After landing a 13/10 winner on Tuesday, Andy Schooler is back to preview Wednesday’s last-16 ties at the Cincinnati Open.
Tennis tips: Cincinnati Open
1pt Arthur Fils to beat Alex de Minaur 2-0 at 7/5 (General)
Arthur Fils v Alex de Minaur
I’ve mentioned De Minaur on a few occasions already during this North American hardcourt season, usually for negative reasons.
He’s not been in the best of form and this column profited when he was edged out by Cam Norrie in Montreal recently.
In his last match, another Briton, Arthur Fery, exposed some of his vulnerabilities, fighting back from 5-1 down in the second set to force a tie-break.
De Minaur’s serve has never been his strongest asset but it’s been particularly vulnerable of late and the fact that he’s yet to get more than 54% of his first serves in during any match in this hardcourt swing helps show why.
Norrie hurt him on that front and Fils can do the same here.
As highlighted in my outright preview of this event, the Frenchman’s momentum has been building as he returns towards his best form.
He’s now won five of his last six matches, claiming an impressive victory over Jiri Lehecka last time out.
Admittedly, he does trail 2-1 on the head-to-head with the pair’s last meeting coming in Rotterdam earlier this season.
However, that was just Fils’ fourth match back after a six-month lay-off so I’d imagine he took some positives from the fact that he forced a tie-break in the first set.
Fils is currently ranked 21st and it’s worth noting that De Minaur has beaten just one player ranked as high as that since that Rotterdam tournament in February.
For me, Fils’s better form makes him the bet here and I’ll side with him to post a straight-sets victory at 7/5.
Alex Zverev v Tommy Paul
Zverev is among my outright picks but I must admit I’m a little worried about that bet heading into this contest.
The German hasn’t hit the high notes yet, needing three sets to see off Cam Norrie in his opener and two tie-breaks last time out against Terence Atmane.
He also trails Paul across their previous meetings, the American leading 2-1 although Zverev did win the most recent at last year’s Australian Open. All were played on outdoor hard.
It feels like Paul hasn’t had his best season (and that’s probably true) but he’s still been pretty consistent and is more than capable on this surface.
He’s at 12/5 to land the upset and is 3/4 to cover the -1.5 set handicap.
I can see both of those having their backers but I’m not convinced enough to be going against my ante-post selection.
Zverev has long enjoyed conditions here, making at least the semis in his last four visits, while Paul actually has a losing record at this event (6-7) and is yet to post a top-10 victory in Cincy.
Posted 10:00 BST on 19/08/2026
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