Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for the ATP tournaments in Japan and Astana.

Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Frances Tiafoe in the Rakuten Japan Open at 9/1 (BetVictor)

1pt e.w. Denis Shapovalov in the Rakuten Japan Open at 14/1 (Unibet)

1pt e.w. Andrey Rublev in the Astana Open at 16/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Rakuten Japan Open

• Tokyo, Japan (outdoor hard)

DENIS SHAPOVALOV showed good signs that he’s coming back to form in Seoul last week and he looks a decent price to go a step further in the Japan Open.

The Canadian made the final in Korea only to lose to Yoshihito Nishioka on Sunday but he certainly made decent strides over his four matches.

In particular, the Shapovalov serve was in good working order on the DecoTurf courts in Seoul and with the same surface on offer in Tokyo, he should be able to make a smooth transition, ready to mount another title challenge.

His numbers for points won on serve were strong – 71%, 78%, 66% and 67% - with the first delivery proving very difficult to get back.

The world number 24 went into the week 14th for first-serve points won on hardcourts in 2022 and is likely to have improved his position when that list is updated.

This will be Shapovalov’s third visit to the Ariake Coliseum and his previous two have brought one semi-final appearance (in 2018) so there’s some course form too.

Essentially, there’s enough to like about Shapovalov to think he’s too big at 14/1 – Sky Bet are going 16s but they still have Cameron Norrie in their market and the Briton has been forced to withdraw due to COVID.

Norrie’s absence makes the bottom half of the draw – that of Shapovalov – considerably weaker.

Borna Coric, now the ninth seed, takes his slot in the draw and, as explained in last week’s preview, does have the ability to go deep.

However, the fact he withdrew from Seoul at the last minute with an ankle problem has to be a worry for potential backers this week. He’s also got a tricky draw with Thanasi Kokkinakis first up and Brandon Nakashima likely to follow.

Nakashima was considered at 16s.

He won on home soil in San Diego a couple of weeks ago and with his Japanese family heritage – his father’s side of the family is from Japan – I expect he’ll be targeting a good run here as well.

But having seen Shapovalov last week, I’m keen on seeing if he’s really on an upward curve, albeit his lack of ATP titles remains a concern.

• CLICK HERE to back Shapovalov with Sky Bet

As mentioned many times in this column in the past, he has just one on his CV, but I do feel his price helps allay those fears enough.

Taylor Fritz, ill last week, and tournament favourite Nick Kyrgios are the other big threats in the bottom half. Both are in the third quarter.

If Kyrgios performs to levels we’ve seen in recent months, he’s more than capable of winning this – just as he did in 2016.

However, while the Australian’s consistency has improved this season, I’m still very wary of backing him at prices as short as 4/1.

He was well beaten by potential quarter-final foe Fritz in Cincinnati in August – their only previous meeting – while Kyrgios also trails Shapovalov 1-0 on the head-to-head. They could meet in the last four.

Frankly, Kyrgios is too short and if he wins, I’ll certainly get over that quickly.

The top half is led by world number two Casper Ruud but neither am I keen on backing the Norwegian right now.

This will be is sixth consecutive week of tennis on his third different continent and after the monumental effort of reaching the US Open at the start of that run, it looks a lot to deal with.

Ruud was certainly below his best in defeat to Nishioka in the Seoul quarter-finals last week and while he’s landed in the easier half of the draw here, 11/2 is short enough for me.

At twice the price I’m more inclined to back FRANCES TIAFOE.

At this time of season, there’s always an element of risk involved with selections, especially those who have given a big effort and achieved much, as Tiafoe did at the recent US Open.

However, that was a career-best effort from the American and he’s since backed it up by claiming Team World’s winning point at the Laver Cup – another big confidence boost.

I think he’ll be determined to keep his momentum rolling and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that a good October sees him reach the ATP Finals for the first time. 500 points for victory this week would put him right in the mix.

He’s in a good part of the draw where Dan Evans is his slated quarter-final opponent (Tiafoe leads 3-2, including the last two) before Ruud may await in the semis. That match would be the pair’s first meeting.

9/1 looks a fair price, one I’m happy to back.

• CLICK HERE to back Tiafoe with Sky Bet

Astana Open

• Astana, Kazakhstan (indoor hard)

With eight of the world’s top 16 in attendance, the Astana Open looks to be the strongest 500-level event on this season’s ATP Tour.

After two years of temporary status on the calendar, the decision to make the tournament a permanent fixture – and to promote it to the 500 tier – has paid rich dividends, at least in terms of entertainment potential.

New world number one Carlos Alcaraz makes his first appearance since his US Open triumph, while the man he replaced at the summit, Daniil Medvedev, is the second seed.

However, it’s Novak Djokovic who is widely regarded as the title favourite – he’s here on a wild card and fresh off a final appearance in Tel-Aviv (that match had yet to take place at time of writing).

Of those three, who have a bit of a gap to the rest of the market, I’d be keenest on Djokovic, although a quick turnaround to a venue that is likely to play slower is a bit of a concern.

The Greenset here has certainly proved sluggish in the past couple of years and that is unlikely to help Medvedev, who has looked a long way from his best lately.

He was well beaten by Nick Kyrgios at the US Open and last time out loss pretty miserably to veteran Stan Wawrinka in Metz.

In the same quarter as Felix Auger-Aliassime and the same half as Djokovic, he looks one to avoid.

In the top half, Alcaraz is obviously the man to beat but we’re entering an odd part of the season for the Spaniard.

He’s already qualified for November’s ATP Finals and has the Davis Cup Finals to come after that.

I get the ‘youthful vibrancy’ argument but the sensible thing to do over the next few weeks would be to conserve something for the bigger prizes which lie ahead and I don’t want to be backing him this week.

Given the quality of player involved, anything less than 100 per cent may not cut it this week and the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, ANDREY RUBLEV and Hubert Hurkacz are all looming in this half.

If you are ready to oppose Alcaraz, it’s not hard to make a case for any of these but I’m going to try Rublev.

Some of you will doubtless disagree. I know he’s proved a bit of a let-down in big events in the past and some will add a recent US Open quarter-final loss to Frances Tiafoe to that list.

But there was also plenty to like in New York, while Rublev has already won on hardcourts in Dubai this season and also made the semis of the Indian Wells Masters.

He’s won five of these 500-level tournaments in the past 25 months and while none has been a strong as this, Rublev does have a decent record against his fellow top-10 players – he’s got a 3-2 win-loss tally for this season, while it’s 15-15 since the start of 2019.

That’s certainly not bad for someone who is yet to crack the top four.

The slower conditions should suit and he does have the power to compete with the likes of Alcaraz (they have yet to meet).

Rublev also leads Tsitsipas 4-2 and Hurkacz 2-1 on hardcourts.

With an ATP Finals spot to chase, motivation is there in spades too.

I reckon there’s enough there to warrant a small interest in the Russian at 16/1 ahead of what looks a highly-competitive tournament.

• CLICK HERE to back Rublev with Sky Bet

Last updated 1930 BST on 02/10/22

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