Chris Oliver expects both Dalton Smith and Josh Warrington to justify favouritism on Saturday – but in very different ways.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday night DAZN card
3pts Dalton Smith to win in rounds 1-6 at 13/10 (bet365)
1pt Josh Warrington to win by decision at 11/10 (General)
DALTON SMITH is firmly on course for a world title shot later this year, but his journey has one more stop first against Mathieu Germain in Sheffield on Saturday night.
Smith is now the mandatory challenger for the WBC super lightweight strap but with Alberto Puello only winning that belt last month, Smith needs a 'keep busy' fight and Germain appears to fit the bill perfectly.
With a record of 26-2 and having never fought outside of his native Canada, Germain isn't the kind of name Smith's fans wanted next and that is why this takes place at the Park Community Arena, rather than the much bigger Sheffield Arena.
On the same day that the World Snooker Championship kicks off at the Crucible just down the road, this looks a straightforward 'pot' for Smith, who is a best price of 1/8 and as short as 1/25.
There has always been plenty of hype surrounding the local fighter, but it was Smith's fifth-round stoppage of three-time world title challenger Jose Zapeda in March last year that really made people sit up and take notice. In his signature victory to date, the Yorkshireman took Zapeda out with a beautiful body shot and nobody had done a number on the American like that before.
After a frustrating 10 months on the sidelines, Smith showed no signs of ring rust when returning to stop Wallid Ouizza in the first round of their European title clash at Nottingham in January, and the 28-year-old is turned out again quickly in a bid to keep that momentum going.
An 11/1 chance here, Germain arrives on an eight-fight winning streak, but his level of opposition has been a long way below what he faces here and the step up in class looks a big one. Having to travel for the first time in his career isn't ideal either, especially at 35 years old, and this is also his first scheduled 12-rounder.
The visitor's two defeats were back in 2019 and 2020, but both came via stoppage, in the fifth and seventh rounds respectively, and he will do very well to hear the final bell here. Prohibitive odds of 1/4 about Smith registering the 14th knockout of his career look fully justified, and I fancy the favourite to get the job done before halfway at 13/10.
With only 11 of his 26 wins coming early, Germain doesn't appear to have the power to trouble Smith and the latter could be very hard to keep off if he doesn't fear what is coming back. That was certainly the case last time out against Ouizza, who looked out of his depth very early on and had nothing in his arsenal to deter Smith.
The speed difference was evident from the first bell that night and it could be a similar story this weekend. As well as his quick hands, Smith is also very accurate with excellent timing, and he wastes very little. I have already highlighted his good body work, and his power seems to be really developing now, which spells trouble for Germain.
Germain looks in over his head here and this should be another showcase of Smith's talents, before he moves on to the serious stuff of a world title bid.
Easy decision?
One Yorkshireman who has already done it at world level is JOSH WARRINGTON, who aims to find out what he has left against Asad Asif Khan.
Once the number one featherweight in the world and a two-time champion at 126lb, Warrington (31-4-1) was losing for the third time in a row when widely outpointed by Anthony Cacace in September and appeared to signal his retirement when laying his gloves in the centre of the ring afterwards. Those defeats have all come in world title contests, but he certainly isn't the fighter he once was, and the miles are racking up now.
However, the 34-year-old says the fire still burns and he is given a relatively easy test by his standards against Khan (19-6-1), who went the eight-round distance against another high-profile veteran in Michael Conlan early last month.
Khan never looked like winning that contest but also never looked like being stopped and he gave a good account of himself. So, while I'm not expected him to pull off a 16/1 shock here, the 31-year-old from India could give Warrington more resistance than the latter's odds of 1/16 would suggest.
It's 4/5 for Warrington to win inside the distance but with only eight early victories on his CV, he has never been noted for stoppages and is clearly coming down the other side of the mountain now.
A peak Warrington would have made very light work of Khan, but this is a different version of 'The Leeds Warrior' and, with that in mind, I prefer the 11/10 about him winning by decision.
Posted at 1140 BST on 18/04/25
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