Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP Tour events in Beijing and Tokyo.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Alex de Minaur in the China Open at 11/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Rafael Jodar in the Kinoshita Group Japan Open at 12/1 (General)
China Open
- Beijing, China (outdoor hard)
I am writing this preview ahead of the finals in Chengdu and Hangzhou, the opening events of the Asian swing.
I’ve long felt that the ‘250’ events on the ATP Tour tend to offer the best value to punters with the leading names often lacking motivation to win at what is the lowest level of the tour.
However, a look at the finalists this week shows three top-two seeds, plus the big-serving Hubert Hurkacz, who was among the favourites in slick Chengdu.
My alternative picks did absolutely nothing – the sort of preview which leaves you utterly red-faced – but then when I look at how both tournaments have panned out, I’m not sure there’s a great deal you can do when the big guns decide they are up for it.
Of course, I could have selected the finalists at a pretty short price but that’s not really my approach so all I can do is say congratulations to those who did back the likes of Hurkacz and move on.
Where we move on to is Beijing (and Tokyo, see below) and we’re now at 500 level – that’s double the amount of ranking points on offer and more prize money, too.
In short, motivation levels are higher and that’s reflected in the list of champions In Beijing.
This is an event Novak Djokovic dominated in his heyday – he’s a six-time winner and holds a 29-0 record here. He’s back for more this season, 11 years after his last appearance.
And since the tournament returned to the calendar after COVID, it has been won by Jannik Sinner twice and Carlos Alcaraz once.
Basically, the cream tends to rise to the top here and that is good news for this year’s top seed Alex Zverev, who recently claimed his second Grand Slam title of the season at the US Open.
He’s now very much in the race to end the year as world number one so does have that added motivation and I’m sure he’ll be a popular selection this week, potentially in a double with Alcaraz, who plays in Tokyo.
That double pays north of 4/1 and I would not be at all surprised to see it land, just as the Sinner-Alcaraz double did across these events 12 months ago.
However, there are some potential concerns for Zverev backers.
First of all, while he’s got a decent Beijing record, the German is yet to reach the final here.
Second, it’s notable that Zverev hasn’t had a break since that US Open victory, which is rare these days for a Slam winner.
After New York, he went straight to Halle for Davis Cup action and then it was on to the Laver Cup where he suffered a surprise defeat to Alex de Minaur at the weekend.
A Monday flight to China will have given him little time to tune into different conditions (outdoor instead of indoor) and with no first-round byes in 500 events, you can see how he might be vulnerable.
In terms of the draw, Djokovic is in Zverev’s quarter, although I’d be more concerned by the threat of Daniil Medvedev, a possible semi-final foe. He’s one of those involved in the Hangzhou final.
For all I’ve tried to pick holes in the top seed, probably the safest way of opposing him is to seek out a potential finalist in the bottom half of the draw – if that player does reach the final and Zverev isn’t there, a decent-priced winner could be on the cards.
The man seeded to make the final is Felix Auger-Aliassime, although he opens against US Open semi-finalist Karen Khachanov. I’m intrigued to see how the Russian backs up that New York run, which came out of the blue. Maybe he could be worth a try at 22/1.
However, the bottom quarter is a tricky section, one which also includes last year’s runner-up Learner Tien and the aforementioned Hurkacz – the pair will meet in the opening round.
The third quarter looks calmer and it’s here where I’m prepared to take a chance on ALEX DE MINAUR.
Admittedly, it’s not been the greatest of seasons for the Australian but he’s still in the hunt for a spot at the ATP Finals and I’m sure that will be a goal he is looking to achieve over the next month or so. Claiming 500 points here would be a massive step towards that.
He will take confidence from the fact he made the semis here 12 months ago when he took eventual champion Sinner to a final set.
De Minaur also looks well drawn, with Mariano Navone up first and Flavio Cobolli the only higher-ranked player in the quarter.
But the big reason I’m ready to back the likeable Aussie is that he’s just taken down form man Zverev in the Laver Cup, which I think is just the sort of result he needs to restore his self-belief.
De Minaur’s poor record against the elite has often been highlighted, including on these pages, but he’s actually now got a winning record versus the top 10 this season (3-2).
Yes, he’s also got the flight and fairly quick turnaround to deal with, but he showed last year (when arriving from the Laver Cup in San Francisco) that he could handle the jet-lag aspect and I’m prepared to give him a go at 11/1.
Kinoshita Group Japan Open
- Tokyo, Japan (outdoor hard)
Carlos Alcaraz is a hot favourite to successfully defend his title in Tokyo – no bigger than even money.
