Our tennis man Andy Schooler previews the Next Gen ATP Finals, which get under way in Jeddah on Wednesday.
Tennis betting tips: Next Gen ATP Finals
3pts Learner Tien to win the title at 6/5 (BetVictor, Betfred)
1pt Justin Engel to win the title at 12/1 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
The Next Gen ATP Finals was created as an end-of-season showcase for the game’s top young players.
A vessel used to try out some innovations, it has largely been a success, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner both former champions.
However, it has long had a problem with attracting the very best youngsters – for example, Alcaraz qualified in 2022 when he was already world number one and found this tournament rather surplus to requirements.
This year the event is missing both Joao Fonseca, last year’s winner, and Jakub Mensik, who have both opted out.
The decision to move the tournament to this bizarre mid-December slot has doubtless not helped matters on that front – is this the end of the 2025 season or the start of the 2026 one? Perhaps it’s neither.
What also hasn’t helped organisers this year is the lack of 20-and-under talent currently at the top of the game.
In 2019, all eight ‘Next Gen’ players were ranked inside the top 100. With Fonseca and Mensik absent, this year there will be just one – Learner Tien.
What is the same is the format.
It’s Fast4 tennis, so that’s the first to four games winning a set. If it gets to 3-3, there’s a tie-break, which is a big reason why I’ve always placed plenty of weight on tie-break records when looking for potential champions.
The field is split into two groups of four with the top two in each progressing to the knockout semi-finals, as was the case at last month’s ATP Finals.
They play on indoor hardcourts (GreenSet) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where conditions have tended to be pretty quick since the tournament moved here in 2023.
Let’s look at the contenders…
BLUE GROUP
Learner Tien
- Best odds: Title – 6/5; Group – 7/10
- Race position: 3
- Ranking: 28
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 32-23
- 2025 best performances: W Metz, RU Beijing
- Recent form: W Metz, L32 Paris, L16 Shanghai, RU Beijing
- Record v group opponents: None
The class of the field – Tien is a top-30 player and no-one else is in the top 100. The American, who ended the ‘real’ season by winning his first ATP title in Metz, really should be winning this. He did make the final 12 months ago at the same venue in a much stronger field. The one concern goes back to the tournament’s timing and, therefore, how serious the players are going to be taking things. The favourites flopped last year and if Tien is treating this as pre-season training, he could be toppled.
Martin Landaluce
- Best odds: Title – 12/1; Group – 7/1
- Race position: 6
- Ranking:134
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 2-9
- 2025 best performances: W Orleans Challenger, SF x4 Challengers
- Recent form: L32 Bratislava CH, SF Olbia CH, QF Villena CH, W Orleans CH
- Record v group opponents: v Budkov Kjaer – overall: 3-0; indoor hard: 1-0; 2025: 3-0
One of five former junior Grand Slam champions in the field (2022 US Open for those asking), Landaluce enjoys the hardcourts but didn’t have a spectacular 2025 season. He went only 37-29 despite playing mainly on the Challenger Tour, with his serve looking one of the weakest here – the Spaniard has held in only 76% of his service games in 2025.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
- Best odds: Title – 12/1; Group – 7/1
- Race position: 7
- Ranking:136
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 3-5
- 2025 best performances: W Mouilleron le Captif, Astana, Tampere & Glasgow Challengers
- Recent form: Q1 Metz, L32 Vienna, L32 Stockholm, QF Roanne CH
- Record v group opponents: v Landaluce – overall: 0-3; indoor hard: 0-1; 2025: 0-3
The hard-hitting Norwegian is bidding to follow in Casper Ruud’s footsteps but while he tested some top-50 stars in Davis Cup earlier this year, the fact is he’s yet to beat anyone in the top 100. The Wimbledon boys’ champion of 2024 dipped his toe into the main tour at the end of the season but struggled, losing four in a row. Also has a poor record against Landaluce to overcome.
Rafael Jodar
- Best odds: Title – 10/1; Group – 5/1
- Race position: 9
- Ranking: 168
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 0-0
- 2025 best performances: W Charlottesville, Lincoln & Hersonissos Challengers
- Recent form: W Charlottesville CH, L16 Sioux Falls CH, W Lincoln CH, SF Tiburon CH
- Record v group opponents: None
Jodar is the only player in Jeddah yet to play a match at Tour level. Didn’t start the 2025 campaign until April but made up for lost time, winning 39 of his 51 matches on the Challenger Tour, including 11 of his last 12. Standing 6ft 3in, the University of Virginia student makes good use of his serve while his return stats – 34% of return games won – are also impressive. Should not be ruled out.
