Tennis tips: WTA Finals betting preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: WTA Finals

3pts Iga Swiatek to win the WTA Finals at 6/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

1pt Aryna Sabalenka to win the Nancy Richey Group at 3/1 (Betfred)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

WTA Finals

• Fort Worth, Texas, USA (indoor hard)

The top eight female players of 2022 gather in Texas this week for the season-ending WTA Finals.

Fort Worth is the latest home for this hobo of a tournament, one which is supposed to be taking place in Shenzhen, China, but isn’t due to a combination of the country’s COVID restrictions and the Shuai Peng affair.

It’s being played indoors at the Dickies Arena – a first-time venue for the tour and so we’ve got no ‘course form’ to go on.

Ahead of Monday’s start, conditions have been widely described as "slow" by the players with Aryna Sabalenka adding that the ball is staying low.

That’s in keeping with previous indoor editions of this event over the past decade. The WTA wouldn’t confirm the exact surface but I suspect it’s a Haro one, as previously used at the WTA Finals.

As for the ball, it’s the Wilson US Open Regular Duty being used – that’s the ball which caused controversy at this year’s US Open when Iga Swiatek was among those critical of its light weight, saying it was harder to control.

The Pole did win the title using it though and it was originally intended for use indoors.

In terms of tournament experience, we have four debutantes, while of the other four players none has gone beyond the semi-finals before.

Before we move on to look at each of those competitors, it’s also worth mentioning the format – it’s not the regular knockout bracket this week.

Instead the field is split into two groups of four and the top two in each will progress to the semi-finals.

It is therefore possible to win the title while losing two matches – something both Agnieszka Radwanska and Dominika Cibulkova managed in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Any way, hopefully that’s some useful info for you. Now it’s on to the players…

TRACY AUSTIN GROUP

Iga Swiatek

• Title odds: 6/4; To win group: 4/6
• Race position: 1st
• 2022 win-loss record: 64-8 (8 titles – French Open, US Open, Doha, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart, Rome, San Diego)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 12-1
• WTA Finals record: 1-2 (21 Gp)
• Recent form: W San Diego (bt Pegula, Gauff, Vekic), RU Ostrava (l Krejcikova), W US Open (bt Pegula, Sabalenka, Jabeur)
• Record v group opponents:

v Gauff – overall: 4-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard 2-0; 2022: 3-0
v Garcia – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2022: 0-1
v Kasatkina – overall: 4-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 3-0; 2022: 4-0

A fully deserved favourite. Swiatek has been the player of 2022, winning two Slams and eight titles in total. And it’s not just been about her trophies – it’s how she’s won them with huge margins of victory in so many matches. Against top-10 opponents, which is particularly relevant this week, she’s won her last 12, losing only two sets in the process. Perhaps the one question mark is over the indoor conditions – few WTA tournaments are held indoors so virtually everyone’s experience is limited. Swiatek has described them as “totally different” to those on show in San Diego, scene of her most recent title. She also spoke about the lighter Wilson ball which has irked her in the past, although she did win the US Open using it. However, that aside, Swiatek says she’s raring to after a couple of weeks off. “I felt really sore (after San Diego) but I feel more fresh right now and that’s all that matters because I’m able to give my all during matches.” That’s not good news for the rest of this field.

Coco Gauff

• Title odds: 7/1; To win group: 4/1
• Race position: 4th
• 2022 win-loss record: 38-19 (0 titles)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 3-8
• WTA Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: QF Guadalajara (l Azarenka), QF San Diego (l Swiatek), QF US Open (l Garcia)
• Record v group opponents:

v Swiatek – overall: 0-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-2; 2022: 0-3
v Garcia – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-1; 2022: 1-1
v Kasatkina – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1; 2022: 0-1

Has home advantage and spoke positively about the “slow” court at Saturday’s media day – “I like the court” – but has just two career titles, only one on hardcourts (back in 2019) and none this season. Has also tended to struggle against the elite, going 3-8 in 2022 versus top-10 ranked players. The teenager is not to be underestimated but two defeats before the semis in Guadalajara and San Diego are further evidence to suggest this is big task for Gauff.

