years and developed into more of a boxer than a fighter. While that may be a good move in terms of career longevity, he has been neglecting the attacking strengths that helped him get to the top in such style, and the seemingly gun-shy version of Joshua has attracted plenty of criticism.
There was no shame in being outboxed by the excellent Oleksandr Usyk in back-to-back defeats, but the Watford native continued in safety-first mode when outpointing big underdog Jermaine Franklin in April and it took him a long time to get going when stopping late replacement Robert Helenius in the seventh round four months ago.
Wallin (26-1) is best known for his bloody battle with Tyson Fury, when the latter needed nearly 50 stitches to heal a very serious cut, and nobody could have argued if the fight had been stopped due to the severe gash. Ultimately, Wallin lost a clear decision, but he gave Fury a hard night’s work and has won all six outings since, so will arrive full of confidence.
His level of opposition has been well below that of Joshua, but Wallin boxed very well when gaining a decision over former cruiserweight champion Murat Gassiev in September and he looks ready for another shot at the big time.
An interesting subplot is Joshua now being trained by Ben Davison, who was in Fury’s corner against Wallin in 2019 and will know this opponent very well. However, given that it is Joshua’s fifth head coach in the last three years, another switch could well be a negative rather than a positive.
A very tidy boxer who does the basics well, Wallin boxes tidily on the move behind a busy jab and, furthermore, he does so from a southpaw stance. Admittedly, he is no Usyk, but we saw how much Joshua struggled with the left-handed Ukrainian in their two fights and the portsider Wallin can give AJ plenty to think about.
The 7/1 about Wallin winning by decision is certainly tempting and I can see a lot of the rounds being very tight, but I can’t escape the feeling that he would need to win very clearly to get the nod from the judges here and the underdog’s defensive approach may not be to their liking.
A fourth career defeat for Joshua this weekend would derail the money-spinning Wilder showdown but the odds-on favourite still has plenty to offer, despite his growing army of detractors. If Joshua picks up where he left off against Helenius, when he finally stepped in and committed with his right-hand for a one-punch knockout, then AJ could get the stoppage (7/4) and possibly in the second half (10/3) as Wallin becomes less mobile.
That highlight reel KO may have been the confidence-booster he needed, but it didn’t erase the memory of the first six rounds of that contest, or the previous 12 against Franklin. So, once again, I see Joshua coming out behind his jab and being reluctant to commit to his tactics against a southpaw, resulting in a cagey chess match as both men look to establish their lead hand.
That points me in the direction of JOSHUA WINNING BY DECISION at 5/4, especially with the judges potentially being swayed by organisers being ‘all-in’ on AJ versus Wilder for the spring. Wallin is certainly capable of making it a tough night’s work for Britain’s golden boy.
Day of Reckoning: Fight card, running order
- MAIN EVENT: Anthony Joshua (1/4) v Otto Wallin (11/4) (Approx 11.45 GMT)
- Deontay Wilder (1/6) v Joseph Parker (4/1)
- Daniel Dubois (4/11) v Jarrell Miller (9/4)
- Dmitry Bivol (1/20) v Lyndon Arthur (10/1) - for WBA lightweight title
- Arslanbek Makhmudov (1/16) v Agit Kabayel (8/1)
- Jai Opetaia (1/33) v Ellis Zorro (10/1)
- Filip Hrgovic (1/66) v Mark de Mori (12/1)
- Frank Sanchez (1/33) v Junior Fa (10/1)
Start time and TV coverage details
- Undercard: Approx 16.15 GMT, Saturday December 23
- Main Event: Approx 11.45 GMT
- TV channel and cost: DAZN PPV & TNT Sports (both £19.99)
Wilder worth the wait
Wilder could also be given plenty to think about by Joseph Parker when they clash in the co-main event.
Wilder brings excitement to the party with his unbelievable power, and his record of winning by stoppage in all but one of this 43 wins is very special. However, we’ve seen him outboxed before pulling it out of the bag on several occasions and Parker will fancy his chances of proving too skilful for the 1/6 favourite.