RED GROUP
Alexander Blockx
- Best odds: Title – 17/2; Group – 13/5
- Race position: 4
- Ranking: 116
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 2-9
- 2025 best performances: W Bratislava & Oeiras Challengers
- Recent form: L16 Metz, W Bratislava CH, Q2 Brussels, L16 Roanne CH
- Record v group opponents: v Prizmic – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-1; 2025: 0-1
Won just two of 11 matches on the main tour in 2025 but the Belgian has beaten four top-100 players since the start of August and the quality here isn’t that high. Also lost 7-6 in the third to Brandon Nakashima in Cincinnati during that second-half-of-the-season run. Along with Jodar, he holds the best serve figures in the field, although a poor tie-break record (6-13) is a concern given the format in Jeddah.
Dino Prizmic
- Best odds: Title – 15/2; Group – 2/1
- Race position: 5
- Ranking: 128
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 4-4
- 2025 best performances: QF Umag, W Bratislava & Zagreb CH
- Recent form: Q1 Stockholm, L16 Chengdu, Q2 Davis Cup (0-1), L128 US Open
- Record v group opponents: v Blockx – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 1-0; 2025: 1-0; v Engel – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2025: 1-0
Has won 37% of his return games this year – the best figure in the line-up. However, his best results have come on clay – Prizmic won the French Open junior title in 2023 – while he was struggling with injury when last seen, losing four of his last five matches of the ‘real’ season. Double faults can also be an issue so there look more likely winners.
Nishesh Basavareddy
- Best odds: Title – 9/1; Group – 9/4
- Race position: 8
- Ranking: 167
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 7-13
- 2025 best performances: SF Auckland, L16 Hangzhou, Los Cabos
- Recent form: L32 Olbia CH, Q1 Shanghai, Q1 Beijing, L16 Hangzhou
- Record v group opponents: None
Has the advantage of having played this event last year, going 1-2 in the group stage, but hasn’t played since mid-October and wasn’t going well at the time, losing four in a row. Has since added Daniil Medvedev’s former coach, Gilles Cervara, to his team but I suspect they will still be working on new things and that doesn’t always produce immediate results. The American does have more main-tour experience than any other player here, bar Tien, but I just don’t see him having enough weapons in his game right now.
Justin Engel
- Best odds: Title – 12/1; Group – 9/2
- Race position: 10
- Ranking: 187
- 2025 win-loss record (tour level): 4-5
- 2025 best performances: QF Stuttgart, W Hamburg Challenger
- Recent form: SF Bergamo CH, L32 Helsinki CH, W Hamburg CH, L32 Olbia CH
- Record v group opponents: v Prizmic – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2025: 0-1
Engel was the last man to qualify but he shouldn’t be discounted. Anyone who saw him during the grasscourt season will know his serve can do damage in quick conditions – and Jeddah has delivered those in the past two years. That serve has helped him create an impressive tie-break record, although he’s probably a little too reliant on it – the German has the worst return-games won percentage (19) in 2025 of the players in this field. Did play deep into November so may be able to pick up where he left off better than some.
VERDICT
LEARNER TIEN is head and shoulders above the rest of this field in terms of quality.
He won an ATP title the last time he played and has claimed 32 tour-level wins in 2025; the other seven players have only 21 between them.
The American, who boats an impressive 19-10 tie-break record in 2025, made the final here 12 months ago so should be at home unless conditions have changed considerably and there’s no reason to believe they have.
He’s also improved a lot since then and while I am wary of how seriously he will be taking this, the gulf in quality between Tien and second seed Blockx (88 ranking places) means I’m prepared to back the hot favourite.
A dialled in Tien should win this, although an alternative bet is to back him to win his group at 7/10, which is offered by Coral and Ladbrokes.
However, as suggested, the potential is clearly there for any player in this field to turn up and not be at their best – it would certainly be no surprise were at least one using the tournament for pre-season purposes ahead of the forthcoming trip to Australia.
With this in mind – and the fact that Fonseca won at 25/1 last year – I’m also happy to look for a bigger-priced alternative and that man is JUSTIN ENGEL.
I was impressed by the German during his quarter-final run in Stuttgart back in the summer and if conditions are as fast as they’ve been in the past, then I feel his serve will be able to do some damage this week.
Engel’s tie-break record is another boost for our bet – he’s won 27 of 39 this year and looks sure to play a few more in this Fast4 format this week. If he continues to win them at anything close to that strike-rate of 69%, he should be able to contend.
Posted at 09:20 GMT on 16/11/2025
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