Boxing expert Chris Oliver kicks off 2026 with a preview of two big title fights this weekend, one of them featuring Britain's Dalton Smith.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday DAZN card
2pts Agit Kabayel to win in rounds 1-6 at 13/5 (William Hill)
1pt Dalton Smith to win by decision at 16/5 (Unibet)
Queensberry Promotions kick off their year with a show in Germany on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
AGIT KABAYEL defends his WBC interim heavyweight title as he makes his homecoming against Damian Knyba at Oberhausen’s Rudolf Webber Arena.
Since the retirement of the Klitschkos, who were based there, German boxing has been crying out for someone to fly the flag, and they may have found their man in Kabayel.
Unbeaten in 26 outings with 18 knockouts, the man from Bochum burst onto the world scene with three big wins as the underdog in a tremendous 14-month period in Riyadh.
First up was the unbeaten Arslanbek Makhmudov and the Russian giant was chopped down in four rounds by the excellent body work of Kabayel, who then repeated the dose with a seventh-round knockout of the previously unbeaten Frank Sanchez.
Then came his biggest win to date, when Kabayel took on the heavy-hitting Zhilei Zhang last February and downed the Chinese southpaw.
Although dangerous tactics against someone as powerful as Zhang, the German set a high pace and went to work on the favourite. He was well on top when dropped in the fifth round, but Kabayel bounced right back to stop his man in the sixth with some sickening body shots.
That victory summed up what Kabayel is all about, as he has a high work-rate for a big man and few heavyweights can live with that pace, while he targets the body very effectively, which takes further fuel from the petrol tank of his opponents.
Kabayel is a red-hot 1/12 favourite to make a successful return to Germany and that highlights the task at hand for Knyba, who can be backed at 10/1.
Knyba is unbeaten in 17 outings, with 11 early wins to his name, and he has stopped his last four opponents. However, beating the likes of Marcin Siwy (RTD8) and journeyman Joey Dawejko (KO7) is not on the same level as the task that awaits him this weekend.
The Pole is used to mixing in much easier company and could be in for a rude awakening. He has all the physical attributes, standing at 6’7” with a huge 86” each, but his skillset doesn’t compare to that of his opponent here and he is competing in his first scheduled 12-rounder.
A red-hot Kabayel has got himself within reach of a world title shot now and I don’t see him throwing that all away against Knyba, especially in front of his home fans.
2/5 is the best you can get about Kabayel winning inside the distance, which is something I think he will do and I believe he can get the job done in the first half of the fight, which is available at a tasty 13/5.
It may take him a round or two to work his way past the long one-two of the challenger, but his non-stop pressure can quickly start to have an effect on Knyba, and the latter may struggle to keep the champion off.
The long torso of Knyba should be perfect for Kabayel to sink his body shots into and that could be how he ends this one, somewhere before the halfway mark.
Smith well-suited to tough assignment
In the early hours of Sunday morning, Britain could have a new world champion as DALTON SMITH challenges Subriel Matias for the latter’s WBC super lightweight title at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Before I get on to who I think will win, it has to be noted that this fight should not even be taking place due to Matias failing a drug test for Ostarine, with both his A and B samples coming back positive.
However, the WBC responded by saying the levels in his system did not breach the threshold set by the New York Athletic State Commission and not only was he able to keep his title, but he is also allowed to defend it this weekend.
Matias has been subject to strict testing since but that isn’t the point, which is that he could potentially have an unfair advantage this weekend. So, for more reasons that just patriotism, I hope that Smith wins the belt – and I think he can.
A 4/6 shot, Matias (23-2) is a huge puncher with 22 of his 23 victories coming by stoppage and he is 2/1 to make that 23 early wins here, which is very possible. He ploughs forward relentlessly, looking to land the heavy stuff and when he does, it doesn’t usually end well for his opponents.
However, he can be outboxed – as we have seen on three occasions. That was the case in his first defeat against Petros Ananyan (UD) in 2020 and when he lost the IBF strap at home in Puerto Rico to Liam Paro (UD) in 2024, but also when he claimed this belt last time out.
Alberto Puello appeared to have done enough to get the nod from the judges, only for two scorecards to come back in favour of Matias and he became a two-time champion.
The blueprint is there, though, and that is to utilise a good jab and slick footwork to confuse the technically limited Matias, and they are two qualities that Smith possesses.
Unbeaten in 18 outings, Smith has served his apprenticeship and now looks ready for the world stage. His fifth-round stoppage of the durable Jose Zepeda made people sit up and take notice in 2024, while he boxed a similar fight to what is needed here when widely outpointing Matthieu Germain over 12 rounds last time out.
Accurate and patient, Smith doesn’t waste much and he has shown the discipline needed to carry out the tactics needed to outpoint Matias. He won’t want to be engaging too much with the champion, but he will have to get his respect at some point and Smith hits with enough authority to do so.
Smith is fighting outside of the UK for the first time, but he boxed all over the world as an amateur and he appears to have the required temperament to carry out a job on foreign soil.
I hope it’s not a case of my heart ruling my head, but I think Smith has the tools to be crowned champion and pick up a decision at 16/5.
Posted at 14:15 GMT on 09/01/26
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