Sporting Life
James Wade and Luke Humphries (Picture: Jonas Hunold/PDC Europe)
James Wade and Luke Humphries (Picture: Jonas Hunold/PDC Europe)

Grand Slam of Darts 2023: Finals day predictions, betting tips, acca, order of play and TV time

By Carl Fletcher
Darts
Sun November 19, 2023 · 2y ago

The 2023 Grand Slam of Darts concludes today so check out Carl Fletcher's match-by-match predictions, best bets and a suggested acca.

Darts betting tips: Grand Slam of Darts finals day

2pts Luke Humphries to win the title at 10/11 (General)

2pts Luke Humphries to be leading after 10 legs vs James Wade at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

1pt Stephen Bunting 1+ Bull Finish at 7/4 (bet365)

1pt Cross to win the match and Bunting Most 180’s at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

SL Double: Humphries (-4.5) and Cross both to win at 5/2 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Afternoon Session (1300 GMT)

  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports
  • Format: Semi-finals, best of 31 legs

Luke Humphries (1/4) vs James Wade (11/4)

TOURNAMENT STATS (2023 season stats in brackets. Checkout % is stage events only)

  • Average: 103.28 – 93.60 (98.37 – 94.71)
  • 180’s Per Leg: 0.44 – 0.15 (0.33 – 0.21)
  • Checkout %: 47.13% - 51.28% (41.59% - 42.89%)
  • 100+ Checkout Per Leg Won: 9.76% - 12.50% (10.62% - 13.62%)
  • Match Treble %: 60% - 20% (26.75% - 19.01%)

Five matches played in this years Grand Slam of Darts for Luke Humphries and it’s five wins, five hundred plus averages and two defeats of the in-form Gary Anderson.

His second victory over the ‘Flying Scotsman’, 16-14 in the Quarter-Final was particularly impressive as he was hit with a barrage of high scoring and big finishes from his opponent, he even trailed 14-13 but he showed just what a player he’s developed in to over the past couple of years by believing in himself and rattling off three successive legs to emerge triumphant.

His opponent James Wade was a tad fortunate to emerge victorious in his last leg win of Josh Rock in the Quarter-Final, surviving multiple match darts before nailing a difficult Double 3 for a break of throw and the match in the 31st and final leg. You’ll really struggle to name a better finisher when under immense pressure on the outer ring than ‘The Machine’

Take nothing away from the victory of Wade as he actually led for much of the match despite being outscored for the majority of it by his young Northern Irish opponent. That’s nothing new for him however, he’s won 19 of his matches in 2023 with the lower average or to put it another way just over 20% of his victories this year. During this event alone he’s averaged less than his opponent in four of his five matches yet has still picked up victories against Chris Dobey and Michael Smith too. You’d expect a similar scenario will beckon here as ‘Cool Hand’ has a scoring average of 111.78 compared to the 100.03 of Wade.

What he lacks in scoring however, Wade more than makes up for it with his finishing. Overall, for the event his doubles percentage is 51.28%. He particularly likes to go the 20’s route and his go to doubles have been very much on point this week. On Double 20 he’s 51.6%, if that fails he’s 54.5% on Double 10 and if he needs to rescue the situation on Double 5, he can do that too, as he’s 57.1% on that particular segment.

He's particularly good on combination finishes too. If you look at his record on checkouts between 61-110 during the event, he’s completed 13 of 26 possible attempts, exactly 50%. No wonder he’s won 40 of the 44 legs in which he’s had a dart at the double in the event, which is the best of the remaining four and slightly better than that of Humphries who’s won 41 of the 47 in legs which he’s been afforded the opportunity at the double.

Luke will need no reminder of just how much of a threat James is here. The pair met just three weeks ago in the Quarter Final of the European Championship, and it was Wade who won 10-6 with the higher average of the two as he hit 62.50% (10/16) of his doubles. This is one of only four defeats Humphries has suffered since the start of October, the others being losses against Gerwyn Price, Peter Wright and Raymond Van Barneveld.

That defeat to Wade came on the back of five straight victories for ‘Cool Hand’ against him, three of which have been in this calendar and the most recent to this was a 6-0 whitewash as Luke averaged 111.33, twenty points higher than James.

There have also been two other significant clashes on TV. The first was back in 2021, the UK Open final, a match ‘The Machine’ won 11-5 and a first round Matchplay clash in the same year, this time Luke got his revenge with a 10-3 trouncing.

So, is it the power scoring Luke Humphries who prevails here? Or is it the battle-hardened, finishing extraordinaire and three-time runner-up James Wade? I have to favour the Humphries on the back of his major success in the World Grand Prix recently. He looks supremely confident, capable of switching it on when he needs to. Even Wade admitted he was fortunate but took his chances in the Quarters. There is a big disparity in their maximum prowess, Humphries has hit 29 of them in 66 legs and Wade 11 in 71. This could be pivotal in deciding the outcome, I think he’ll buy himself more opportunities throughout and whilst I expect James Wade to do James Wade things during the match, I believe these additional opportunities will be enough, especially when it comes to the latter stages of the match.

