Boxing betting tips: Dalton Smith v Jose Zepeda and Terri Harper v Sandy Ryan

Boxing betting tips: Saturday March 23

2pts double Dalton Smith and Sandy Ryan both to win by decision at 9/4 (Sky Bet)

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For the second week running, a Yorkshireman takes on a man named Zepeda in a real crossroads fight.

Last Saturday in Las Vegas, British veteran Maxi Hughes was pulled out by his corner after four very painful rounds against hot prospect William Zepeda, landing a 5/2 winner for this column in the process.

The roles are reversed in Sheffield this weekend, with unbeaten local DALTON SMITH stepping up to take on Jose Zepeda, who has seen it all at super lightweight in his 15 years as a professional.

There was plenty of hype surrounding Smith when he turned over to the paid ranks in 2019 and, having cruised to the 15-0 (11 early) mark with little fuss, everyone is ready to see if he can prove himself above domestic level now. The 27-year-old is just 4/11 to continue his winning streak but, make no mistake, this is a big step up for the Sheffield native.

Zepeda’s (37-4) best wins dwarf anything his opponent has done to date, most notably victories over Jose Pedraza (UD) and Ivan Baranchyk (KO5) in 2019 and 2020 respectively, while his first three losses all came in world title challenges. The first of those was his previous visit to the UK in 2015, when he was forced to retire early on with a dislocated shoulder against Terry Flanagan, while he pushed Jose Carlos Ramirez to a close decision in 2019 and gave Regis Prograis a good fight until he was stopped in the 11th round of their 2022 fight.

However, it is his most recent loss that means he can be backed at 3/1 here, as he was comprehensively outboxed and beaten up by the highly promising Richardson Hitchins over 12 very one-sided rounds just six months ago. Was that down to just how good Hitchens is, or was it because of the decline in Zepeda? We will find out on Saturday night.

Zepeda, who likes to get on with things, is at his best when pressing the action on the front foot and throwing plenty of heavy leather. If there are any chinks in the armour of Smith, the visitor is likely to find them with his constant pressure.

However, Zepeda has never been hard to find, and his aggressive style could really suit Smith, a patient counterpuncher who likes his opponents to come to him. The favourite has the speed and precision to be very dangerous on the backfoot here and can use his opponent’s aggression against him.

Smith had his way with Sam Maxwell before brutally stopping him in the seventh session last time out and although this will be a completely different test for the local man, it is one I think he can pass.

While Zepeda will be coming to win and this could be closer than the odds suggest, I think home advantage and the upward trajectory of Smith are enough to suggest the latter can prevail in this fascinating contest. It would be a huge statement if Smith could stop the visitor (11/4), but only Prograis has managed to do that legitimately so far and Smith isn’t on that level yet. You can get evens with Sky Bet for Smith to win by decision and that looks the most likely outcome.

It may not have been the case if this had happened a year earlier, but Team Smith may have got their timing perfect for this one and they look to be getting Zepeda at just the right time.

Fellow local Terri Harper has become a regular on Matchroom’s Sheffield Arena shows and she is back in an intriguing all-British world title fight against SANDY RYAN.

After losing her super featherweight belt to Alycia Baumgardner in 2021, Harper jumped up three weight classes and picked up the WBA super welterweight strap with a points victory over Ivana Habazin 10 months ago and, following a majority draw with Cecilia Braekhus in October, the 27-year-old from Doncaster now drops to welterweight.

Ryan (6-1-1) may be less experienced in the professional ranks but the 1/3 favourite was a top amateur for several years and arrives on the back of a career-best performance, when she seemingly did more than enough to add Jessica McCaskill’s belts at 147lb to her own WBO title. However, in what was arguably the worst decision of 2023, Ryan was robbed of a big-name victory when the judges returned a split draw.

Despite not getting her deserved reward, it remains fresh in the memory just how well Ryan boxed that night, and she can repeat the dose against Harper, a 10/3 chance here, on that evidence.

Harper didn’t look great when scraping a draw with the 42-year-old Braekhus and she has something to prove now. As usual with the two-minute rounds in female boxing, this is highly likely to go the full 10-round distance and Ryan to win by decision is a confident selection at 4/6 (William Hill).

DOUBLE that up with Smith to record the same result and you have a 9/4 play for the night.

Posted at 1100 GMT on 22/03/24

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