Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
2pts win Alex Zverev at 9/2 (Virgin Bet)
1pt e.w. Ben Shelton at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Arthur Fils to win the second quarter at 13/2 (General)
Cincinnati Open
• Cincinnati, USA (outdoor hard)
The final Grand Slam tournament of the season is now looming large – and that’s bad news for the world’s current top two.
Both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are nursing injuries – the former hasn’t played since successfully defending his Wimbledon title, while Alcaraz last competed back in April.
Neither makes the line-up for this event, which represents the last big chance for players to test themselves ahead of Flushing Meadows.
After a Canadian Masters full of upsets, there should be plenty of players heading to the Lindner Family Tennis Center motivated to put a string of wins together and play themselves into form.
They will find some of the quickest conditions on the tour in Ohio with last season’s switch to a Har-Tru surface having little effect on the court speed, at least according to the data. It’s officially classed as ‘medium-fast’.
It’s the same surface (and Wilson balls) that has been in use in Montreal and Washington in recent weeks but the local conditions – which are usually pretty hot and include some slight altitude – tend to speed things up.
That’s suited ALEX ZVEREV in the past and I think the favourite has a great chance of adding to his 2021 title.
The German has played this event three times since that success and made three semi-finals, losing only to Alcaraz, Sinner (via a final-set tie-break) and Novak Djokovic.
In his last four visits, he’s gone 16-3 and in those 16 wins, he’s had his serve broken just 14 times.
The conditions really work for his big serve, while off the ground he’s been able to dictate with his excellent backhand which has again been a real weapon this season, while it’s fair say the consistency of the forehand has also been better.
Overall, Zverev has been remarkably consistent in 2026, making the semis (or better) at nine of the 12 tournaments he’s contested.
The fact he’s only won one will be off-putting for some but that one was significant, Zverev breaking his Grand Slam duck at the French Open which must have lifted a significant weight from his shoulders.
That was evident, to some extent, at Wimbledon where he made the final despite a pretty poor career record on grass.
Given his exploits in Paris and London, I think he can be forgiven an early exit in Montreal to Tallon Griekspoor a couple of weeks ago.
Dealing with a long Wimbledon run would have been a new experience and the positive to take from that loss is he now arrives in Cincinnati needing matches under his belt. Expect laser focus.
I know a best price of 9/2 (and 4/1 is more widely available) won’t be for everyone but Zverev has been very good this season and is playing at one of his favourite venues so I’m happy to back him.
The other player I think has a strong chance is in the opposite half of the draw and it’s BEN SHELTON.
He’s been playing some of the best tennis of his career in Montreal where, at time of writing, he’s due to contest the final against Brandon Nakashima.
We all know about the weapon that is the Shelton serve - he’s gone unbroken against Learner Tien, Jakub Mensik and Zizou Bergs this past week - but he’s also been taking players apart on the return.
In all five Montreal matches to date he’s broken his opponent at least three times. He’s also yet to drop a set.
Shelton has made the quarter-finals in each of the last two years in Cincinnati, losing to the aforementioned Zverev on both occasions.
He’s already the champion in Dallas (fast indoors), Munich (clay at altitude) and Stuttgart (grass) this season, so he’s a proven performer in slick conditions.
Some will worry about making back-to-back finals as it doesn’t happen often in this Canada/Cincy swing – Daniil Medvedev was the last to play in both finals in 2019, while you have to go back to 2013 and Rafael Nadal to find the last player to complete the title double.
However, the calendar changed significantly last season when both events began to be played across 11/12 days which basically means plenty more rest between matches.
While such events have been far from universally accepted, the change does make things easier physically, even if having to put aside four weeks for two tournaments is more taxing from a mental perspective.
In addition, Shelton is only 23 and I’d expect him to be wanting to make the most of his impressive form, knowing even if he does go deep again, he’ll still have a week off before the US Open begins.
A top price of 10/1 is enough to tempt me in and even has each-way potential.
The other big name I need to mention in Novak Djokovic, who is around a 6/1 chance.
Anyone with his record warrants respect – at this particular event he’s played in seven finals, winning two of them – but the fact is he’s not won one of these Masters 1000 tournaments since 2023.
In the 11 he’s played since, he’s lost before the quarter-finals in seven of them.
We all know it’s all about the majors for the Serb these days and so his trip here will be all about preparing for New York.
Now, the absence of Sinner and Alcaraz, the men who have proved the thorn in his side over the past few years, may well have him motivated that bit more but, for me, the price remains too short for a player who hasn’t really been that invested at Masters level for some time.
Djokovic is the man seeded to come through the second quarter and face Zverev in the semis but ARTHUR FILS looks a decent alternative.
He showed plenty of good signs in Montreal that he is heading back towards top form – he demolished Mariano Navone and easily dispatched Cam Norrie.
His run ended at the quarter-final stage against Rafael Jodar but it will certainly have restored confidence to a player who was one of the stars of the first half of the season.
His Montreal efforts ended a streak of four defeats in five matches but prior to that it should be remembered he was tearing it up, winning in Barcelona, making the Doha final and the semis in both Miami and Madrid.
I think he can be a threat in Cincinnati and will back him at 13/2 to win the quarter.
An alternative would be to take the 33/1 each way but my position on Zverev means I’ll go the other way.
Other big-priced players considered included Hubert Hurkacz (100/1) in the top half – he made the last eight here in 2024 and the semis the year before that. If he serves well, he’ll be tough to break in these conditions.
The same can be said of Arthur Rinderknech (also 100s) in Shelton’s quarter.
He plays a lot of tie-breaks and so a good serving week could lead him deep, as was the case at last season’s Shanghai Masters.
Posted at 09:00 BST on 13/08/26
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