Boxing betting tips: William Zepeda v Maxi Hughes and Liam Davies v Erik Robles Ayala
Chris Oliver previews the weekend's big fights including William Zepeda v Maxi Hughes in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday March 16
1pt William Zepeda to win in rounds 1-6 at 5/2 (bet365)
1pt Liam Davies to win by decision at 17/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
If you ever need an example of how unfair boxing can be, then just look at Maxi Hughes and his trip to America last year.
After years on the small hall circuit, Hughes (26-6) turned his career around with a string of victories against the odds and the Yorkshireman got his reward for those seven straight wins with a fight against former undisputed lightweight champion George Kambosos Jr in Oklahoma.
After a brilliant display of counterpunching on the backfoot, Hughes looked to have done more than enough to earn a shock victory on the scorecards, only for the judges to see it a different way and award Kambosos a majority decision.
Hughes gets another big opportunity in the US in the early hours of Sunday morning (live on DAZN) against William Zepeda, but
Zepeda doesn’t have the name value of Kambosos but is arguably much more dangerous right now, as the Mexican has left a trail of destruction on his way to a perfect 29-0 (25 early) record and he is quickly closing in on a world title shot.
Following his breakthrough success over former champion ‘Jo Jo’ Diaz via a lopsided decision, Zepeda dispatched Jaime Arboleda (KO2) and Mercito Gesta (KO6) with ease in his two outings last year and is a red-hot 1/8 favourite (as short as 1/16) to continue his winning streak. Hughes has made a habit of upsetting the odds in recent years, but he’s a 15/2 underdog here and it could be a case of ‘wrong place, wrong time’ for the visitor.
Kambosos looked like a man still feeling the psychological effects of twice being easily outboxed by the brilliant Devin Haney when he faced Hughes last summer and, in a far cry from his usual high-octane approach, the Australian was hesitant throughout. The excellent footwork and perfectly-timed counters of Hughes also had a lot to with Kambosos being reduced to single-punch attacks, but Hughes faces a very different opponent this weekend.
Zepeda is an aggressive, pressure-punching southpaw who is huge for the weight and he has the power to match his high-volume approach. Working behind a sharp jab, which he mixes up well to head and body, the Mexican is constantly on the front foot and can do serious damage when getting into range.
As tricky and clever as fellow left-hander Hughes is, my fear for the UK fighter is that he may not have the pop on his shots to deter the swarming attacks of Zepeda and it will be hard for the underdog to successfully play the counter punching role against a man who throws in such high numbers.
Zepeda is 1/3 to get another stoppage and, given Hughes’ awkwardness, those looking to boost the odds will most probably be eyeing the 11/8 for that to come in the second half of the fight. However, I think the value here could be for the favourite to halt Hughes in rounds 1-6 at a tasty 5/2.
Although he is a better fighter now, Hughes has been stopped twice before and I rate Zepeda highly. The Mexican hits hard and his relentless, two-fisted attacks could prove too much for the visitor earlier than many people think.
Zepeda is an offensive whirlwind and, at 34 years old, Hughes may not be able to weather this storm.
CLICK HERE to back Zepeda in rounds 1-6 with Sky Bet
Earlier in the night on TNT Sports, Frank Warren stages the latest version of one of his ‘Magnificent Seven’ shows in Birmingham.
Fresh from a stunning victory over Denzel Bentley, Nathan Heaney (18-0) defends his newly-acquired British middleweight title against Brad Pauls, and his noisy army of fans will be out in force after making the short trip down from Stoke.
Pauls’ sole defeat came on the scorecards when challenging Tyler Denny for the English title 13 months ago and, with Heany not noted for his power, a similar outcome beckons here. However, Heaney by decision is priced accordingly at 8/13.
Joe Joyce has his first outing since back-to-back stoppage losses to Zhilei Zhang and should have little to fear from Kash Ali (21-2), while Zach Parker can successfully continue on the comeback trail against Tyron Zeuge.
Davies to star in fight of the night
Dennis McCann (1/3) and Brad Strand (10/3) put their unbeaten records on the line in a fascinating clash for the vacant British super bantamweight title and that may be closer than the odds suggest, but the fight of the night looks to be Liam Davies against Erik Robles Ayala at the same weight.
Davies (15-0) has really kicked on since outpointing Marc Leach in 2022, following that up with another good decision victory over Ionut Baluta before impressive stoppage wins over Jason Cunningham (TKO1) and Vincenzo La Femina (TKO5).
He’s a 4/9 chance to beat Ayala, who won’t be put off by his odds of 9/4 after he defied the odds when last in the UK to beat Lee McGregor in July 2023.
Ayala (15-1) didn’t let McGregor breathe that night and was on him constantly as he claimed a unanimous decision. We can expect more of the same from the Mexican again and this should be all action from the first bell.
Davies has always been a tidy boxer with a good, long jab, but the 27-year-old seems to be developing his power now and he will need it to earn the respect of the visitor here.
This is a tough test for Davies but it is one I think he can pass. He proved he can outbox an aggressive puncher against Baluta and the Telford man is fancied to repeat the dose this weekend. I wouldn’t rule out a late stoppage for Davis (3/1 for rounds 7-12), but it looks more likely to go the distance and I will be siding with Davies to win a decision at 17/10.
CLICK HERE to back Davies by decision with Sky Bet
Posted at 1200 GMT on 15/03/24
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