Andy Schooler bring you his player-by-player guide to the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin – and his best bets.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Daniil Medvedev at 11/1 (Betfred 1/3, 1-2)
2.5pts Ben Shelton to qualify for the semi-finals at 4/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Nitto ATP Finals
- Turin, Italy (indoor hard)
The world’s best players gather in Turin this week for the season-ending ATP Finals.
This is the sixth straight year that the Italian city will have staged this showpiece event, one which begins with round-robin play – two groups of four with the top two in each pool progressing to Saturday’s semi-finals.
In the absence of the injured defending champion Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz is the hot favourite – he’s odds-on across the board.
He won’t be finishing as year-end number one though – Alex Zverev has already locked up that honour with a mid-season injury to Alcaraz having seen him miss two of the Grand Slam tournaments (and the chance to win bucketloads of ranking points).
A tournament which is usually played in pretty slick court conditions, this year’s edition has something of a ‘new-era’ feel to it with no fewer than four debutants.
History shows this is an event rarely won at the first attempt – only two debutants have won the title this century (and none since it moved to Turin). They are Grigor Dimitrov in 2017 and Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2019. I backed both on these pages!
Do I rate any of this year’s ‘freshers’? Here’s my player-by-player guide…
JOHN McENROE GROUP
Alex Zverev
- Best odds – Title: 9/2; Group: 11/8; Qualify: 2/5
- Race position: 1st
- 2026 win-loss record: 65-18
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 3-9
- 2026 titles: 2 – US Open, French Open
- ATP Finals record: 18-12 (25 Gp, 24 SF, 23 Gp, 21 W, 20 Gp, 19 SF, 18 W, 17 Gp)
- Recent form: L32 Paris, SF Vienna, SF Shanghai, QF Beijing
- Record v group opponents:
Shelton – overall: 6-0; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 4-0; 2026: 1-0
Fils – overall: 5-2; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 2-1; 2026: 1-0
Jodar – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2026: 1-0
It must be pretty rare for a year-end world number one to win only two titles in a season but that’s what could well happen in 2026. Of course, Zverev’s double came at Grand Slam level, finally ending his major drought, and he could add a third crown in Turin over the next week. However, several factors say he is up against it. Having played 83 matches already in 2026 – the most in this field – he has shown some signs of fatigue in recent weeks. Not taking time off after his US Open success may have been a bad move. Zverev’s record against top-10 players is certainly a concern for potential backers, although four of his losses came against Jannik Sinner, who will be absent from this event. Did win here in 2021 but looks worth taking on this time around.
Ben Shelton
- Best odds – Title: 9/1; Group: 13/5; Qualify: 4/5
- Race position: 4th
- 2026 win-loss record: 45-19
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 3-4
- 2026 titles: 4 – Montreal, Stuttgart, Munich, Dallas
- ATP Finals record: 0-3 (25 Gp)
- Recent form: RU Paris, L16 Basel, L32 Shanghai
- Record v group opponents:
Zverev – overall: 0-6; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 0-4; 2026: 0-1
Fils – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 2-0; all hard: 2-1; 2026: 0-0
Jodar – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2026: 0-0
Shelton arrives in good shape having reached the Paris Masters final only last weekend. The slick courts of Paris certainly helped but he will likely get a boost from conditions in Turin too – the GreenSet surface has been pretty fast over the years here, while there is a little altitude to help the balls fizz through the air that bit better. Was a bit out of his depth on debut at this event last season but has certainly improved his game in the last 12 months. He will bid to continue that improvement under new coach Juan Carlos Ferrero – the Spaniard will be in attendance this week. Shelton’s big serve is a serious weapon, although returning could be a problem in fast conditions.
Arthur Fils
- Best odds – Title: 14/1; Group: 9/2; Qualify: 5/4
- Race position: 7th
- 2026 win-loss record: 39-16
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 5-5
- 2026 titles: 2 – Cincinnati, Barcelona
- ATP Finals record: Debut
- Recent form: L16 Paris, QF Basel, SF Brussels, L32 Shanghai, QF Tokyo
- Record v group opponents:
Zverev – overall: 2-5; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 1-2; 2026: 0-1
Shelton – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-2; all hard: 1-2; 2026: 0-0
Jodar – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-2; all hard: 0-0; 2026: 1-2
Fils started the year in fine fashion but he’s not hit the heights so often following a mid-season injury which forced him to miss the French Open. Recent form is not the best, although one of Fils’ two 2026 titles came in Cincinnati, where it plays pretty quick. Holds a losing record against all three group opponents which isn’t great news for those looking to get with the talented Frenchman.
