The Nitto ATP Finals gets under way on Sunday – Andy Schooler previews the opening day’s matches and brings you his best bets.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals daily tips
1.5pts Alex Zverev to beat Rafael Jodar 2-0 at 23/20 (William Hill)
1pt first-set tie-break in Ben Shelton v Arthur Fils at 7/4 (bet365)
Alex Zverev v Rafael Jodar (1300 GMT)
Jodar’s rise from outside the top 150 to inside the top 10 this season has been sensational but I feel he may be a little out of his depth this week.
The Spaniard is just 2-5 against top-10 players this season and he has little experience of slick indoor conditions which will be found in Turin.
Based on previous years, I suspect the court will be a little too quick for his liking, whereas it will suit Zverev with his big first serve, a shot which has helped him win the title in this arena in the past.
Zverev hasn’t been at his best since the US Open, unsurprisingly looking a little fatigued at times – he has played more matches this season than any other player.
Yet he’s still been there or thereabouts most weeks, making semi-finals in both Shanghai and Vienna, losing narrowly on both occasions.
He beat Jodar in straight sets in their only previous meeting (at Roland Garros earlier this year) and a repeat here seems likely.
Jodar has suffered early defeats indoors in recent weeks, losing to Casper Ruud in Paris and Valentin Vacherot in Basel. Neither is a disgraceful result but the fact is all his group opponents this week are better.
I’d also be a little concerned about this being his debut at the ATP’s signature event – he produced a woeful display in the US Open when losing to Yunchaokete Bu, one he later blamed, to some extent, on nerves and the big occasion.
All things considered, I’d expect Zverev to win this with something to spare so a straight-sets win at odds-against looks a decent bet.
Ben Shelton v Arthur Fils (1930 GMT)
I make this the key match in the John McEnroe Group with the winner likely to progress to the semi-finals. It’s therefore important that both hit the ground running.
Shelton should arrive in better mood mentally – his last outing was the final of the Paris Masters where his big serve worked well in quick conditions. That bodes well for the move across the border to Turin where he played last year but failed to win a match.
Fils, who will be making his debut in the ATP Finals, hasn’t been at his best of late, winning only six of his last 11 matches.
The reason he’s here is his early-season form when he was on a real roll. The Frenchman also won in Cincinnati in the summer but hasn’t done a great deal since, beating just one top-30 opponent in the ensuing period.
The head-to-head is 2-1 in Shelton’s favour but add the indoor hard filter and he’s up 2-0, winning both matches in straight sets. Fils has failed to create a break point in either encounter.
I expect the American to win but with an outright bet already in place on him making the last four, preference here is to lean to the sub-markets where a tie-break bet makes appeal.
Those head-to-head stats show these two have played seven sets and four have gone the distance.
Meanwhile, since the current indoor swing began, Fils has played seven matches with a tie-break in five of them. One of the ‘misses’ ended prematurely too. For Shelton, it’s four of seven that have featured a breaker.
In a crucial match, focus will surely be on holding serve in the early stages and, with that in mind, a first-set tie-break is worth backing at 7/4.
Posted at 16:25 GMT on 14/11/26
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