A 9/2 chance to upset the apple cart, Parker is a former champion who arrives on a three-fight winning streak and on the back of an impressive third-round stoppage of Simon Kean here in October. At his best, he has the speed and footwork to cause all sorts of trouble for Wilder, whose feet aren’t the quickest and whose lack of fundamental skills has been evident throughout his career.
Another confidence-boosting factor for Team Parker is that Wilder has only boxed one round since the last instalment of his epic trilogy with Fury in October 2021. We still don’t know what damage the two brutal beatings he received from the ‘Gypsy King’ have done to Wilder, as we didn’t see enough of him against Helenius 14 months ago to gauge that.
However, what we did see is that Wilder still carries dynamite in his right hand as he rendered his opponent unconscious with one shot at the end of the first session.
Parker can be elusive for long periods and has the skills to open a good early lead on the scorecards, but the question is whether he can keep that up for 12 rounds and I fear the answer is no.
Since losing his belt to Joshua five years ago, Parker has also been in his fair share of wars, most notably when stopped by Joe Joyce in the 11th round of their tear-up in September last year. He also received plenty of punishment in his pair of points wins over Derek Chisora (2021) and his earlier defeat to Dillian Whyte (2018).
The 31-year-old from New Zealand has plenty of miles on the clock and while he may look good when the engine is purring early on, he could be a sitting duck when the warning light starts to flash. The legs of Parker may begin to tire around the middle rounds and Wilder won’t need a second invitation to dispose of his man, possibly in the SECOND HALF of the fight, and that outcome makes plenty of appeal at 11/5.
The Saudis clearly like the big men, and the undercard is stacked with heavyweight action, most notably Daniel Dubois versus Jarrell Miller.
Pretty much every fan in the sport will be hoping heavy-handed Dubois can dish out some punishment to the prolific drug cheat, and he is 4/9 to prevail here. However, the Greenwich native has questions to answer regarding his heart after, not for the first time, he chose to get out of the kitchen when things got too hot against Usyk in the summer.
Despite his numerous misdemeanours, Miller (21/10) remains unbeaten and also carries serious power, so this should be very entertaining while it lasts.
Someone’s ‘0’ has got to go when Arslanbek Makhmudov (1/9) takes on Agit Kabayel (8/1), while the promising Frank Sanchez (1/14) battles Junior Fa (10/1) in what could a livelier fight than the odds suggest. Conversely, Mark De Mori (18/1) has no business being in the ring with Filip Hrgovic (1/50) and the unbeaten Croat should justify his prohibitive odds with minimal fuss.
Zorro unmasked?
There are two world title fights involving British fighters on the bill, but it is likely to be a case of how they lose rather than if they can win.
Manchester’s Lyndon Arthur (18/1) challenges 2022 Fighter of the Year Dmitrii Bivol (1/20) for the latter’s light heavyweight titles and the champion, who hasn’t registered a stoppage victory in well over five years, can record another easy points success (10/11).
London’s Ellis Zorro (12/1) may not get off as lightly and he looks to be in for a painful night against the number one cruiserweight in the world, JAY OPETAIA.
Zorro has a perfect 17-fight record but hasn’t boxed anyone near world level and, with just seven stoppages to his name, he doesn’t have the power to keep off the heavy-hitting 1/16 favourite.
Such is the jump up in class for Zorro, the IBF chose to strip Opetaia instead of sanction this bout and it will be an achievement for the Brit just to hear the final bell, with Opetaia only 1/5 to win inside the distance.
After dethroning the division’s king, Mairis Briedis, via unanimous decision, Opetaia came to the UK to beat up Jordan Thompson in four brutally one-sided rounds last time out, and the Australian looks the real deal.
An athletic southpaw with speed and power, the aggressive favourite will be looking to do damage from the get-go, and it shouldn’t take too long before he has Zorro in trouble. I think this could be very similar to the Thompson fight and I recommend taking the even-money with Sky Bet for Opetaia to get the job done in the FIRST SIX ROUNDS.
Posted at 1420 GMT on 22/12/23
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