Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s all-Spanish final of the Rolex Shanghai Masters between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Rafael Jodar.
Tennis tips: Shanghai Masters final
1pt Rafael Jodar to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 8/11 (General)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina v Rafael Jodar (0930 BST)
It’s been quite a week in Shanghai.
It began with me deleting Davidovich Fokina from the recommended bets in my outright preview.
It will end with either the 66/1 shot or Jodar – the man I put up last week in Tokyo only to see him win four games in a woeful opening-round display – lifting the title.
Oh, and in between the man I did put up each way at 25/1, Daniil Medvedev, lost in the semi-finals.
You probably can tell that previewing this match isn’t something I’m particularly relishing right now but that’s the nature of the job.
The all-Spanish final offers rising star Jodar a big chance to claim the biggest title of his career to date and the 20-year-old starts favourite.
He’s already guaranteed to crack the world’s top 10 on Monday – a remarkable achievement given he started the year outside the top 100.
I’m not sure that means the pressure is off but I do agree with the layers’ assessment.
His ball control in Saturday’s semi-final win over Medvedev was impressive as he was able to move his run-all-day opponent around the court and if he’s able to dictate in the rallies like that, I think Jodar will be well on the path to victory.
Davidovich Fokina comes in off victory over world number one in-waiting Alex Zverev in his semi-final.
Yet Zverev himself admitted what we’d all seen earlier in the week – that he hadn’t been at his best, run down after a long run without a break – and maybe that victory wasn’t quite the gold standard it might otherwise look.
Another factor worth mentioning is that the 27-year-old landed 82% of his first serves against Zverev, a remarkable number which he’ll do extremely well to match in this contest.
Jodar dealt with Medvedev’s potent serve very well but you always wonder what sort of read a player will get on that shot when they’ve not faced an opponent before, as is the case here.
I’m also a little wary of Jodar’s ability to throw in a shocker – that Tokyo thrashing by the unheralded Adolfo Daniel Vallejo came just a few weeks after he won only four games against Bu Yunchaokete at the US Open.
However, if nerves aren’t to be a factor, then I feel Jodar does hold the better chance of victory here.
He’s the tentative pick at a backable price of 8/11, although that’s definitely not something worth piling into.
Posted 19:50 BST on 17/10/2026
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