Rafael Jodar
- Best odds – Title: 14/1; Group: 9/2; Qualify: 11/8
- Race position: 9th
- 2026 win-loss record: 45-19
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 2-5
- 2026 titles: 1 - Marrakech
- ATP Finals record: Debut
- Recent form: L32 Paris, L16 Basel, RU Shanghai, L32 Tokyo
- Record v group opponents:
Zverev – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2026: 0-1
Shelton – overall: 0-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2026: 0-0
Fils – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-0; 2026: 2-1
Jodar is arguably the story of the season – he had played just three tour-level matches before the year began and now he’s part of the world’s top 10. However, his record against his fellow elite is not good and this is an environment where he could well be found wanting on that front again. The Spaniard did make the Shanghai Masters final last month but his indoor experience is limited and his form in the past few weeks with a roof over his head isn’t great.
IVAN LENDL GROUP
Carlos Alcaraz
- Best odds – Title: 10/11; Group: 4/9; Qualify: 1/33
- Race position: 3rd
- 2026 win-loss record: 42-5
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 7-2
- 2026 titles: 5 – Australian Open, Paris, Vienna, Tokyo, Doha
- ATP Finals record: 7-5 (25 RU, 24 Gp, 23 SF)
- Recent form: W Paris, W Vienna, L32 Shanghai, W Tokyo
- Record v group opponents:
Medvedev – overall: 7-3; indoor hard: 2-0; all hard: 5-2; 2026: 1-1
Cobolli – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2026: 0-0
Tiafoe – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-0; 2026: 0-0
Alcaraz is a worthy title favourite with his 42-5 win-loss record for the season outstanding, as is his 7-2 record against top-10 opponents. One of his two such losses was against Jannik Sinner; the other came in a final-set tie-break against Ben Shelton at the US Open, which was his first tournament back after four months out with a wrist injury. A player with all the shots, he’s picked up since then and, significantly, has managed to make a big breakthrough indoors, winning two such titles in recent weeks, including the Paris Masters. Probably didn’t have to play his very best to win in the French capital but it does set himself up nicely to challenge in Turin, where he was the runner-up last season. The worry would be he’s being practising with tape supporting his knee, while Friday’s practice session was cut short due to a stomach complaint.
Daniil Medvedev
- Best odds – Title: 11/1; Group: 7/2; Qualify: 4/9
- Race position: 5th
- 2026 win-loss record: 52-20
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 2-3
- 2026 titles: 4 – Almaty, Hangzhou, Dubai, Brisbane
- ATP Finals record: 12-11 (24 Gp, 23 SF, 22 Gp, 21 RU, 20 W, 19 Gp)
- Recent form: L32 Paris, SF Vienna, W Almaty, SF Shanghai, SF Beijing, W Hangzhou
- Record v group opponents:
Alcaraz – overall: 3-7; indoor hard: 0-2; all hard: 2-5; 2026: 1-1
Cobolli – overall: 2-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 2-0; 2026: 0-1
Tiafoe – overall: 6-2; indoor hard: 0-1; all hard: 6-2; 2026: 1-1
Medvedev has played a lot of tennis recently, taking on a full schedule since the start of the Asian swing in September with no real rest. That could work one of two ways in Turin where Medvedev was runner-up in 2021. Loves the hardcourts and also enjoys faster conditions so he should be well suited to this week. Has a great ability to turn defence into attack and should not be underestimated.
