Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP Stockholm Open where he’s backing 6/1 and 16/1 shots.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Ugo Humbert at 16/1 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Alex Michelsen at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Bybit Stockholm Open
- Stockholm, Sweden (indoor hard)
I feel rather sorry for Stockholm.
Once one of the big stop-offs during the indoor season - an event won by the likes of Roger Federer, Boris Becker, Ivan Lendl, Stefan Edberg and John McEnroe – it has now been relegated almost literally to an after-thought.
The cut-off point for ATP Finals qualification was last week’s Paris Masters and the top players are now on their way to Turin.
That leaves little at stake for those bothering to show up in this graveyard slot – the tournament has been moved here from its long-term October position on the calendar.
One top-20 player is on the entry list at time of writing. However, I have to question the motivation levels of Taylor Fritz.
His failure to convert one of two match points against eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in Paris on Friday night means he won’t be returning to the ATP Finals, while neither will Fritz be involved in the Davis Cup Finals in Bologna the week after as the USA have failed to qualify.
The agonising nature of last week’s defeat – plus the fact it cost him more than $500,000 – will surely make it even tougher to get himself up for this 250-level event.
I can say similar things about second seed Casper Ruud, who was in Paris on Saturday night, losing to Alcaraz in the semi-finals.
He had knee issues in the French capital, while there’s also the quick turnaround to different conditions to deal with.
The Plexipave courts here haven’t been the quickest of late, while the Greenset Paris surface was one of the fastest seen on the tour in recent years.
That said, there are reasons to believe the conditions will be faster here than in previous seasons.
They’ve changed to the Dunlop ball, while there’s also an ATP experiment taking place this week with those balls being changed every seven games, rather than every nine.
They should result in faster play on average – the balls tend to fluff up and slow down the longer they are used.
The change should suit those players who rely on their serve plenty and UGO HUMBERT fits that bill.
He’s used that shot to great effect indoors over the years and last season he made the final here (when tipped each-way on these pages).
If conditions do speed up a tad, that should only help a player with an awkward lefty serve and a penchant for coming forward towards the net.
Humbert hasn’t been in the greatest form but his indoor record warrants plenty of respect – four of his seven titles have come with a roof over his head.
This season’s best results have also come when conditions have been fairly fast – final appearances in Adelaide and Eastbourne.
Humbert is nicely drawn in what looks a fairly weak second quarter. He’ll open against Adolfo Daniel Vallejo and, assuming he wins that, will then meet either qualifier Borna Gojo or Tomas Machac, who is hardly Mr Reliable.
Lorenzo Musetti could follow in the last eight and while he took out Alex Zverev in Paris he then lost to Luca van Assche the following day.
Indoors, I think that’s a pretty good route to the latter stages for Humbert.
One other factor that pushes me towards Humbert is that a good week would push him back into the world’s top 32, a position he’ll want to be in early in the new year as that would guarantee him a seeding at the Australian Open.
Humbert is worth an each-way bet again at 16/1.
Stockholm ATP 250 - Qualifiers placed pic.twitter.com/NbQVliiBpe
— Tennis Draws (@DrawsTennis) November 8, 2026
In the bottom half, ALEX MICHELSEN is worth considering on similar lines – he’s currently at 35th in the rankings, and is another with a good serve who could benefit if, as expected, those conditions are a bit quicker than in 2025.
The American is also well drawn, in Q3 where the only higher-ranked player is Alejandro Tabilo, not someone I’d expect to be shining too much indoors.
Michelsen may not have won that many matches since his impressive run to the US Open quarter-finals but, in his defence, he’s had some brutal draws.
In Tokyo, he faced eventual champion Alcaraz first up and still managed to force a deciding set.
Then, after heading indoors, he ran into Arthur Fils in back-to-back weeks, again putting up a strong fight in defeat. He had set points to force a decider in Brussels and lost in Basel in a final-set tie-break.
And then last week it was Alcaraz again, Michelsen blowing a 4-1 lead in the opening-set tie-break before losing in straights.
In short, he’s played pretty well and hasn’t been that far away. It’s a much easier draw this week with probably Quentin Halys the biggest threat in that third quarter and few players in the draw as a whole capable of reaching the levels of Alcaraz and Fils.
Given I’m happy to oppose Ruud in this half of the draw, let’s get with Michelsen at 6/1.
Posted at 20:35 GMT on 08/11/26
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