Tennis betting tips Sunday May 26: French Open preview and best bets
Andy Schooler will be delivering his best match bets on each day of the French Open – here are his picks for Sunday’s opening day in Paris.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
2pts Stan Wawrinka (-3.5) to beat Andy Murray on the game handicap at evens (William Hill)
1pt Stan Wawrinka to beat Andy Murray 3-0 at 11/4 (General)
1.5pts Lorenzo Sonego to beat Ugo Humbert at 8/5 (betway)
Stan Wawrinka v Andy Murray
The opening night match of the 2024 French Open is a repeat of the classic 2017 semi-final, a contest Murray came within a game of winning but ultimately lost in five sets.
That night, Murray couldn’t sleep due to the pain in his hip and the defeat would effectively end his hopes of further Grand Slam glory.
While some die-hard Murray fans will still be holding out hope of one last title challenge at Wimbledon in July, there’s little doubt he won’t be contending at Roland Garros and he would only appear to be playing here at all to get some matchplay under his belt.
The reality is, he’ll already have his eye on the grasscourts of Surbiton, an event played in the second week of the French Open.
When legends collide ⚔️
— LTA (@the_LTA) May 23, 2024
The 23rd edition of @andy_murray vs Stan Wawrinka awaits in @rolandgarros round 1 🔥 pic.twitter.com/zzuoKwXT93
Since his return from ankle ligament damage suffered in Miami, Murray has played three matches on clay, losing two and the other going his way thanks to his opponent’s retirement. Two of them were played at Challenger level.
To be fair, Wawrinka has hardly been sparkling. He’s had his own issues and has also fallen back on the Challenger circuit, although his matches have brought greater encouragement – victory over Bernabe Zapata Miralles and narrow losses to the in-form Pedro Martinez and Albert Ramos-Vionlas. All are decent clay sorts.
However, one thing massively in Wawrinka’s favour ahead of this one is their head-to-head on clay – the Swiss leads 6-1.
His greater power has allowed him to hit through the Murray defence and I don’t think he’ll be concerned about this match being played at night – it’s Murray who would much prefer to be playing in the heat of the day (and therefore in quicker conditions).
It was a cakewalk for Wawrinka when these two met here in 2020 – Murray won just six games – and while it probably won’t be so one-sided on this occasion, I still think the Swiss should win with something to spare.
I’ll happily back him on the -3.5 game handicap line – he’s an even-money shot – and I’m also going to have a smaller bet on a straight-sets win for the 2015 champion.
Five of his six wins on clay against Murray have come in this fashion and I feel 11/4 looks rather big about it happening again.
Ugo Humbert v Lorenzo Sonego
A look at the previous meetings between these two shows a string of close, hard-fought matches – three of the five have gone to a final set – and so I’m a little surprised to see Sonego available at 8/5 here.
Humbert leads the head-to-head 3-2 and the Frenchman has enjoyed a fine season – he was a 12/1 winner in Marseille having been tipped up on these pages.
However, his game isn’t best suited to clay and of the two I’d say he struggles more to adapt to this surface.
Notably, the duo’s three claycourt matches have Sonego 2-1 in front.
The Italian beat Felix Auger-Aliassime and David Goffin in Monte Carlo, then fell to a three-set loss to Dusan Lajovic in Rome before defeating Federico Coria, a good claycourter, in Turin.
Humbert has suffered a string of early losses since moving onto the red dirt, including another first-round defeat in Lyon last week.
The obvious elephant in the room for those looking to back Sonego is that Humbert beat him when the pair met in Monte Carlo last month (in three sets), although it’s also worth noting that when these two faced off at Roland Garros 12 months ago, Sonego was a straight-sets winner.
Essentially, I feel there’s more and enough evidence to suggest 8/5 is good value about a win for Sonego and I’ll back him to land the upset here.
Posted at 1530 BST on 25/05/24
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