Flavio Cobolli
- Best odds – Title: 50/1; Group: 14/1; Qualify: 7/2
- Race position: 6th
- 2026 win-loss record: 36-24
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 4-3
- 2026 titles: 1 - Acapulco
- ATP Finals record: Debut
- Recent form: L16 Vienna, SF Lyon, L64 Shanghai, L32 Beijing
- Record v group opponents:
Alcaraz – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-0; 2026: 0-0
Medvedev – overall: 1-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-2; 2026: 1-0
Tiafoe – overall: 1-4; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 1-3; 2026: 1-2
In the absence of Jannik Sinner, Cobolli will have all the home crowd support in Turin but it’s hard to be enthusiastic about his chances. With a 36-24 win-loss record and a negative points tally for the season (he’s lost more points that he’s won), you wonder how the Italian managed to qualify. Recent form is also poor – Cobolli is currently on a 3-5 run and the last of those matches saw him withdraw injured (leg muscle strain) in Vienna. He subsequently missed Paris and will arrive under something of an injury cloud. Also holds a losing record against all of his group opponents. Home support can only carry you so far…
Frances Tiafoe
- Best odds – Title: 25/1; Group: 12/1; Qualify: 3/1
- Race position: 8th
- 2026 win-loss record: 44-21
- 2026 win-loss record v top 10: 5-5
- 2026 titles: 1 - Halle
- ATP Finals record: Debut
- Recent form: L32 Paris, L32 Vienna, L32 Shanghai, L16 Tokyo
- Record v group opponents:
Alcaraz – overall: 0-2; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 0-1; 2026: 0-0
Medvedev – overall: 2-6; indoor hard: 1-0; all hard: 2-6; 2026: 1-1
Cobolli – overall: 4-1; indoor hard: 0-0; all hard: 3-1; 2026: 2-1
Tiafoe is another who has struggled in the latter part of the season. He’s gone just 2-4 since his run to the US Open semi-finals, not that it’s a surprise. Tiafoe has spoken before about how he’s struggled to find the same levels of motivation once the vibrant US Open is done. Has gone 5-5 against top-10 players this season, which isn’t bad, although it should be noted three of those wins came in the same week when he claimed his sole title in Halle.
VERDICT
In the past few weeks, Carlos Alcaraz has proved he has what it takes to win indoors – he had a pretty poor record prior to the current swing.
He should win this, if he’s fully fit and able to play his best.
The ‘if’ is the concerning word in that sentence though following a warm-up period in which he’s shown signs of a knee issue and a possible illness.
With those looming clouds and the Spaniard being odds-on across the board, I think it makes sense to look elsewhere.
Alex Zverev is the second favourite but while he’s going to end the year as world number one, the German has shown signs of late-season fatigue. The fact that he’s won just two tournaments all year is also a bit off-putting.
While he’s been a regular at the business end of events, Zverev has lost in the semi-finals a bit too often for my liking. A repeat here would not surprise me.
I’m not convinced by any of the debutants – Flavio Cobolli and Frances Tiafoe haven’t been in any sort of form and will struggle in the Lendl group.
I’m not sure Rafael Jodar is ready to challenge the big boys in conditions that don’t really suit, so I’d make Arthur Fils the most likely to be a contender.
However, I think he’ll likely miss out in the McEnroe group where I believe BEN SHELTON is a good price to reach the semi-finals.
The American is in good form having just reached the final of the Paris Masters, while he should benefit from having played here last year.
The key match looks to be his clash with Fils but Shelton has won both of their previous meetings on indoor hard without losing a set.
Quick conditions, like those in Paris, should aid his big serve and I just think he’s well set to progress from this group, probably behind Zverev.
Shelton has some potential in the outright market at 9/1 but my worry on that front is that if he finishes second in the pool, he may well run into Alcaraz in the last four which is concerning for those looking to back him each-way.
Instead, I’m going to turn to DANIIL MEDVEDEV for my outright pick.
He likes quick conditions – he’s long been a critic of the slow courts and balls which have proliferated the tour – and his results show that. He’s enjoyed title success in Almaty, Hangzhou and Brisbane this season, all of which are faster-than-average venues.
While he disappointed in Paris, that may well be a blessing in disguise following a heavy schedule which has included that Almaty victory, as well as semi-final runs in Vienna and Shanghai.
I’d expect him to have too much for Cobolli and Tiafoe in his group and go through in second behind Alcaraz (as long as the Spaniard in fully fit).
Chances are he would then face Zverev in the last four and he holds a good record in that match-up, leading 14-8 overall and having won eight of the last 10.
To me, 11/1 therefore makes each-way appeal at a venue where he’s made the final before (in 2021). He also won this tournament in 2020 when it was held in London – the odds on a repeat look too big.
Posted at 14:15 GMT on 14/11/26
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