Caroline Garcia

• Title odds: 10/1; To win group: 11/2
• Race position: 6th
• 2022 win-loss record: 41-19 (3 titles – Bad Homburg, Warsaw, Cincinnati)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 4-3
• WTA Finals record: 2-2 (17 SF)
• Recent form: L16 Guadalajara (l Stephens), L32 San Diego (l Collins), L16 Tokyo (l S Zhang), SF US Open (l Jabeur)
• Record v group opponents:

v Swiatek – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1; 2022: 1-0
v Gauff – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-2; 2022: 1-1
v Kasatkina – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-1; 2022: 0-0

Back in the WTA Finals five years after her debut, Garcia is the only player other than Swiatek to hold a winning record against top-10 opposition this season. She has achieved that with a brand of aggressive tennis which delivered titles on all three surfaces, including the 1000-level event in Cincinnati. Her title run in Warsaw saw Swiatek beaten – Garcia is the only player in Fort Worth to beat the world number one this season. However, things have not gone well of late. She arrives having lost four of her last five matches and, perhaps more significantly, her coach. Bernard Perret admitted there had “been problems” in the camp and walked just days before this tournament. I’m not sure that can be deemed a good thing for the player’s chances.

Daria Kasatkina

• Title odds: 20/1; To win group: 12/1
• Race position: 8th
• 2022 win-loss record: 40-20 (2 titles – San Jose, Granby)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 5-8
• WTA Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: L16 Guadalajara (l Kalinskaya), L16 San Diego (l Keys), L16 Ostrava (l Alexandrova), L128 US Open (l Dart)
• Record v group opponents:

v Swiatek – overall: 1-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-3; 2022: 0-4
v Gauff – overall: 2-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2022: 1-0
v Garcia – overall: 1-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2022: 0-0

Has struggled for form in the second half of the season and can perhaps count herself fortunate to have reached Fort Worth. She comes into the event having won just three of her last seven matches, the defeats all coming against lower-ranked opponents. Did show earlier in the campaign her ability to live with some of the best players in the world but flicking the switch back on is a difficult thing to do. Is qualifying the real achievement for the Russian?

NANCY RICHEY GROUP

Ons Jabeur

• Title odds: 13/2; To win group: 23/10
• Race position: 2nd
• 2022 win-loss record: 46-15 (2 titles – Madrid, Berlin)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 1-5
• WTA Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: QF Monastir (l Liu), RU US Open (bt Garcia, l Swiatek)
• Record v group opponents:

v Pegula – overall: 3-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-1; 2022: 2-0
v Sakkari – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 0-1; 2022: 1-0
v Sabalenka – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1 2022: 0-0

Jabeur has played only one tournament – at home in Tunisia – since reaching the US Open final so it’s hard to judge what she’ll bring to the table this week. She says she’s instead been “doing a small pre-season” to prepare for Fort Worth. What we do know is that Jabeur is yet to win any tournament at tour level on a hardcourt. Throw in a 1-5 record this season against top-10 players and you have to wonder whether she’s going to go all the way in this company.

Jessica Pegula

• Title odds: 6/1; To win group: 15/8
• Race position: 3rd
• 2022 win-loss record: 42-18 (1 title – Guadalajara)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 3-9
• WTA Finals record: Debut
• Recent form: W Guadalajara (bt Sakkari), SF San Diego (l Swiatek), QF US Open (l Swiatek)
• Record v group opponents:

v Jabeur – overall: 2-3; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-2; 2022: 0-2
v Sakkari – overall: 2-3; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-2; 2022: 2-1
v Sabalenka – overall: 1-3; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2022: 0-1

Having won the biggest title of her career in Guadalajara, Pegula should arrive her full of confidence – she’s only lost to Swiatek since leaving Cincinnati in August. But she’s got a losing record against all three group opponents and has managed to win just three of her 12 matches against top-10ers this season. Could be vulnerable against the bigger hitters, although the slow, low-bouncing conditions should help a player who can get the ball to skid through. Did beat group foe Sakkari in the final in Guadalajara.

