Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for ATP Tour events in Australia and Hong Kong

Tennis betting tips: United Cup

1pt e.w. Grigor Dimitrov in the Brisbane International at 18/1 (BetVictor, bet365)

1pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in the Bank of China Hong Kong Open at 18/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Yibing Wu in the Bank of China Hong Kong Open at 22/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Brisbane International

• Brisbane, Australia (outdoor hard)

The first ‘regular’ tournament of the ATP Tour season takes place in Brisbane where the GreenSet courts and Dunlop balls have tended to play pretty quick in recent times.

Such conditions helped Reilly Opelka make the final last year before he hit a wall injury-wise when facing Jiri Lehecka.

It would be no great surprise for another strong server to make waves this time around and there are several of them in this field.

Last season’s finalists are both back for more, while the likes of Denis Shapovalov and Ugo Humbert may well fancy their chances.

A player with one of the biggest serves around is Nick Kyrgios, finally back on the ATP Tour after a long injury absence. He hasn’t played competitively since March.

The 2018 champion here, Kyrgios recently made headlines for his ‘Battle of the Sexes’ match with Aryna Sabalenka and he’ll be hoping to write a few more here.

I’d normally be rather put off backing anyone after a long-term injury absence.

Indeed, I can’t back Kyrgios here, but I am prepared to take a chance of another former champion, namely GRIGOR DIMITROV.

This is the Bulgarian’s most successful tournament – he won here in 2024 and 2017. He also played in the 2013 final and has made the semis on three other occasions.

“There’s no better place to start,” Dimitrov said ahead of this event. “I feel like I’m in a good place mentally and physically, hopefully it puts me in a good place to start competing.”

The latter part of that sentence is a nod to the injury he picked up at Wimbledon when he tore a pectoral muscle. At the time, he looked on course to knock out eventual champion Jannik Sinner – Dimitrov was two sets up when injury struck.

However, Dimitrov did return to action at the Paris Masters at the end of the season to test his fitness which is a good sign (he beat Giovanni Mpetschi Perricard there) and it sounds like he’s subsequently managed a full pre-season.

Having appointed a new coach in Xavier Malisse, who had previously worked with Alexei Popyrin, the 34-year-old added: “Hopefully the things that I’ve been working on in practice can translate over.”

Clearly the lack of match play in recent months is a concern but if there is a good time to back such a player it is surely the first week of the season when every opponent has the potential to be rather rusty.

Dimitrov’s record here shows not only that he loves the venue but also that he is someone who hits the ground running – always a factor to consider in this part of the calendar.

Shapovalov and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are the seeds in Dimitrov’s quarter and he could face Tommy Paul in the semis.

However, that’s not such a bad draw and if Dimitrov is able to find his high level quickly, he can certainly contend.

Up in the top half, we find both Lehecka and Opelka, neither of whom should be ruled out.

The top seed is Daniil Medvedev, who did show signs of improvement in the final months of 2025 – I still can’t believe he lost in the semis in Shanghai when tipped up at 40/1 on these pages.

However, backing favourites in this week looks risky, especially at only 7/2, and I can certainly swerve on this occasion.

I’ve already tipped Joao Fonseca for a strong season, although he faces Opelka first up and it could be a bit too fast for the teenage Brazilian here.

I was also tempted to back Learner Tien again.

He potentially has got a jump start on this field given he was in competitive action just two weeks ago at the Next Gen ATP Finals in Jeddah. emerging victorious and delivering a winner for this column in the process.

However, again the slick courts aren’t ideal for the American and odds of no bigger than 17/2 don’t exactly scream value.

Bank of China Hong Kong Open

• Causeway Bay, China (outdoor hard)

The ATP Tour returned to Hong Kong in 2024 and in its two-year run, there’s been a trend for early seeded casualties.

Last year, six of the eight seeds failed to make the quarter-finals, while in 2024 it was five of eight.

OK, it’s fairly small sample but perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. Hong Kong is effectively a stop-off en route to the Australian Open and you can imagine some players sub-consciously wanting to get Down Under to settle in properly for the first Grand Slam of the season. Remember, the winner here won’t get to Melbourne until Monday evening, in all likelihood, leaving just five days before the event begins.

The Victoria Park Tennis Centre features the same GreenSet courts and Dunlop balls which will be in use at Melbourne so it can be expected to play faster than your average hardcourt.

The two previous winners, Alexandre Muller and Andrey Rublev, are both back for more. Rublev is third see this year, behind Lorenzo Musetti and Alexander Bublik.

A case can be made for the top three but that record of this event being something of a graveyard for seeds pushes me towards those further down the market.

One I feel could go well at a decent price is wild card YIBING WU.

He ended 2025 by winning gold at China’s National Games, beating Jerry Shang in the final. Wu said that his efforts that week had boosted his confidence for the 2026 season.

He’s often performed well in his homeland – last season Wu’s best result was a semi-final appearance in Hangzhou where Medvedev was among his victims.

The 26-year-old has also won titles in China on both the Challenger and ITF World Tours.

While you argue whether Hong Kong is part of China or not these days, Wu should feel at home here. Indeed, he has said he played at Victoria Park “many times during my teenage years”.

Fabian Marozsan is a winnable first match before a meeting with Rublev, who admittedly has often started a new season well, although he begins 2026 at his lowest ranking for some time. Wu, who took a set off Rublev in their only previous meeting, would be a tricky season-opener for the Russian.

In the opposite half of the draw, I’m also keen on backing LORENZO SONEGO.

He shone at the Australian Open last January, reaching the quarter-finals, and knows his ranking could plummet if the opening month of the campaign doesn’t go well.

“After doing well, it’s natural that I’ll aim to repeat that feat,” said Sonego, when asked about his new season.

“It will be crucial to think one match at a time, without going onto the court anxious about the points running out.”

Notably, he also spoke about how he aimed “to enter the tournament and the Melbourne climate with the right rhythm” and that, surely, means getting some early wins under his belt.

Hong Kong gives him a chance to do so.

Seeded fifth, he opens against lowly-ranked Japanese Rei Sakamoto, before facing either Shang or Francisco Comesana.

Sonego should be buoyed by how he ended 2025.

A semi-final in Metz came hot on the heels of a quarter-final in Stockholm. He also beat Musetti in Paris.

I’ve written before about how Sonego has often gone well in fairly quick conditions and that is borne out by his last-16 run at Wimbledon, as well as his Australian Open effort last term.

In short, I’m happy to side with the Italian at 18s.

Posted at 08:00 GMT on 04/01/26

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