If he turns up in top form, he should win, despite nine more of the world’s top 20 being in the field.
However, expecting the Spaniard to deliver that high level might be setting the bar a bit too high.
It should be remembered that the US Open was his first tournament in more than four months and while he did well to reach the quarter-finals, it was at that point that Ben Shelton was able to eliminate the defending champion.
Alcaraz began to struggle a little in the closing stages of that match, with power coming off his shots, so you could argue the best-of-three-sets format – in use this week – would have been better for him, albeit Shelton did lead 2-1 after the third set.
Alcaraz has since helped Europe win the Laver Cup in London at the weekend, although again his very best was absent as he edged past Taylor Fritz in a final-set tie-break.
The pair could meet again here in the semi-finals – Fritz won in Tokyo in 2022 and was beaten in last year’s final.
I also remember writing this time last year about Alcaraz’s poor record in post-US Open events during his career.
It didn’t prove a particularly pertinent point on that occasion as he went on to lift the trophy but that was just his second ATP title won after a US Open and remains so.
The bottom line is I don’t want to be backing Alcaraz at such a short price right now and much prefer to look elsewhere for what could be a touch of value.
Again, the safest play is to pick out an each-way selection in the bottom half which could reward even if Alcaraz does end up dominating.
Frances Tiafoe is the second seed and he returns to action for the first time since his run to the US Open last four.
Having also reached the Cincinnati final recently, the American is in fine form but he’s always been a player who has delivered his best in his homeland – and has often struggled to replicate it further afield.
On that front, the Asian swing is a great case study.
While Tiafoe did reach the final here back in 2022, he’s since gone 1-6 during this part of the season.
And prior to his 2022 runner-up effort, Tiafoe had gone 3-6 on the Asian swing which leaves his Tokyo final looking very much like a serious outlier.
There’s also a tough draw with Kei Nishikori – playing his final tournament in his homeland – first up, while dangerous floater Arthur Fils could follow in round two. Top-10 star Fils is unseeded after missing the registration deadline and being forced to come through qualifying!
So, I’m happy to take Tiafoe on, with preference in the bottom half being RAFAEL JODAR.
Now, some will immediately highlight the Spaniard’s shocking US Open first-round defeat to Bu Yunchaokete when he won just four games.
Jodar seemed to brush off the loss due to a lack of experience – “there are going to be things like this because I'm new,” he said – and indeed he was making his debut at that particular Slam.
The youngster does already appear to have put that surprise well behind him, though.
In Davis Cup, he thrashed Cristian Garin for the loss of just two games, while Alexander Bublik only managed five against him in the Laver Cup at the weekend.
I think the fact that Team Europe captain Yannick Noah selected Jodar to play the potentially decisive final rubber in that event, says much about the form he had displayed in London and while he ultimately wasn’t needed (Europe won with two matches to spare), he looks in a good place heading to Beijing where the DecoTurf hardcourts aren’t the fastest and should suit.
Jodar could have faced Fils in the first round but instead meets another qualifier, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina could follow in round two but the Spaniard has just been to the final in Hangzhou, which was his first event in two months. I do wonder if he’ll even make the start line here.
Brandon Nakashima is the other seed in the quarter – tricky but not frightening.
It should also be remembered that Jodar was very impressive in the weeks leading up to the US Open, making the Washington final and the semis in Montreal.
Admittedly, he’s often found the very best that bit too good so far in his embryonic career. Jodar is 1-5 against top-10 players, although there are only two of those in this half of the draw – Tiafoe and Fils – and the Spaniard can only face one of them.
For those seeking a proper long shot, I’m interested to see how Alexander Blockx performs.
He was last seen limping away from the US Open, his body letting him down after he had impressively battled his way through to the last eight, defeating seeds Flavio Cobolli and Francisco Cerundolo along the way.
If the Belgian, who also made his first ATP title in Estoril a couple of months ago, is fully fit and able to reproduce that sort of form, he may be able to go well at 66/1.
Opening opponent Valentin Vacherot suffered another early loss last week and hasn’t been able to find a winning groove since his mid-season injury.
Still, even if that hurdle is overcome, Stefanos Tsitsipas is another awkward qualifier in this section, while it would likely be Fils or Tiafoe in the quarter-finals.
That’s a tough draw which helps explain the price. Add in the fact I’m already on Jodar in the bottom half and I’ll leave Blockx off the staking plan.
Posted at 12:25 BST on 29/09/26
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