Qatar’s 80,000-capacity Lusail Stadium provides the backdrop for Argentina’s World Cup opening game against Saudi Arabia. James Cantrill previews the game picking out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Argentina v Saudi Arabia
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 7/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
0.5pts No first Goalscorer at 20/1 (bet365)
This tournament provides a last-dance opportunity for Argentina’s all time leading scorer Lionel Messi.
La Albiceleste endured a disastrous stint from the 2014 World Cup to the one in Russia, losing three consecutive finals.
Mario Gotze broke their hearts on the world stage in Brazil, which was followed by consecutive Copa America defeats in 2015 and 2016, both at the hands of Chile.
An ultimately poor showing in the 2018 World Cup from Messi led to toxic scrutiny from his compatriots with patience running out.
Fast forward to Qatar 2022 and Argentina come into this competition as the inform team, their 35 game unbeaten run stretching back to 2019 with Copa America and Finalissima silverware avenging the disappointments of 14, 15 and 16.
The catalyst for Messi’s redemption has to be the appointment of Lionel Scaloni.
Scaloni was Jorge Sampaoli’s assistant in Russia, replacing his predecessor at the helm despite more experienced interest from elsewhere.
Scaloni’s close relationship with Messi was a major factor in his appointment and proved to be a master stroke as the new supremo has been instrumental in PSG’s chief creators resurgence for his nation.
Like most of La Albiceleste’s sides, Scaloni’s system is built around Messi, however, the key difference with this 4-3-1-2 is that the midfield works for him, allowing him total freedom to drift in and out of games without too many repercussions.
Pre-Scaloni, Messi’s offensive output for Argentina was outrageous, boasting an G+A p90 of 0.89.
But in this new system, somehow, Scaloni has squeezed more out of him with his G+A average rising to 0.97.
Argentina are not as indestructible as their three year unbeaten run suggests though, their major vulnerability lies in the space they leave out wide.
They look to dominate possession, squeezing opponents back into their own half while playing with a high defensive line.
Attacking fullbacks, often found with chalk on their boots deep into enemy territory, play a pivotal role in this.
This approach leaves their centre backs, often Nicolás Otamendi and Cristian Romero isolated on the counter attack.
Saudi Arabia will draw inspiration from Colombia’s performance in the Copa America quarter-final as Luis Diaz exposed this running Nahuel Molina ragged before grabbing the equaliser.
Expectations are high for Argentina and as their ever shortening price highlights, punters also fancy Scaloni’s side.
Their tactical vulnerability, coupled with this pressure makes me think the Green Falcons have more of a chance then their 20/1 odds suggest.
The Saudi’s have become a resolute unit under Hervé Renard with their games usually settled on the finest of margins.
Backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS at a hefty price appeals here as only one of their last 17 matches has failed to see under 2.5 goals click, with this bet landed in each of their last 14 games on the spin, including clashes with Croatia, USA, Ecuador, Columbia and Japan.
Sticking along similar lines, I also think siding with a stalemate is worth a punt and opting for NO FIRST GOALSCORER, instead of 0-0 correct score, covers us if the only goal of the game is an own goal.
The deadlock has failed to be broken in half of Saudi Arabia’s six games since September and this bet would have also clicked in 30% of Argentina’s WCQ fixtures.
The sweltering desert heat must also be considered, even with the AM kick-off it will surely have an impact on the tempo of this clash, as will the drinks breaks an increased amount of substitutions.
Argentina v Saudi Arabia best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 7/5 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
- 0.5pts No first Goalscorer at 20/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Argentina 0-0 Saudi Arabia (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (18/11/22)
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