Maria Sakkari

• Title odds: 14/1; To win group: 5/1
• Race position: 5th
• 2022 win-loss record: 37-22 (0 titles)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 1-5
• WTA Finals record: 2-2 (21 SF)
• Recent form: RU Guadalajara (l Pegula), L32 San Diego (l Vekic), L16 Ostrava (l Parks), RU Parma (l Sherif), L64 US Open (l X Wang)
• Record v group opponents:

v Jabeur – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 1-0; 2022: 0-1
v Pegula – overall: 3-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-2 2022: 1-2
v Sabalenka – overall: 2-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-4; 2022: 0-0

I still struggle to comprehend how Sakkari rose to third in the world rankings despite only winning one tour-level title. And that was on clay in 2019. I suppose it does show a level of consistency but even the player herself has been critical of her 2022 efforts in the lead-up to this event – “as bad as my season was after Indian Wells (in March), I still gave myself this chance to finish the year strong”. She’s lost more matches (22) this year than any player to have qualified for the WTA Finals. Given her 1-5 record against the top 10 this season, it’s not unfair to suggest the Greek is something of a flat-track bully, to use a cricketing term. I don’t see her winning this week.

Aryna Sabalenka

• Title odds: 8/1; To win group: 3/1
• Race position: 7th
• 2022 win-loss record: 30-20 (0 titles)
• 2022 win-loss record v top 10: 2-4
• WTA Finals record: 1-2 (21 Gp)
• Recent form: L32 Guadalajara (l Samsonova), QF San Diego (l Vekic), SF US Open (l Swiatek)
• Record v group opponents:

v Jabeur – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1; 2022: 0-0
v Pegula – overall: 3-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2022: 1-0
v Sakkari – overall: 4-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 4-2; 2022: 0-0

Sabalenka says it “feels like a miracle” for her to qualify for this tournament after a “challenging year” and perhaps that feeling of being an underdog can work in her favour. After all, she holds a winning record against all three group opponents. No-one in this field hits the ball harder and if she can keep the error count down, she’ll be a tough player to beat. She’s playing on her favourite surface here, although the sluggish courts may not be the best for her bid to produce more winners than unforced errors. She hasn’t won a title on a hardcourt this year and her tally of 30 match wins in the lowest in the field.

VERDICT

I’m not a regular favourite backer but I’m struggling to look beyond IGA SWIATEK here.

Since Ash Barty’s surprise retirement in March, Swiatek has regularly been head and shoulders above the rest, winning both the French and US Open titles.

Her downfall on the Wimbledon grass was predictable and perhaps that will put some off here – they are moving onto an indoor hardcourt which has the potential to cause problems.

• CLICK HERE to back Swiatek with Sky Bet

But Swiatek is an intelligent player, who has shown an ability to adapt to different conditions – just take a look at how she put the ball controversy to one side to win in New York.

Given they are using the same balls here, that should stand her in good stead and she’ll surely bring an aura of invincibility to Texas having lost only once to a top-10 player this season.

Yes, she’s a short price but 6/4 looks worth taking, particularly given she can afford an early slip-up.

In the other group, I’m prepared to take a punt on ARYNA SABALENKA to win it.

She only just scraped into the field and hasn’t enjoyed a particularly successful season, yet there are question marks over some of her rivals with Jessica Pegula looking a fairly cool favourite to finish top – her position in the market appears heavily based on her recent win in Guadalajara where conditions were very different.

Sabalenka has the power to hit through a slow court and, notably, has won more indoor hardcourt titles (three) than anyone else in their field.

Admittedly she’s not done a great deal since reaching the US Open semis but she’s experienced, has played in this event in the past and holds a winning head-to-head record over all three group foes.

She certainly has the potential to win this group at a tasty 3/1 and a small bet is advised.

Published at 2105 GMT on 30/10/22

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