Score Prediction: 16-11

Stephen Bunting 6/5 vs Rob Cross (8/13)

TOURNAMENT STATS (2023 season stats in brackets. Checkout % is stage events only)

  • Average: 95.45 – 99.29 (95.75 – 96.35)
  • 180’s Per Leg: 0.32 – 0.22 (0.30 – 0.23)
  • Checkout %: 43.33% - 46.51% (38.09% - 42.13%)
  • 100+ Checkout Per Leg Won: 15.39% – 12.50% (11.19% - 13.40%)
  • Match Treble %: 20% - 20% (26.62% - 26.21%)

Stephen Bunting and Rob Cross meet in the second semi-final of the afternoon in what’s only the second time – the other being 2010 – the final four in the Grand Slam of Darts all represent the same nation, England.

Both these players have reached this stage following finishing second in their respective groups. Bunting lost 5-3 to Stowe Buntz in Group E despite averaging almost 7.5 points higher but he did exact his revenge by winning their quarter-final last night by way of a 16-8 victory. ‘The Bullet’ in fact has already played eight games in effect to reach this stage having coming through three matches in the qualifier to secure his qualification into this event in the first place.

It's been well touted for a while now that he’s playing some of the best darts of his career since upping the weight of his darts by 50% and it’s hard to argue otherwise. In his last 46 games, he’s registered a ton plus averages in 19 of them, which includes three averages more than 110 and a further four in excess of 105. He comes into this with 12 wins in his last 15 games.

During this period of vast improvement, he’s played in two TV tournaments, the World Grand Prix and European Championships but has been eliminated at the Last 16 stage despite being tipped for deep runs so this Semi-Final berth here will be seen as further solid improvement. Indeed, he looked very good last night in defeating his American opponent, averaging 96.79, registering 6 maximums and hitting 61.5% of his doubles.

Similarly, Rob Cross looked good last night as he dismantled Damon Heta 16-6, winning the last ten legs with the game finely poised at 6-6. He’s been very consistent throughout the event too, his lowest match average is 96.39 and his highest 103.97. His tournament average is 99.29. You’re sort of confident you know what you’re going to get with ‘Voltage’.

I’m sure Bunting knows what to expect too, they’ve met twelve times previously and he’s won three of them, they’ve drawn one, but it is Cross who’s won the majority with eight including their last two clashes and their sole meeting this year. Across these twelve matches they’ve played three times on TV, Cross winning twice and that draw in the Premier League. One of these victories for Cross was over a match of this length in the Quarter-Final of the 2019 World Matchplay. The score line on that day was 16-14. A good omen for him perhaps as he went on to lift that title too.

That was a close encounter and so was their only meeting this year where Cross prevailed 6-5 on the floor. All indications suggest that this will be close. Bunting has lost the lowest number of legs on his own throw of the final quartet, losing just six but Rob is averaging 100.87 for the event against the throw so that is going to be severely tested here.

I think Cross will just do enough here. He’s in good form. He’s won twelve of his fifteen matches in November, losing only to Dave Chisnall, Gian Van Veen and Michael Van Gerwen. He might have been disappointed with his early exits in the Grand Prix and European Championships but he’s done well in the TV events in general in 2023. Winner of both the two World Series of Darts events down under, Runner-Up in the Masters, Semi-Finalist in two further World Series of Darts events and Quarter-Finalist in the UK Open, World Cup of Darts and World Series of Darts Finals. The head to head record favours him and I think his consistency will get him over the line and into his maiden Grand Slam of Darts Final.

Keep an eye on however Bullseye checkouts in this one. Bunting has attempted this segment on seven occasions throughout the event so far this event, hitting it four times already.

Score Prediction: 14-16

Evening Session (1300 GMT)

  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports
  • Format: Final, best of 31 legs

Who lifts the trophy?

From reading the previews you can see that I favour the two higher ranked players to advance to the final, Luke Humphries and Rob Cross.

These two have clashed thirteen times and it’s extremely close. Cross has won seven, Humphries six. Luke has won their last two meetings and two of their three in 2023. They’ve met in four finals prior to this, although none over this length and it’s two-two. They’ve played three times on TV previously and it’s 2-1 to Humphries. Whichever way you break it down, you can make an argument for either player to win.

I’m opting for ‘Cool Hand’ to come out triumphant, however. He’s won their two lengthy encounters convincingly. He won their 2019 PDC World Championship clash 4-2 and he won their World Series of Darts Finals Quarter-Final meeting just two months emphatically 10-2.

On top of this the tournament stats suggest he’s the stronger player. He’s averaged 100+ in each match, the only undefeated player in the event, is hitting 180’s at a 0.44 per leg ratio and is the only player remaining with a positive leg correlation against the throw, winning 17 of the 32 he’s played heading into the Semi-Finals.

He’s a recent major winner, in the World Grand Prix, he’s won a collection of titles over the past two seasons and his match win percentage this year of 75.8% is the highest of all Tour Card holders.

Prediction: Luke Humphries to win the title.

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