Andy Schooler has delivered a profit in four of the five rounds so far at the Cincinnati Open. Here’s his look at Saturday’s semi-finals.
Tennis betting tips: Cincinnati Open
0.5pt Flavio Cobolli to beat Arthur Fils at 11/5 (bet365)
1pt Frances Tiafoe to beat Brandon Nakashima at evens (General)
Flavio Cobolli v Arthur Fils (not before 1830 BST)
While Fils is undoubtedly the right favourite here, I was surprised to see how wide the gap was between the players’ prices.
Others were too it seems, given how Cobolli has shortened since I first looked at the odds on Friday.
I think he could still be a bit of value at 11/5 given how he’s been playing – he’s enjoyed a couple of excellent wins over Rafael Jodar and Tommy Paul in the past couple of rounds, although he has admittedly needed three sets in every match thus far in Cincinnati.
Fils, who has already landed our 13/2 quarter bet put up in the pre-tournament outright preview, does have plenty of data in his favour, though.
He’s dropped just the one set in four matches so far, losing his serve only twice. The Frenchman is also 2-0 up on the head-to-head, having won both encounters in straight sets and dropping serve just once in those contests.
However, they’ve not met since Monte Carlo last season, while Cobolli’s victory hopes have been undermined on both occasions by low first-serve percentages. He’s not the best on that front but will likely improve on figures of 49% and 52%.
It’s more of a ‘feel’ bet, based on what I’ve seen from the Italian in recent days, but I do think he’s a big price here.
An alternative is to back him on the handicap – he gets a 3.5-game start – but I’ll keep it simple and have a small play on the win market at 11/5.
Brandon Nakashima v Frances Tiafoe (n/b 2300 BST)
This contest also has a one-sided head-to-head – Tiafoe leads 7-1 overall, 6-1 at tour level and 5-1 on outdoor hardcourts.
Yet, in contrast to the first semi-final, the man who has dominated the series is actually the underdog – and that could give us a way in.
Tiafoe, the 2024 runner-up here, has been quietly progressing through the draw, losing only one set to get to this stage.
He followed up his impressive victory over second seed Felix Auger-Aliassime with a straight-sets success against Lorenzo Musetti on Friday night and was full of confidence afterwards.
The American said: “I was hitting my shots great tonight. From the back of the court I’ve been playing really well, so I was counting on that.”
We’ve seen time and again over the years how Tiafoe raises his level at this time of the season with so many of his best results coming during the North American hardcourt swing, so I would not be surprised to see another big performance here, especially given the confidence he will also bring in from that H2H record.
Another potential advantage is physical.
While Tiafoe lost early in both Washington and Montreal, Nakashima has plenty of tennis in the legs.
Yes, he’s in fine form after backing up his run to the final in Montreal but the matches are now mounting up and he’s needed three sets in each of his last three contests, defeating Taylor Fritz, Nuno Borges and Daniil Medvedev.
Admittedly, Nakashima also held a poor H2H against Fritz but I noted that he put his win down largely to learning from a recent defeat to his compatriot in Washington.
He has no such recent encounter here with his last match against Tiafoe coming back in February in Acapulco (Tiafoe won in a deciding set).
Yes, Nakashima’s serve is firing well right now but history shows Tiafoe has been able to figure that out in the past and I’m happy to back him as the outsider in this one.
Posted 08:20 BST on 22/08/2026
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